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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 50368 as the dollar retreated after U.S. jobs data was mostly in line with expectations, but ended the week with losses pressured by an elevated interest rate environment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report. Gold has been pressured off late as global central banks raise interest rates to fight soaring inflation. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Calls for an unprecedented 75-basis-point lift to interest rates from the European Central Bank next week are on a knife's edge. Gold premiums in top consumer China continued their rapid ascent to their highest since the tail-end of 2016 on soft buying interest, while a drop in local prices prompted Indian dealers to charge premiums for the first time in nearly four months. In Shanghai, gold was priced as much as $25 an ounce over the international gold prices, the highest since December 2016. That compares with $8-$16 quoted last week. In India, premiums on gold sales made a comeback as a hefty correction in local prices boosted retail demand. Premium of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, were charged, up from the last week's discount of $7. In Singapore, gold traders charged $1.50-$2.30 over spot prices, unchanged from recent weeks. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.93% to settled at 12120 while prices up 298 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50083 and below same could see a test of 49798 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50620, a move above could see prices testing 50872.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 49798-50872.
* Gold bounced as the dollar retreated after U.S. jobs data was mostly in line with expectations
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report.
* In India, Premium of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, were charged, up from the last week's discount of $7.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 53022 as the NFP report came roughly in line with forecasts, showing the US economy added 315K jobs in August while wage growth slowed. Figures offered investors some relief over the need of faster interest rate hikes, still pricing in a 75bps rate hike in the fed funds rate this month. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield also edged lower but hold close to 15-year highs at 3.41%. U.S. employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to deliver a third 75 basis points interest rate hike this month, though the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report. Data for July was revised slightly down to show payrolls surging 526,000 instead of 528,000 as previously reported. The employment report came a week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned Americans of a painful period of slow economic growth and possibly rising unemployment as the U.S. central bank aggressively tightens monetary policy to quell inflation. New orders for US manufactured goods fell 1% month-over-month in July of 2022, after a downwardly revised 1.8% rise in June and missing market forecasts of a 0.2% increase. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.25% to settled at 27661 while prices up 420 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 52490 and below same could see a test of 51959 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53609, a move above could see prices testing 54197.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 51959-54197

* Silver rose as the NFP report came roughly in line with forecasts, showing the US economy added 315K jobs in August

*  The two-year Treasury yield also edged lower but hold close to 15-year highs at 3.41%.

* U.S. employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 6967 on expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output cuts at a meeting on Sept. 5, though concern over China's COVID-19 curbs and weakness in the global economy continued to limit gains. OPEC+ are due to meet on Sept. 5 against a backdrop of expected demand declines, though top producer Saudi Arabia says supply remains tight. OPEC+ revised market balances for this year and now sees demand lagging supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), against 900,000 bpd forecast previously. The producer group expects a market deficit of 300,000 bpd in its base case for 2023.The Kremlin said that Russia would stop selling oil to countries that impose price caps on Russia's energy resources - caps that Moscow said would lead to significant destabilisation of the global oil market." Companies that impose a price cap will not be among the recipients of Russian oil," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call, endorsing comments made by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Iran will raise its oil production capacity to over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the current Iranian year that ends in March 2023, the chief executive officer of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) told. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.01% to settled at 8535 while prices up 40 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6881 and below same could see a test of 6794 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7114, a move above could see prices testing 7260.
 Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6794-7260.
* Crude oil rose on expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output cuts at a meeting
* Russia says it will stop selling oil to countries that set price caps
* OPEC+ revised market balances for this year and now sees demand lagging supply by 400,000 bpd, against 900,000 bpd forecast previously
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.66% at 706.2 taking cues from a retreat in European prices ahead of a planned resumption of Russian gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Report showed U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 26, just above the 58 bcf build forecast in a Reuters poll. The restart delay at the fire-hit Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas leaves more fuel in the United States for utilities to refill storage. Gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), its highest since August 8th, according to data provider Refinitiv. A series of heatwaves this summer across the US has sent demand from gas-fired power plants to all-time highs and expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages have been supporting prices. The European Union is reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas and has made some progress. Norway has displaced Russia as the top supplier of NatGas to the EU as energy supply chains are rejiggered, as Moscow reduces flows to EU countries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.34% to settled at 4206 while prices down -34.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 683.9 and below same could see a test of 661.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 733.2, a move above could see prices testing 760.2.
Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 661.6-760.2.
* Natural gas slipped taking cues from a retreat in European prices ahead of a planned resumption of Russian gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
* Report showed U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 26
* The restart delay at the fire-hit Freeport LNG export plant in Texas leaves more fuel in the United States for utilities to refill storage.
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Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 633.65 as renewed Covid lockdowns in top metals consumer China and tightening global monetary conditions dampened sentiment and weakened the demand outlook. Chile reported an 8.6% yoy output drop to 430,028 tonnes in July. The Chinese city of Chengdu locked down its 21 million residents starting Thursday, joining other major cities such as Shenzhen and Dalian in imposing fresh Covid restrictions that threaten further economic damages. Solid US manufacturing and labor data also gave the Federal Reserve more room to tackle inflation with higher interest rates, while record high inflation in the euro zone bolstered speculations that the European Central Bank would tighten more aggressively despite an energy crisis. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, expects its output of the red metal to fall further next year amid project delays. Codelco lowered its copper production outlook for 2022 to about 1.5 million tonnes last week, blaming lower recovery levels at some of its mines and ore grades at the Chuquicamata site. The company previously had expected to produce 1.61 million tonnes of copper this year. Codelco started exploring for the ultra-light metal, which is key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, in Maricunga earlier this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 6244 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 629.4 and below same could see a test of 625 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 638.9, a move above could see prices testing 644.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 625-644.
* Copper seen under pressure as renewed Covid lockdowns in China and tightening global monetary conditions dampened sentiment and weakened the demand outlook.
* Chile reported an 8.6% yoy output drop to 430,028 tonnes in July.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.4 % from last Friday, the exchange said
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.72% at 284 on concerns about lower demand for the metal mostly used to galvanize steel. Last month, it rallied as high electricity prices forced one of Europe’s biggest smelters to halt production. The European Union is now moving to intervene in the energy market. Pressure seen as hawkish voices from US Fed officials weighed on the market sentiment. Pressure seen as demand outlook was clouded further by fresh data from major global economies that signaled tepid growth. LME inventory rose 75 mt to 77,050 mt, up 0.1%. August refined zinc output is estimated at 477,500 mt amid influences like power rationing and maintenance, lower than the original target set at the beginning of the month. The output is likely to rebound to 530,000 mt with the recovery of power and ore supply. The pandemic resurged in some places in China, which is worth attention though it has not impacted the production yet. The temperature in Sichuan has dropped and rainfall has increased recently, the power shortage in the province has eased, and local production has begun to resume. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the metal’s production dropped nearly three per cent in the first half of this year to 5.96 million tonnes (mt) compared with 6.15 mt a year ago. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.33% to settled at 1474 while prices down -7.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 279.6 and below same could see a test of 275.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.9, a move above could see prices testing 297.7.
Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.1-297.7.
* Zinc dropped on concerns about lower demand for the metal mostly used to galvanize steel.
* Pressure seen as demand outlook was clouded further by fresh data from major global economies that signaled tepid growth.
* August refined zinc output is estimated at 477,500 mt amid influences like power rationing and maintenance

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 203.05 after China’s lockdown of megacity Chengdu added to demand woes. Dutch aluminium maker Aldel said it was moth-balling the remaining capacity at its facility in Farmsum, citing continuing high energy prices and a lack of government support. "A controlled pause makes it possible for (Aldel) to be ready to start production again when circumstances improve," the company said in a statement. Slovenia's Talum has cut production of primary aluminium to around 20% of its smelter capacity, a spokesperson said, joining other European firms forced to reduce output by sky-high energy costs. Smelting aluminium is extremely energy intensive and power prices in Europe have increased up to tenfold since the start of 2021, making production at some sites unviable. On the news front, recently the market rumoured potential hydropower shortage in Yunnan province, worrying the market players about aluminium production in the region. Meanwhile, after the central banks of Europe and the United States expressed their firmness in reining high inflation, the commodity asset prices remained under pressure with an extensive correction. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 683,000 mt as of September 1, up 4,000 mt from a week ago, but 66,000 mt lower than in the same period last year. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.37% to settled at 4576 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202 and below same could see a test of 201 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.5, a move above could see prices testing 206.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201-206.
* Aluminum dropped after China’s lockdown of megacity Chengdu added to demand woes.
* Dutch aluminium maker Aldel halts remaining production
* Slovenia's Talum cuts primary aluminium output to 20% of capacity
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 989.1 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 5.5 Rupees to end at 1126.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.68% to settled at 1618 while prices up 10.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 977.2 and below same could see a test of 965.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 996.5, a move above could see prices testing 1003.8.
Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.2-1003.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 5.5 Rupees to end at 1126.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 7268 amid profit booking on report of better sowing. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7438.8 Rupees gained 32.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.16% to settled at 7020 while prices down -18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7224 and below same could see a test of 7178 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7312, a move above could see prices testing 7354.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7178-7354.
*  Turmeric dropped amid profit booking on report of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7438.8 Rupees gained 32.05 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 25770 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 199.8 Rupees to end at 24818.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.96% to settled at 4944 while prices up 115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25530 and below same could see a test of 25295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25970, a move above could see prices testing 26175.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 25295-26175.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 199.8 Rupees to end at 24818.45 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton 

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 37680 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.61% to 125.69 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 117.68 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -200 Rupees to end at 45180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.28% to settled at 700 while prices down -340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37550 and below same could see a test of 37410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37890, a move above could see prices testing 38090.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 37410-38090.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.81% to 125.69 lakh hectares in 2022
* However, crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -200 Rupees to end at 45180 Rupees.
 

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