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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 47120 as investors awaited August U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later this week. Further hopes for more policy support overshadowed economic risks from a surge in COVID-19 cases. Following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, the spotlight shifts to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which could shed more light on the Fed’s tapering strategy. The market is expecting an increase of 728,000 jobs, unemployment to fall to 5.2% from 5.4%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month-on-month. Powell said tapering of the U.S. central bank's bond-buying program could happen this year but gave no indication as to the exact timeline for the Fed to start cutting its asset purchases, sending gold higher. Physical gold demand in India was subdued as jewellers held off purchases, hoping for a dip in prices, but top consumer China saw a slight uptick in activity. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, compared to last week's $3 premiums. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 28.6% in July from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.71% to settled at 11461 while prices down -44 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46820 and below same could see a test of 46520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47376, a move above could see prices testing 47632.  

 

Trading Ideas:

Gold trading range for the day is 46520-47632.

Gold prices dropped as investors awaited August U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later this week.

The market is expecting an increase of 728,000 jobs, unemployment to fall to 5.2% from 5.4%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month-on-month.

Further hopes for more policy support overshadowed economic risks from a surge in COVID-19 cases.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 63366 as hopes for more policy support overshadowed economic risks from a surge in COVID-19 cases and concerns over China's regulatory clampdown on private industries. U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as concerns about soaring new COVID-19 infections as well as higher inflation dampened the outlook for the economy. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 113.8 this month, the lowest since February, from 125.1 in July. U.S. single-family home prices in 20 key urban markets rose in June from a year earlier at the fastest pace on record, a closely watched survey showed. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 19.1% through the 12 months ended in June from an upwardly revised 17.1% in the 12 months through May. Growth worries resurfaced after official data showed China's services sector contracted in August for the first time since the height of the pandemic early last year. China's factory activity also expanded at a slower pace in August as businesses and the broader economy came under increasing pressure due to domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, high raw material prices and slowing exports. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.81% to settled at 11257 while prices down -221 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62863 and below same could see a test of 62359 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63982, a move above could see prices testing 64597. 

 

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62359-64597.

Silver dropped as hopes for more policy support overshadowed economic risks from a surge in COVID-19 cases

 U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as concerns about soaring new COVID-19 infections

U.S. single-family home prices in 20 key urban markets rose in June from a year earlier at the fastest pace on record

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 5026 as OPEC and allies geared up for a meeting on Wednesday amid calls from the United States to pump more crude. Prices were also under pressure from concerns that power outages and flooding in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida will cut crude demand from refineries. Crude was also weighed down by weaker manufacturing data from China, where factory activity expanded at a slower pace in August compared with the previous month. The Wednesday meeting will likely proceed with the plan without changes and despite pressure from the United States to pump more. Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the United States on Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane, knocked out at least 94% of offshore Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production and caused "catastrophic" damage to Louisiana's grid. On the supply side, about 1.72 million bpd of oil production and 2.01 million cubic feet per day of natural gas output remained offline in the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico following evacuations at 288 platforms. Kazakhstan considers the measures taken by the global pact of OPEC and non-OPEC producers are sufficient to stabilise the crude oil market, Russia's TASS news agency quoted Kazakh energy minister Nurlan Nogayev as saying. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.5% to settled at 4018 while prices down -45 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4981 and below same could see a test of 4935 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5075, a move above could see prices testing 5123.    

 

Trading Ideas:

Crude oil trading range for the day is 4935-5123.

Crude oil slipped as OPEC and allies geared up for a meeting on Wednesday amid calls from the United States to pump more crude.

Prices were also under pressure from concerns that power outages and flooding in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida will cut crude demand from refineries.

Kazakhstan says it considers existing OPEC+ decision as sufficient to stabilise market

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 318.3 in response to lowered production forecasts as traders monitored Hurricane Ida's impact on demand. U.S. production is forecast to dip to 89.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 92.5 bcfd last week. Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production has averaged 91.7 bcfd so far in August, versus 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With European and Asian gas both trading over $16 per mmBtu, compared with just over $4 for the U.S. fuel, analysts have said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the liquefied natural gas (LNG) the United States can produce. With a cooler season around the corner, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 94.3 bcfd last week to 92.2 bcfd this week, as power generators burn less of the fuel with air conditioning demand easing. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2014 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.13% to settled at 14192 while prices up 2.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 310 and below same could see a test of 301.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 324.5, a move above could see prices testing 330.8.       

 

Trading Ideas:

Natural gas trading range for the day is 301.8-330.8.

Natural gas rose in response to lowered production forecasts as traders monitored Hurricane Ida's impact on demand.

U.S. production is forecast to dip to 89.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 92.5 bcfd last week.

Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production has averaged 91.7 bcfd so far in August, versus 91.6 bcfd in July.

 

 

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 720.95 as China's businesses and the broader economy came under increasing pressure last month as factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction, hurt by coronavirus-related restrictions and high raw material prices. In China, the August manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1, and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both fell to 18-month low amid off-season, spreading COVID-19 and floods. The world's second-biggest economy staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but growth has recently shown signs of losing steam due to domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, slowing exports, tighter measures to tame hot property prices and a campaign to reduce carbon emissions. The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) was 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. In a worrying sign for China's slow consumption recovery, a gauge of activity for the services sector in August slipped into sharp contraction for the first time since the height of the pandemic in February last year. U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as concerns about soaring new COVID-19 infections as well as higher inflation dampened the outlook for the economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.78% to settled at 4179 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 716.3 and below same could see a test of 711.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 725.2, a move above could see prices testing 729.3.  

 

Trading Ideas:

Copper trading range for the day is 711.5-729.3.

Copper prices dropped as China's economy under pressure as factory activity slows in Aug, services contract

In China, the August manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1, and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both fell to 18-month low

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August

 

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 244.8 as China’s official PMI for August was disappointing, indicating a potentially slowing economy growth in the future. Meanwhile, euro zone harmonized CPI for August stood above expectations, showing smooth economy recovery from the pandemic. While short supply still existed in the continent. Activity in China’s services sector slipped into contraction in August, official data showed, as COVID-19 curbs weighed on consumption in the world’s second-largest economy. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 47.5 in August versus 53.3 in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Though slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted the services sector. But a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain led to strict containment measures, weighing on business activity and spending. The official August composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 48.9 from July’s 52.4. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.04% to settled at 998 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 244 and below same could see a test of 243.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 245.5, a move above could see prices testing 246.3.  

 

 

Trading Ideas:

Zinc trading range for the day is 243.3-246.3.

Zinc prices dropped as China’s official PMI for August was disappointing, indicating a potentially slowing economy growth in the future.

Meanwhile, euro zone harmonized CPI for August stood above expectations, showing smooth economy recovery from the pandemic.

Activity in China's services sector contracts in August - official PMI

 

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 1446 after prices hit a record 149,870 yuan a tonne and LME nickel advanced 3.3% to $19,640 a tonne on low inventories. Nickel prices sustained its momentum with support from the cost front, strong demand from new energy sector, low inventory and rising stainless steel. Activity in China’s services sector slipped into contraction in August, official data showed, as COVID-19 curbs weighed on consumption in the world’s second-largest economy. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 47.5 in August versus 53.3 in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. On the macro front, former Chair of Richmond Fed warned that inflation may get out of control as Powell was trapped in “dilemma” on the issue. Bank of France Governor Villeroy indicated that the European Central Bank will not rush into winding down exceptional bond purchases, and nothing will be like what Powell said about tapering last Friday. In China, the August manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1, and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both fell to 18-month low amid off-season, spreading COVID-19 and floods. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.23% to settled at 1597 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1434 and below same could see a test of 1422 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1459.8, a move above could see prices testing 1473.6.  

 

Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1422-1473.6.

Nickel prices steadied after prices hit a record 149,870 yuan a tonne and LME nickel advanced 3.3% to $19,640 a tonne on low inventories.

Nickel prices sustained its momentum with support from the cost front, strong demand from new energy sector, low inventory and rising stainless steel.

Activity in China’s services sector slipped into contraction in August, official data showed.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 212.85 as output curbs in top producer China stoked concerns of tight supply. Aluminium prices have been supported by production curbs in key Chinese smelting regions often aimed at easing the strain on the power grid. A meeting in southern China’s Guangxi region, an aluminium and alumina production hub, called for tougher controls on energy consumption, according to a statement on the regional government’s website, sparking fears of more output cuts. Yunnan is a major aluminium hub in China and has seen some smelters forced to cut production due to power curbs this year. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting of the country’s top aluminium smelters to address what it described as an “irrational surge” in aluminium prices. The LME cash aluminium contract was trading at a premium of $25.75 a tonne to the three-month contract, its biggest since July 2018, indicating tightening nearby supplies. One party controls 50%-80% of available aluminium stocks and short-term futures on the LME, exchange data showed. PMI China’s factory activity expanded at a slower pace in August as coronavirus-related restrictions and high raw material prices pressure manufacturers in the world’s second largest economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.05% to settled at 2111 while prices up 0.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 211.4 and below same could see a test of 209.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.1, a move above could see prices testing 215.3.         

 

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 209.9-215.3.

Aluminium prices remained supported as output curbs in top producer China stoked concerns of tight supply.

Aluminium prices have been supported by production curbs in key Chinese smelting regions often aimed at easing the strain on the power grid.

A meeting in southern China’s Guangxi region, an aluminium and alumina production hub, called for tougher controls on energy consumption

 

 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 933.3 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.9 Rupees to end at 1041.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.41% to settled at 1223 while prices down -5.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 929.6 and below same could see a test of 925.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 939.6, a move above could see prices testing 945.8.   

 

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 925.8-945.8.

In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.9 Rupees to end at 1041.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved

Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.

The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 8001 as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. In recent sessions prices trading with weakness since last week after Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%. The latest USDA release is slightly bearish, and as per the report the 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month. Foreign oilseed production is reduced 3.6 million tons to 501.4 million, reflecting lower canola production for Canada and sunflower seed for Russia. The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts, as reported in the latest USDA release include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month. India has relaxed import rules to allow shipments of 1.2 million tonnes of genetically modified (GMD) soymeal, the government said, a move that could help the poultry industry after animal feed prices tripled in a year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 46 Rupees to 9012 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.05% to settled at 16665 while prices up 8 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7898 and below same could see a test of 7794 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8128, a move above could see prices testing 8254.

 

Trading Ideas:

Soyabean trading range for the day is 7794-8254.

Soyabean gained as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.

As per the USDA report the 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports

Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  46 Rupees to 9012 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 1385.1 amid reports of Brazil harvesting a bigger crop from last year and India to allow soymeal import. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1411.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.31% to settled at 28825 while prices down -14.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1378 and below same could see a test of 1369 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1400, a move above could see prices testing 1413.

 

Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1369-1413.

Ref soyoil remained in range amid reports of Brazil harvesting a bigger crop from last year and India to allow soymeal import.

The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.

Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1411.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 1139.1 as exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August fell 15.8 percent to 1,213,126 tonnes from 1,440,096 tonnes shipped during July, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 13.1 percent to 999,668 tonnes from 1,150,452 tonnes shipped during Jul. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Indonesia's plans to raise the mandatory bio-content in its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% may face further delays, after the high price of the vegetable oil has made the programme too costly, a senior government official told. Indonesia set its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price 13% higher in September, Musdhalifah Machmud, the deputy minister for food and agriculture, told. September's CPO is set at $1,185.26 per tonne, up from $1,048.62 a month earlier. This means that the export tax for the edible oil has jumped from $93 per tonne in August to $166 in September. Export levies for CPO, however, remain the same at $175 per tonne. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -2.1 Rupees to end at 1198.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.44% to settled at 3841 while prices down -3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1131.7 and below same could see a test of 1124.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147.6, a move above could see prices testing 1156.2.   

 

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1124.4-1156.2.

Crude palm oil dropped as Malaysia's Aug palm oil exports fall 15.8 percent

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August fell 15.8 percent to 1,213,126 tonnes from 1,440,096 tonnes shipped during July

Slow palm oil output growth to lift Malaysia's 2021 average prices to 3,600 rgt/T – MPOB

In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -2.1 Rupees to end at 1198.2 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 8198 amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, analysts from the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. There were reports that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend lowering the nation's biofuel blending mandates. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8355 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.86% to settled at 21090 while prices up 77 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8108 and below same could see a test of 8019 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8290, a move above could see prices testing 8383.     

 

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8019-8383.

Rmseed prices remained supported amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals.

In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons.

USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8355 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 8022 on profit booking after prices gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7618.75 Rupees dropped -43.15 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.24% to settled at 10680 while prices down -100 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7936 and below same could see a test of 7850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8172, a move above could see prices testing 8322.   

 

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7850-8322.

Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains.

 India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough.

 In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7618.75 Rupees dropped -43.15 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.5% at 14440 on profit booking after prices gained due to the forecast of drought in Gujarat-Rajasthan by Skymet. With Gujarat and Rajasthan being the only producers of cumin in the country, the most impact of Skymet's forecast is visible on the cumin market. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However, the freight of container-vessels has increased and the shortage of containers is increasing continuously. Despite this, exporters are now exporting by bargaining at FOB price and in some cases the freight of both side containers is being settled. The export of cumin seeds from Turkey and Syria was visible in the international market in July-August every year, due to which the export of Indian cumin decreased after July-August, but due to the very bad condition of cumin crop exports cannot be dome from these two countries in the current year. On the contrary, importers from Syria and Turkey are currently buying cumin seeds from India. There is a lack of rainfall in the cumin growing centers of Rajasthan and Gujarat and due to higher prices of other commodities than cumin in Rabi season, there is a perception that the sowing of cumin is low. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.45 Rupees to end at 14741.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.8% to settled at 5007 while prices down -220 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14260 and below same could see a test of 14085 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14710, a move above could see prices testing 14985.

 

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14085-14985.

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to the forecast of drought like conditions in Gujarat-Rajasthan.

India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

Export of cumin is expected to reach a record level of 2.50 to 2.75 lakh tonnes in the current year

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.45 Rupees to end at 14741.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.86% at 25290 as crop seems to be in good condition after Gujarat received very good rainfall from last night.Cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales despite the area under coverage has gone down by 6-8%, from 133 lakh hectares last year to 125 lakh hectares in the current season. In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown. Weather may impact soyabean, cotton, sugarcane and paddy crops. High-value and sensitive crops such as soyabean, cotton, sugarcane, and paddy have been affected, he said. In Madhya Pradesh, soyabean crop could be 20 percent in some areas. Cotton sowing is progressing across India for the coming 2021-22 season. Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time. Egyptian cotton production and exports may rise in marketing year (MY) 2021-22 as the country’s area under cotton harvest is likely to increase to 85,000 hectares, a 30.77 per cent growth over previous MY’s area of 65,000 hectares. The expected increase in cotton production coupled with the rising demand across the world will boost the country’s exports. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -60 Rupees to end at 26930 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.77% to settled at 1678 while prices down -480 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24830 and below same could see a test of 24360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25760, a move above could see prices testing 26220.

 

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 24360-26220.

Cotton prices dropped as crop seems to be in good condition after Gujarat received very good rainfall from last night.

Cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales.

In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown.

In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -60 Rupees to end at 26930 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 5152 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -45 Rupees to end at 5200 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.18% to settled at 58580 while prices down -37 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5127 and below same could see a test of 5103 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5174, a move above could see prices testing 5197. 

 

Trading Ideas:
Chana trading range for the day is 5103-5197.

Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases

The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT

India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said

In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -45 Rupees to end at 5200 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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