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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 47573 as a firmer dollar and rebound in U.S. Treasury yields dented the metal's allure. Surging Delta variant COVID-19 infections which raised fears over a stalling global economic recovery, had weighed on risk sentiment and sparked an equities sell-off. The International Monetary Fund is estimating this month that global growth for 2021 will be about 6%, the same as forecast in April, but with some countries growing faster and others more slowly, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

Georgieva, speaking at an online event sponsored by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that economic recovery will be held back unless the pace of COVID-19 vaccination picks up, adding that a goal of ending the pandemic by the end of 2022 will not be reached at the current pace. The IMF projected in April that 2021 global growth would hit 6%, a rate unseen since the 1970s, as vaccine availability improves and economies reopen with the help of unprecedented fiscal stimulus, particularly in the United States.

But Georgieva said the relative lack of vaccine access in developing countries and the rapid spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant was threatening to slow the recovery's momentum. U.S. Federal Reserve officials will meet next week, while the European Central Bank meeting is on Thursday.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.12% to settled at 6057 while prices down -303 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47466 and below same could see a test of 47358 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47716, a move above could see prices testing 47858.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47358-47858.
* Gold dropped as a firmer dollar and rebound in U.S. Treasury yields dented the metal's allure.
* Surging Delta variant COVID-19 infections which raised fears over a stalling global economic recovery, had weighed on risk sentiment
* IMF to keep 2021 global growth forecast at 6%

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 67137 amid worries over the adverse impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global growth despite dollar neared its recent multi-month high. Bond yields also rose as investors continued to push a rebound from an early-week rout. The Delta variant of the coronavirus is occurring across world regions, the WHO has noted. A White House official and a staff member for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tested positive for COVID-19 after being fully vaccinated.

In Japan, the government's top COVID-19 advisor said new cases in Tokyo could hit a record in early August, before the end of the Olympics. The focus shifts to the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday, with the central bank expected to announce the outcome of an 18-month strategic review. President Christine Lagarde hinted at a change to the bank's forward guidance last week, reflecting the slightly higher tolerance for inflation in the new strategy.

The International Monetary Fund is estimating this month that global growth for 2021 will be about 6%, the same as forecast in April, but with some countries growing faster and others more slowly, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5% to settled at 12944 while prices up 531 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66722 and below same could see a test of 66307 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67371, a move above could see prices testing 67605.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66307-67605.
* Silver gained amid worries over the adverse impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global growth despite dollar neared its recent multi-month high.
* Bond yields also rose as investors continued to push a rebound from an early-week rout.
* The Delta variant of the coronavirus is occurring across world regions, the WHO has noted.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.79% at 5252 as improved risk appetite provided support despite data showing an unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories. Crude inventories rose unexpectedly by 2.1 million barrels last week to 439.7 million barrels, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed.

Analysts had expected a 4.5 million-barrel drop. Still, gasoline and distillate inventories posted draws of 121,000 barrels and 1.3 million barrels, respectively. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose in May to 5.649 million barrels per day (bpd), their highest level in four months, Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) said.

Crude oil exports rose from 5.408 million bpd in April, while the country's total oil (crude oil and total oil products) exports stood at 6.94 million bpd in May compared with 6.62 million bpd the previous month. Russian oil and gas condensate output has slightly increased to 10.44 million barrels per day (bpd) on July 1-19 from 10.42 million bpd the country produced on average in June. Global demand is expected to average 99.6 million barrels per day in August, up by 5.4 mbd from April.

In Japan, the government's top COVID-19 advisor said new cases in Tokyo could hit a record in early August, before the end of the Olympics. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.78% to settled at 4926 while prices up 240 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5120 and below same could see a test of 4987 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5326, a move above could see prices testing 5399.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4987-5399.
* Crude oil prices gained as improved risk appetite provided support despite data showing an unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories.
* U.S. crude stocks rise for first time since May –EIA
* Russian oil output edges up to 10.44 mln bpd on July 1-19

 

Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.12% at 294.1 on forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand through early August. That price increase came despite expectations high gas prices would cause power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity next week than previously expected.

Rising gas prices in recent weeks and a drop in U.S. crude futures so far this week helped push the premium of oil over gas to its lowest since December 2020. Over the last several years, that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus most of their drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas because crude was the more valuable commodity. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month.

That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 92.3 bcfd this week to 93.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, have averaged 6.5 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.7 bcfd in June.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.94% to settled at 12787 while prices up 6.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 290.8 and below same could see a test of 287.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 296.7, a move above could see prices testing 299.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 287.5-299.3.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand through early August.
* That price increase came despite expectations high gas prices would cause power generators to burn more coal and less gas.
* Speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long futures and options positions for the first time in seven weeks as buyers cashed in some of their gains.

 

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 724.6 as prices recovered from lows after China’s announcement of a second sale of state reserves with an amount that was less than expected.

China will sell 30,000 tonnes of copper and other base metals on July 29 as Beijing aims to rein in skyrocketing commodity prices, a government body said. Sentiment for copper, was hit by worries about rising cases of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus around the world, from the United States to Europe to Asia, dampening the sustainability of a global economic recovery.

Yangshan copper premium was last at $35.50 a tonne, hovering around its highest since May 27, indicating rising demand for imported metal into China. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) left its benchmark interest rates for corporate and household loans steady for the 15th straight month at its July fixing, despite growing expectations for a cut after the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, which took effective starting from July 15th, releasing around CNY 1 trillion to support the economic recovery.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept unchanged at 3.85%, while the five-year remained at 4.65%. The rate was unchanged for the 15th straight month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.38% to settled at 2954 while prices up 2.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720.5 and below same could see a test of 716.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 728, a move above could see prices testing 731.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 716.3-731.3.
* Copper prices recovered from lows after China’s announcement of a second sale of state reserves with an amount that was less than expected.
* China will sell 30,000 tonnes of copper on July 29 as Beijing aims to rein in skyrocketing commodity prices, a government body said.
* Yangshan copper premium was last at $35.50 a tonne, hovering around its highest since May 27, indicating rising demand for imported metal into China.
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 241.75 as a surge in coronavirus cases around the world threatened the outlook of a global economic recovery. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 17,900 tonnes in May following a revised deficit of 13,800 tonnes in April, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed.

Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 26,900 tonnes in April. During the first five months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 40,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 335,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020.

Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. China’s fiscal revenue growth is likely to slow significantly in the second half, compared with a 21.8% year-on-year jump in the first six months, a finance ministry official said. China’s economic recovery and rising domestic producer prices boosted fiscal revenue growth in the first half, Liu Jinyun told a news briefing. First-half tax revenue rose 22.5% from a year earlier, while non-tax revenue grew 17.4%, Liu said.

Fiscal expenditures rose 4.5% in the first half from a year earlier, Liu said. Xiang Zhongxin, a second ministry official, told the same briefing that local governments had issued a net 1.0144 trillion yuan in special bonds by the end of June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.41% to settled at 1546 while prices down -1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 241.1 and below same could see a test of 240.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.2, a move above could see prices testing 242.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 240.5-242.7.
* Zinc prices dropped as a surge in coronavirus cases around the world threatened the outlook of a global economic recovery.
* Global zinc market undersupplied by 17,900 tonnes in May – ILZSG
* China's fiscal revenue growth likely to slow sharply in H2 - ministry official

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 1391.5 as the dollar stayed firm on safe-haven demand fuelled by worries over a spike in COVID-19 cases around the world. The dollar stayed near three-month highs as the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus was rampant in the United States, Europe and Asia, making greenback-priced metals more expensive to holders of other currencies. The global nickel market deficit widened to 21,300 tonnes in May compared a shortfall of 20,400 tonnes in April, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed.

During the first five months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 61,200 tonnes compared with a surplus of 61,000 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. The National Development and Reform Commission held a national price work conference, which focused on strengthening the price testing of bulk commodities, ensuring the supply, and stabilising prices of important livelihood commodities. China’s fiscal revenue growth is likely to slow significantly in the second half, compared with a 21.8% year-on-year jump in the first six months, a finance ministry official said.

China’s economic recovery and rising domestic producer prices boosted fiscal revenue growth in the first half, Liu Jinyun told a news briefing. First-half tax revenue rose 22.5% from a year earlier, while non-tax revenue grew 17.4%, Liu said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.65% to settled at 1291 while prices down -7.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1381.8 and below same could see a test of 1372 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1397.2, a move above could see prices testing 1402.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1372-1402.8.
* Nickel prices dropped as the dollar stayed firm on safe-haven demand fuelled by worries over a spike in COVID-19 cases around the world.
* The global nickel market deficit widened to 21,300 tonnes in May compared a shortfall of 20,400 tonnes in April – INSG
* NDRC focused on strengthening the price testing of bulk commodities, ensuring the supply, and stabilising prices of important livelihood commodities.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 195.25 after China’s announcement to release 90,000 mt of aluminium reserves in the second batch, was lower than expectations. Global primary aluminium output fell to 5.549 million tonnes in June from revised 5.75 million tonnes in May, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed.

Estimated Chinese production fell to 3.245 million tonnes in June from revised 3.35 million tonnes in May, it added. The current aluminium consumption showed signs of weakening, but the inventories of aluminium ingots was still going down.

Attention needs to be paid to the progress of power curtailment, the floods in Henan, inventory inflexion points, and long-short sentiment changes. Developing Asia’s economic growth this year will be slightly lower than previously projected, the Manila-based Asian Development Bank said, citing the resurgence of COVID-19 infections in countries. The ADB said recovery was underway in “developing Asia”, referring to the bank’s 46 members, including China and India, but growth was revised down to 7.2% from 7.3% projected in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report released in April.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) left its benchmark interest rates for corporate and household loans steady for the 15th straight month at its July fixing, despite growing expectations for a cut after the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.38% to settled at 1323 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 194.6 and below same could see a test of 193.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196, a move above could see prices testing 196.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.9-196.7.
* Aluminium gained after China’s announcement to release 90,000 mt of aluminium reserves in the second batch, was lower than expectations.
* Global aluminium output falls to 5.549 mln T in June – IAI
* ADB trims developing Asia's 2021 economic growth forecast to 7.2%

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 958.1 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started.

However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field.

Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.2 Rupees to end at 1077.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.42% to settled at 940 while prices down -3.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 950.2 and below same could see a test of 942.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 963, a move above could see prices testing 967.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 942.2-967.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.2 Rupees to end at 1077.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.9% at 8127 amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing. Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.

Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent. Planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. China's soybean imports in June hit their third-highest monthly level on record, customs data showed, boosted by a jump in shipments from Brazil.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 11 Rupees to 8222 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.26% to settled at 42340 while prices up 229 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7895 and below same could see a test of 7664 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8267, a move above could see prices testing 8408.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7664-8408.
* Soyabean prices gained amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing.
* Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.
* Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  11 Rupees to 8222 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 1379 on profit booking after prices gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1397.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.35% to settled at 35230 while prices down -18 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1370 and below same could see a test of 1362 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1389, a move above could see prices testing 1400.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1362-1400.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1397.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.
 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 1105.5 on profit booking amid decline in July exports so far, but losses were capped by a supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said.

China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report.

India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. SEA said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1124.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.59% to settled at 4003 while prices down -11.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1098.6 and below same could see a test of 1091.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1114.1, a move above could see prices testing 1122.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1091.8-1122.8.
* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking amid decline in July exports so far, but losses were capped by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* Export shipments from Malaysia during July 1-20 fell 7.9% to 863,586 tonnes compared with the same period in June
* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association has estimated production during July 1-15 fell by 3.5% from the corresponding period in June
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1124.5 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 7424 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both.

European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -58.75 Rupees to end at 7634 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.25% to settled at 47660 while prices up 52 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7344 and below same could see a test of 7264 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7471, a move above could see prices testing 7518.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7264-7518.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -58.75 Rupees to end at 7634 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 7546 on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.

The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month.

At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7317.85 Rupees gained 60.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.75% to settled at 11365 while prices down -8 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7498 and below same could see a test of 7450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7586, a move above could see prices testing 7626.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7450-7626.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingoli due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7317.85 Rupees gained 60.7 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 13545 on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.

Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year.

Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 37.85 Rupees to end at 13690.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.6% to settled at while prices down -65 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13455 and below same could see a test of 13370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13640, a move above could see prices testing 13740.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13370-13740.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 37.85 Rupees to end at 13690.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.12% at 26260 as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean over the traditional cash crop, implying a gradual shift in the cropping pattern in the region.

Overall area under sowing for Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week. About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (90.33 lakh ha).

Cotton sowing has taken place only on 67% of the expected area of 6.97 lakh hectare in the Aurangabad division and 65% of the expected area (3.58 lakh hectare) in the Latur division. India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales (170 kg each) in the current season to September as domestic demand has picked up.

But some estimates are pegging them higher than 100 lakh bales against a record 120-plus lakh bales last season. CCI, which had nearly 207 lakh bales of cotton stocks, could be left with 18 lakh bales by the end of the season, the CMD said, adding that most of the sales were meant for domestic consumption.

In spot market, Cotton gained by 170 Rupees to end at 26060 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.47% to settled at 2169 while prices up 290 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26140 and below same could see a test of 26010 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26350, a move above could see prices testing 26430.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26010-26430.
* Cotton gained as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean
* Overall area under Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 170 Rupees to end at 26060 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 2.49% at 5026 as support seen as the Central Government has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same. Amid tremendous pressure from the sector, the government increased the permissible stock quantity of pulses allowed for wholesalers and millers with a complete exemption for importers. Under the revised stock limit, wholesalers can now keep 500 metric tonnes (MT) of pulses at a time provided the quantity of any one pulse does not exceed 200 MT.

Under the old order, the maximum stock that wholesalers could keep was 200 MT, with the quantity of a single pulse restricted to a maximum of 100 MT. It may be noted that Government of India has been making continuous efforts to crackdown on prices of essential commodities like pulses and had taken various measures like stock declaration of pulses by the stockholders of different categories on 14thMay,2021 and thereafter imposition of stock limits on pulses on 2nd July,2021.

Overall area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week. About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).

In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 95.85 Rupees to end at 4800 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.16% to settled at 117670 while prices up 122 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4951 and below same could see a test of 4876 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5071, a move above could see prices testing 5116.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4876-5116.
* Chana gains as support seen as Centre has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same.
* Overall area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 95.85 Rupees to end at 4800 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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