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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 50184 as the dollar rose buoyed by a sharp rise in Treasury yields, after the Federal Reserve signaled U.S. interest rates will likely peak above where investors currently expect. The Fed raised its benchmark funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.75-4% as widely expected. The Bank of England voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise interest rates by 75 bps to 3% during its November meeting, the largest rate hike since 1989, increasing the cost of borrowing to the highest level since late-2008. There remains a chance that the U.S. economy can escape a recession as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to lower inflation, but that window of opportunity for a "soft landing" has narrowed this year as price pressures have been slow to ease, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. The "ultimate level" of the Federal Reserve's benchmark policy rate is likely higher than previously estimated, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. In remarks at a press conference after the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive meeting, Powell said there is "significant uncertainty" around the level of rates needed to bring down inflation, but "we still have some ways to go." Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 20.01% to settle at 11019 while prices are down -422 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49956 and below same could see a test of 49728 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50456, a move above could see prices testing 50728.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49728-50728.
* Gold dropped as the dollar rose buoyed by a sharp rise in Treasury yields, after Fed signaled U.S. interest rates will likely peak above where investors currently expect.
* The Fed raised its benchmark funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.75-4% as widely expected.
* Fed's Powell: 'Soft landing' chances have narrowed

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 58326 after Fed Chair Powell kept hammering a hawkish message on rates increasing, hurting demand for non-interest-baring bullion investments. Hopes the Fed will pivot were dashed after the central bank deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November 2nd and warned that the terminal rate would be higher than previously expected as it battles inflation. The Bank of England raised rates by 75 bps as expected and said further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets. The message contrast with that delivered by the Fed Chair Powell statement, when he signaled rates in the US will reach a higher peak than previously expected. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 217,000 on the week ending October 27th, below market forecasts of 220,000. The result further halted expectations of a loosening labor market that emerged with previous releases in October, backing the hawkish policy signaled by the Federal Reserve in its November meeting. The US trade gap widened to a three-month high of $73.3 billion in September of 2022 from a downwardly revised $65.7 billion deficit in August and above market forecasts of $72.2 billion. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.39% to settle at 15452 while prices are down -464 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 57437 and below same could see a test of 56547 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58829, a move above could see prices testing 59331.

Trading Ideas:
'* Silver trading range for the day is 56547-59331.
* Silver fell after Fed Chair Powell kept hammering a hawkish message on rates increasing, hurting demand.
* BOE raised rates by 75 bps and said further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 217,000

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 7341 amid heightened fears of a global recession that would crimp fuel demand, though losses were capped by concern over tight supply. OPEC oil output fell in October for the first time since June on lower exports from African members and lower output from some Gulf producers after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged a small output cut, a survey found. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.71 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, down 20,000 bpd from September which was the highest output since April 2020. Falling production knocked Venezuela's October oil exports to the fourth lowest monthly average this year, according to vessel monitoring data and documents from state-run oil firm PDVSA. Oil production and exports by PDVSA and its joint ventures have fluctuated this year due to outages, a lack of sustained investment and a shrinking pool of partners willing to continue operating in the U.S-sanctioned South American nation. OPEC pumped 29.71 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, down 20,000 bpd from September, which was the highest output since April 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -39.07% to settle at 4572 while prices are down -94 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7266 and below same could see a test of 7190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7426, a move above could see prices testing 7510.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7190-7510.
* Crude oil dropped amid heightened fears of a global recession that would crimp fuel demand.
* Crude oil and gasoline stocks fell, while refiners ramped up activity ahead of the heating season with inventories already tight
* OPEC oil output slips in October after cut pledge

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.58% at 502.2 after the EIA report showed a bigger-than-expected storage build. US utilities added 107 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended October 28th, more than market expectations of a 97 bcf build. It compares with an increase of 66 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 45 bcf. Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 97.8 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. Traders, however, noted that early-month output figures were usually revised higher later in the month. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.6 bcfd this week to 99.5 bcfd next week. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.5 bcfd so far in November with the return of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point export plant in Maryland from a maintenance outage, from 11.3 bcfd in October. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.22% to settle at 5280 while prices are down -13.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 492.4 and below same could see a test of 482.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 512.3, a move above could see prices testing 522.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 482.7-522.5.
* Natural gas dropped after the EIA report showed a bigger-than-expected storage build.
* US utilities added 107 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended October 28th, more than market expectations of a 97 bcf build.
* Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 653 as investors weighed on signs of low demand against worries of a supply crunch. Manufacturing PMIs for China both pointed to yet another contraction for factory activity, as the world’s top consumer struggles to rebound from Covid lockdowns and power shortages during Q3. To add, industrial profits from the first three quarters of the year pointed to a 2.3% drop in industrial profits in the country. Still, looming supply concerns prevent prices from significantly dropping. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. The world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne deficit in August, compared with 80,000 tonnes in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in August was 2.16 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.18 million tonnes. For the first eight months of the year, the market was in a 292,000 tonne deficit compared with a 152,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.88% to settle at 4658 while prices are down -4.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 647.6 and below same could see a test of 642.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 658.1, a move above could see prices testing 663.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 642.1-663.1.
* Copper prices dropped as investors weighed on signs of low demand against worries of a supply crunch.
* Manufacturing PMIs for China both pointed to yet another contraction for factory activity, as the world’s top consumer struggles to rebound.
* Copper market in 16,000 tonne deficit in August – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 253.55 as risk sentiment soured and demand outlook for metals dimmed due to prospects of protracted policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still undecided about how high rates would need to rise to curb inflation. The fall in metal prices was cushioned by hopes of an easing in COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China, which could boost economic growth and metals demand. On the supply side, the smelters gradually resumed the production amid sufficient supply of raw materials. On the consumption side, the market was relatively moderate without palpable changes. In the spot market, the downstream players restocked on dips, and the transactions between traders were more active with tight supply of deliverable zinc ingot. Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before, the company said as it trimmed its full-year output forecast by 6% due to knock-on effects of the Ukraine war. Glencore revised down its base forecast, or the mid-point of its forecast range, for zinc production this year by 65,000 to 945,000 tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.07% to settle at 3876 while prices are down -2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 248.9 and below same could see a test of 244.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 257.9, a move above could see prices testing 262.1.

Trading Ideas:
*  Zinc trading range for the day is 244.1-262.1.
*  Zinc fell as risk sentiment soured and demand outlook for metals dimmed due to prospects of protracted policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
*  On the supply side, the smelters gradually resumed the production amid sufficient supply of raw materials.
* Glencore cuts zinc output guidance after production drops 18% in nine months

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 200.85 as some aluminium smelters in Henan province reduced production. China Hongqiao Group will stick to its plan of moving 2 million tonnes of capacity to the country's southwest by the end of next year despite recent electricity supply disruptions there. The government ordered primary aluminium producers to cut their power usage by at least 10% in September. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in November, in line with market expectations. From the supply side, due to factors such as the advent of the heating season and the poor profitability caused by low aluminium prices, some aluminium smelters in Henan province plan to reduce production. In addition, the release of new capacity and resumption of idled capacity are slow, thus the supply pressure has somewhat eased. The domestic demand continued to be weak amid the pandemic. Aluminium ingot social inventory dropped due to fewer arrivals. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 5% to 379,700 tonnes at the end of September from 399,800 tonnes at the end of August. Global primary aluminium output in September rose 4.28% year on year to 5.702 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.14% to settle at 5011 while prices are up 0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.7 and below same could see a test of 196.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.3, a move above could see prices testing 203.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.4-203.6.
* Aluminium gains as some aluminium smelters in Henan province reduced production.
* Japan aluminium stocks down 5% m/m in September
* Global aluminium output rises 4.28% y/y in September – IAI

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 982.1 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 33.2 Rupees to end at 1142.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.14% to settle at 1100 while prices are down -0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 979.6 and below same could see a test of 977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 984.4, a move above could see prices testing 986.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 977-986.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 33.2 Rupees to end at 1142.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 7244 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7274.45 Rupees dropped -13.45 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.63% to settle at 7885 while prices are down -36 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7206 and below same could see a test of 7168 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7300, a move above could see prices testing 7356.

Trading Ideas:
# Turmeric trading range for the day is 7168-7356.
# Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region.
# As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
# Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7274.45 Rupees dropped -13.45 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 24390 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 57 Rupees to end at 24369.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.17% to settle at 5100 while prices are up 75 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24220 and below same could see a test of 24050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24565, a move above could see prices testing 24740.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24050-24740.
* Jeera prices gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 57 Rupees to end at 24369.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 30990 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 250 Rupees to end at 31220 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.53% to settle at 1724 while prices are up 70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30300 and below same could see a test of 29620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31470, a move above could see prices testing 31960.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 29620-31960.
* Cotton gained cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks.
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 250 Rupees to end at 31220 Rupees.

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