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Gold yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 47676 as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April. Key U.S. economic readings showed a bigger-than-expected rise in consumer prices and weekly jobless claims dropping to a 14-month low, intensifying concerns over rising inflation and prospects of higher interest rates. The Commerce Department said that retail sales were unchanged in April after recording a 10.7% surge in March, boosted by stimulus checks. But another acceleration in retail sales is likely in the coming months as the U.S. economy reopens and Americans spend the savings they have been amassing. Federal Reserve officials, however, have maintained they expect any rise in inflation to be short-lived, while pledging to keep rates low until the economy reaches full employment. Physical gold was sold at the biggest discount in over seven months in India as pandemic-led restrictions kept jewellery stores closed during a key gold-buying festival in the world's second biggest consumer. Discounts rose to $5 an ounce over official domestic prices – the biggest since the week of Oct. 1 – inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, versus last week's $3 discount. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.1% to settled at 7039 while prices up 238 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47439 and below same could see a test of 47201 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47813, a move above could see prices testing 47949.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 47201-47949.

* Gold gains as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April.

* Federal Reserve officials, have maintained they expect any rise in inflation to be short-lived, while pledging to keep rates low until the economy reaches full employment.

* Gold extended gains as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April.

Silver           

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 71085 as the dollar weakened and yields eased on dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Several Fed officials downplayed an imminent rise in interest rates despite a sharp rise in inflation. Increases in prices above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal should be temporary and the Fed would not raise rates until it sees inflation above target for a long time, said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Output at U.S. factories increased in April as operations at plants that were damaged by February’s stormy weather in the South came back online, offsetting a decline in the production of motor vehicles. Manufacturing production rose 0.4% last month after surging 3.1% in March, the Federal Reserve said. Manufacturing production remains a touch below its pre-pandemic level. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April as the boost from stimulus checks faded, but an acceleration is likely in the coming months amid record savings and a reopening economy. The report from the Commerce Department also showed retail sales in March were much stronger than previously estimated, setting consumer spending on a higher growth path heading into the second quarter. Perth Mint's silver sales rose in April on strong demand, while gold sales eased due to lower output. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.69% to settled at 9680 while prices up 612 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70294 and below same could see a test of 69502 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71669, a move above could see prices testing 72252.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 69502-72252.

* Silver gained as the dollar weakened and yields eased on dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

* Several Fed officials downplayed an imminent rise in interest rates despite a sharp rise in inflation.

* Increases in prices above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal should be temporary

Crude oil           

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.44% at 4786 with gains in equity markets and optimism over the pace of the economic recovery helping underpin sentiment. Concerns over a disruption in the supply chain eased after the Colonial Pipeline Company announced that it was restarting pipeline operations and that the supply chain would "return to normal" sometime soon. The IEA cut its global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2021, saying that the coronavirus crisis in many parts of Asia, particularly India, has clouded the outlook for consumption. Concerns are growing that the untamed spread of the coronavirus in India and in Southeast Asia will dent oil demand. Prices also came under pressure as a broader surge in commodity prices, labor shortage and much stronger-than-expected consumer prices data have stoked inflation concerns that could force the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The OPEC reaffirmed projections for a robust recovery in global oil demand in 2021, with growth in China and the United States overcoming the impact of the coronavirus crisis in India, which has continued to infect thousands. World oil supply rose 330 kb/d to 93.4 mb/d in April and will increase further in May as the OPEC+ alliance continues to ease output cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -40.14% to settled at 2570 while prices up 114 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4695 and below same could see a test of 4604 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4834, a move above could see prices testing 4882.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4604-4882.

* Crude oil prices gains with gains in equity markets and optimism over the pace of the economic recovery helping underpin sentiment.

* Concerns over a disruption in the supply chain eased after the Colonial Pipeline Company announced that it was restarting pipeline operations

* The IEA cut its global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2021, saying that the coronavirus crisis in many parts of Asia, particularly India

Nat.Gas           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 216.4 as exports declined and production edged up, as well as on forecasts for mild weather and lower demand next week. Traders noted that price decline came even though the weather was expected to warm up in two weeks, which should prompt power generators to burn more gas as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April, but still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 87.2 bcfd this week to 80.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder before rising to 85.4 bcfd in two weeks with the start of air conditioning season. because U.S. LNG feedgas was on track to hold near 10.1 bcfd for a third day in a row on Friday, its lowest since early March when the plants were recovering from the February freeze in Texas, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv. The decline was due to reductions at Cameron in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.64% to settled at 16682 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 214.4 and below same could see a test of 212.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.6, a move above could see prices testing 222.9.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 212.5-222.9.

*  Natural gas slipped as exports declined and production edged up, as well as on forecasts for mild weather and lower demand next week.

* Price decline came even though the weather was expected to warm up in two weeks, which should prompt power generators to burn more gas

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 773.8 as worries of tightening credit and potential commodities price cap in China dampened sentiment. China’s new bank loans fell more than expected in April while money supply growth slowed to a 21-month low, as the central bank gradually scales back pandemic-driven stimulus to reduce debt and financial risks in hot areas of the economy. Earlier this week, China’s state council said the country, the world’s biggest metals consumer, will monitor changes in overseas and domestic markets and effectively cope with a fast increase in commodity prices, without specifying how. Russian metals producer Nornickel has resumed full operations at its nickel-copper Oktyabrsky mine hit by flooding this year. The global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. The global world refined copper market showed a 28,000 tonnes surplus in January, compared with a 1,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first month of the year, the market was in a 28,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 34,000 tonnes deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.29% to settled at 3391 while prices down -5.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 767.8 and below same could see a test of 761.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 780.7, a move above could see prices testing 787.7.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 761.9-787.7.

* Copper prices fell as worries of tightening credit and potential commodities price cap in China dampened sentiment.

* CME raises Comex copper futures (Hg) maintenance margins by 8.2% to $6,600 per contract from $6,100 for May 2021

* The global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 231.15 as output at U.S. factories increased in April as operations at plants that were damaged by February’s stormy weather in the South came back online, offsetting a decline in the production of motor vehicles. Fears that central banks will act to contain rising inflation hit stock markets and commodities while boosting the dollar and bond yields. New bank loans in China fell more than expected in April and money supply growth slowed to a 21-month low, pointing to slower growth in the world's biggest metals consumer. The government has also said it will monitor and effectively cope with a rapid increase in commodity prices, without specifying how, while warnings of a crackdown on misbehaviour in the steel market have hammered Chinese steel prices. Zinc and zinc alloy output from 51 Chinese smelters in April was at 438,000 tonnes, up 3.7% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month on a daily basis. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 6,000 mt in the week ended May 14 to 176,300 mt. The stocks fell 11,600 mt from Monday May 10. Stocks in Shanghai decreased downstream restocked when zinc prices fell. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.8% to settled at 1741 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 228.6 and below same could see a test of 225.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 232.9, a move above could see prices testing 234.5.   

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 225.9-234.5.

* Zinc prices gained as output at U.S. factories increased in April as operations at plants that were damaged by February’s stormy weather in the South came back online

*  Fears that central banks will act to contain rising inflation hit stock markets and commodities while boosting the dollar and bond yields.

* China’s new bank loans fell more than expected in April while money supply growth slowed to a 21-month low

Nickel           

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.61% at 1302.6 as U.S. dollar edged lower after a report that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April and as fears of accelerating inflation receded. The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales were unchanged in April after recording a 10.7% surge in March, boosted by stimulus checks. But another acceleration in retail sales is likely in the coming months as the U.S. economy reopens and Americans spend the savings they have been amassing. Output at U.S. factories increased in April as operations at plants that were damaged by February’s stormy weather in the South came back online, offsetting a decline in the production of motor vehicles. Manufacturing production rose 0.4% last month after surging 3.1% in March, the Federal Reserve said. Manufacturing production remains a touch below its pre-pandemic level. US first-time filings for jobless claims last week fell to a new low since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Producer prices rose more than expected in April, adding to inflationary pressures. Mortgage interest rates fell for the second consecutive week, approaching their lowest level on record. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 600 mt from a week ago and stood at 8,700 mt as of May 14, showed data. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10% to settled at 1936 while prices up 20.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1274.1 and below same could see a test of 1245.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1317.8, a move above could see prices testing 1333.1.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1245.7-1333.1.

* Nickel gains as U.S. dollar edged lower after a report that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April

* Output at U.S. factories increased in April as operations at plants that were damaged by February’s stormy weather

* Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 600 mt from a week ago and stood at 8,700 mt

Aluminium           

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 194.15 as China’s domestic aluminium supply will increase as new capacities have been put into operation and as the import arbitrage window opened intermittently. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 54,000 mt from the week before to 1.06 million mt as of May 13. Shipments of aluminium billet out of warehouses fell 29,700 mt or 44% from the prior week to 37,000 mt as the Labour Day holiday shortened the number of trading days. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China dropped 33,900 mt from the previous week to 105,200 mt as of May 13. Stocks shrank by 56% in Huzhou and dropped 12,000 mt in Foshan. Although the month of May is usually a high season for aluminium consumption, large fluctuations in prices may curb demand. China Hongqiao Group will put a secondary, or recycled, aluminium production line into operation in its home province of Shandong at the end of this year. The joint project with Germany's Scholz Recycling in an industrial park in Zouping will be able to process 500,000 tonnes per year of aluminium scrap and reduce average annual carbon emissions by 1.9 million tonnes when fully operational. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.54% to settled at 1231 while prices down -1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 191.9 and below same could see a test of 189.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.4, a move above could see prices testing 198.6. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 189.6-198.6.

* Aluminium dropped as China’s domestic aluminium supply will increase as new capacities have been put into operation

* social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 54,000 mt

* China Hongqiao Group will put a secondary, or recycled, aluminium production line into operation in its home province of Shandong

 Mentha oil          

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 963.3 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.81% to settled at 23 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959.2 and below same could see a test of 955.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 966.2, a move above could see prices testing 969.1.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 955.1-969.1.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand 

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 7316 on profit booking after Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, up only slightly from the 120 million expected at the end of 2020/21. The USDA projected a U.S. 2021/22 soybean crop of 4.405 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre. Brazilian government supply agency Conab trimmed its forecast of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean crop to 135.4 million tonnes, from 135.54 million in April. The USDA left its estimate of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean crop unchanged at 136 million tonnes. Madhya Pradesh, which had imposed restrictions on the sale of soyabean seeds outside the state, has revoked its order following protests by the Maharashtra government. After Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra is the biggest soyabean producing state in the country with farmers growing the oilseed in over 35-40 lakh hectares yearly. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -98 Rupees to 7777 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.89% to settled at 54865 while prices down -77 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7244 and below same could see a test of 7172 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7394, a move above could see prices testing 7472.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7172-7472.

* Soyabean dropped on profit booking after Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22

* Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase.

* Madhya Pradesh, which had imposed restrictions on the sale of soyabean seeds, has revoked its order following protests by the Maharashtra government.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -98 Rupees to 7777 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil         

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 1454.2 as concerns over tight global supplies underpinned the market. Support also seen as vegetable oils import, including both edible and non-edible oils, increased 32 per cent during April this year, while it grew 1.7 per cent during the first six months of the current oil year November 2020 to April 2021). According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India, 1.05 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils were imported in April 2021 compared with 798,715 tonnes in the same period a year ago. The imports comprised 1.02 mt of edible oils and 23,435 tonnes of non-edible oils. The overall import of vegetable oils stood at 6.42 mt during November-April 2020-21 against 6.31 mt during the corresponding period a year ago. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1496 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.54% to settled at 34200 while prices up 12.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1441 and below same could see a test of 1428 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1462, a move above could see prices testing 1470.

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1428-1470.

* Ref soyoil gained as concerns over tight global supplies underpinned the market.

* Support also seen as vegetable oils import, including both edible and non-edible oils, increased 32 per cent during April this year.

* According to SEA, 1.05 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils were imported in April 2021 compared with 798,715 tonnes in the same period a year ago.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1496 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 1248.5 as tightening edible oil supplies across the world underpinned prices. However upside seen limited amid rising inventories and upbeat outlook for U.S crop plantings countered a surge in May exports so far. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1% from the previous month to 1.55 million tonnes, data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes, while palm oil exports expanded 12.6% to 1.34 tonnes, MPOB said. Indian edible oil refiners are curtailing palm oil imports for May and June as most states have imposed curbs on hotels and restaurants to arrest rising coronavirus infections, denting institutional demand, industry officials said. Lower imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of the edible oil, could limit a rally in benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures , which hit their highest level since 2008. The country was expected to import 850,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in May and June, but now industry officials estimate imports could come down to around 650,000 tonnes. India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and other oils such as soy and sunflower from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 21 Rupees to end at 1272.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.52% to settled at 4420 while prices up 5.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1241.2 and below same could see a test of 1233.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1254.6, a move above could see prices testing 1260.7.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1233.9-1260.7.

* Crude palm oil gained as tightening edible oil supplies across the world underpinned prices. 

*  Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1% from the previous month to 1.55 million tonnes

* Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes

*  In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 21 Rupees to end at 1272.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed          

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -2.07% at 7345 on profit booking after U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.69% to settled at 68010 while prices down -155 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7276 and below same could see a test of 7208 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7451, a move above could see prices testing 7558.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7208-7558.

* Mustard seed prices dropped on profit booking after U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

*  Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

*  European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric          

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 7806 on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists’ purchases dropping. Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). The value of shipments increased 19 per cent to ₹2,461 crore during the period. According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.71% to settled at 11165 while prices down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7712 and below same could see a test of 7618 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7950, a move above could see prices testing 8094.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7618-8094.

* Turmeric dropped as pressure seen after prices dropped across various APMC yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand.

* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases.

* Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.

Jeera            

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 14100 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.09% to settled at 6249 while prices down -35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13995 and below same could see a test of 13890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14265, a move above could see prices testing 14430.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13890-14430.

* Jeera dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments.

*  As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

*  The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton           

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 22050 as US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India’s cotton production next season (October 2021 - September 2022) at 378 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), up four per cent from its current season’s estimate of 362.5 lakh bales. But the Indian textile industry feels that it is too early to make any projection, given the vagaries of the South-West Monsoon. In its “Cotton and Products Update”, it said that the higher production would be in view of yield increasing by five per cent as the South-West Monsoon has been forecast to be normal by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The projection has been made despite the USDA pegging the area under cotton lower at 129 lakh hectares compared with 130 lakh hectares. Sowing of cotton is scheduled to begin shortly in States such as Punjab and Haryana, while in other States it will start next month. The USDA’s cotton projection next season is also against India’s Committee for Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), which has all stakeholders including government officials on board, estimating the current season’s production at 360 lakh bales at its meeting held on April 30 this year. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 22430 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.97% to settled at 6100 while prices down -210 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21870 and below same could see a test of 21700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22180, a move above could see prices testing 22320.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21700-22320.

* Cotton prices dropped as output projected at 378 lakh bales on 5% higher yield

* But the Indian textile industry feels that it is too early to make any projection, given the vagaries of the South-West Monsoon.

* Sowing of cotton is scheduled to begin shortly in States such as Punjab and Haryana, while in other States it will start next month.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 22430 Rupees.

Chana           

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 5428 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, thus increase in total summer area coverage by 13.09 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of last year in the country. Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha. Pressure also seen as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand during the upcoming festival season. In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets. Government agency Nafed has purchased 1.52 lakh tonnes of gram in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. According to the second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture, a record 116 million tonnes of gram production is expected in the 2020-21 season. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -42.3 Rupees to end at 5428.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.45% to settled at 154470 while prices down -20 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5398 and below same could see a test of 5369 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5469, a move above could see prices testing 5511. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5369-5511.

* Chana dropped on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. 

* The farmers are bringing in lesser quantum for sale in the mandis currently, in anticipation of getting better returns for their produce.

* Estimations of a lower crop size against previous estimates and a lower carry over inventory for this year shall continue supporting the prices.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -42.3 Rupees to end at 5428.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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