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Nifty

Nifty futures has rolled at around 84% vs 76% which is higher with respect to the previous series. The Open Interest for the new contract is higher by around 25.7 lakh w.r.t to the last month contract implying fresh long positions in the Index. Combination of Long and short Long rolls was seen into the August series. For Aug futures with an average price of around 19700 which becomes a pivot for the month. Till the time Nifty trades above 19700, the resistance might only be near 20200-20300 levels. We expect the Nifty to find strong support at 19300-19400 levels for August series. 19300-20300 is the range expected for August series. FIIs Long ratio is now at 59% vs 66% Index futures implying more of hedged short positions into the August series. With the VIX being at lower levels of 10-11% first dip towards 19400 might be more prudent for fresh long positions. FIIs have bought around 17K Cr in cash market for the July month.

Bank Nifty

Banknifty futures rolled at around 77% vs 79%; lower than the last series. Banknifty futures have seen lesser positioning of around 3.46 lakh w.r.t. the last month. This might be because of lesser long positioning in Banknifty in the last 4 days. Banknifty has been at par to the Nifty in the July series, we believe this to continue in August as well. For this series, ratio wise (Banknifty/Nifty) has a resistance at 2.37 and support at 2.28 The ratio between Banknifty and Nifty currently at around 2.31. The major support for Banknifty would be around 44000 levels. We expect Banknifty to be in 44000-46800 levels for the first fortnight of August series.

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