Cotton trading range for the day is 23620-24320 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 48506 as prices will remain under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jumped after Fed officials projected interest rate hikes sooner than expected. U.S. homebuilding rebounded less than expected in May as very expensive lumber and shortages of other materials continued to constrain builders' ability to take advantage of an acute shortage of houses on the market. Concerns about rising prices have risen in the face of U.S. data showing a recent spike in consumer and producer prices. U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in May, with spending rotating back to services from goods as vaccinations allow Americans to travel and engage in other activities that had been restricted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Other data showed an acceleration in producer prices last month as supply chains struggle to meet demand that is being unleashed by the reopening of the economy. In addition to vaccinations, demand is also being fired up by trillions of dollars from the government and record-low interest rates. Demand for gold from jewellers and central banks will recover in 2021 but remain below pre-pandemic levels, while buying of bullion by exchange traded funds (ETFs) will fall sharply. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 10548 while prices up 82 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48393 and below same could see a test of 48281 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48591, a move above could see prices testing 48677.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48281-48677.
* Gold prices will remain under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jumped after Fed officials projected interest rate hikes sooner than expected.
* Concerns about rising prices have risen in the face of U.S. data showing a recent spike in consumer and producer prices.
* For the second time in less than a decade, the Fed is getting ready to launch a debate over how and when to sunset a massive asset-purchase program.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 71468 as will be under pressure as the Federal Reserve raised its forecast for consumer price growth for the current year and 2022. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 0.1 percent after the release of mixed U.S. economic data. Reports showed Americans slowed their spending in May and producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in the month. New York manufacturing activity cooled somewhat in June and confidence among homebuilders declined to a 10-month low, while a measure of industrial production grew at a stronger pace than expected in May. As inflation concerns mount, investors will be on the lookout for any indication that the U.S. central bank is considering winding down the pace of asset purchases. Growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May, likely weighed down by disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in the country's southern export powerhouse of Guangdong. Retail sales and investment growth also came in below market expectations, but analysts say underlying activity still looks quite solid, noting headline readings remain highly distorted by comparisons to the pandemic plunge early last year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.01% to settled at 10507 while prices up 220 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71247 and below same could see a test of 71026 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71725, a move above could see prices testing 71982.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71026-71982.
* Silver will be under pressure as the Federal Reserve raised its forecast for consumer price growth for the current year and 2022.
* The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 0.1 percent after the release of mixed U.S. economic data.
* Reports showed Americans slowed their spending in May and producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in the month.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 5277 on profit booking amid growing U.S. crude production and Britain's delayed COVID-19 reopening dampened expectations for fuel demand growth. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels in the week to June 11 to 466.7 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.1 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. The market reacted negatively to a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that shale oil output, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. production, was expected to rise by about 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to about 7.8 million bpd. The International Energy Agency said that it expected global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, more quickly than previously anticipated. The IEA urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, to increase output to meet demand. OPEC+ has been restraining production to support prices after the pandemic wiped out demand in 2020, maintaining strong compliance with agreed targets in May. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -42.08% to settled at 5126 while prices down -3 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5249 and below same could see a test of 5220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5327, a move above could see prices testing 5376.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5220-5376.
* Crude oil prices pared gains on profit booking amid growing U.S. crude production and Britain's delayed COVID-19 reopening dampened expectations
* U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said
* U.S. shale oil output to climb by 38,000 bpd in July -EIA
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 238 on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks. Next-day power and gas prices in Texas and California spiked to multimonth highs as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape brutal heat waves. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With warmer weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.1 bcfd this week to 89.6 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 9.7 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and an all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. But with European and Asian gas prices both trading over $10 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in June, putting them on track to top May's 6.2-bcfd record. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.73% to settled at 16013 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 234.2 and below same could see a test of 230.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241, a move above could see prices testing 243.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 230.3-243.9.
* Natural rose on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.
* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA
* U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions last week by the most since February to their highest since March
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 722.1 on short covering amid ShFE copper stocks were last at 180,967 tonnes, their lowest since March 12. Earlier in the day, prices dropped as China said it will release national reserves of some base metals over the near term, as the world's top metals consumer tries to stabilise the price of critical commodities. The notice came as Beijing struggles to cool its red-hot metals sector, which has seen prices surge this year fuelled by a post-pandemic economic recovery, ample global liquidity and pockets of speculative buying. Chinese factory gate inflation shot to the highest in over 12 years in May, cutting into firms' profit margins and highlighting global price pressures at a time when policymakers are trying to revitalise COVID-hit growth. Yangshan copper premium fell to $21 a tonne, its lowest since February 2016 and 81% lower than May 2020, indicating weak demand for imported metal into top consumer China. Growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May, likely weighed down by disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in the country's southern export powerhouse of Guangdong. Retail sales and investment growth also came in below market expectations. The Chinese economy has largely shaken off the gloom from the coronavirus slump, but officials warn its recovery remains uneven amid challenges including soft domestic demand, rising raw material prices and global supply chain disruptions. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.82% to settled at 4591 while prices up 5.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 714.2 and below same could see a test of 706.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 727.8, a move above could see prices testing 733.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 706.3-733.5.
* Copper prices recovered on short covering amid ShFE copper stocks were last at 180,967 tonnes, their lowest since March 12.
* Earlier in the day, prices dropped as China said it will release national reserves of some base metals over the near term, tries to stabilise the price.
* Yangshan copper premium fell to $21 a tonne, its lowest since February 2016 and 81% lower than May 2020, indicating weak demand
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 240.85 on short covering after prices dropped as China National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will release copper, aluminium, zinc and other stocks to ensure the supply and stabilise the prices of commodities in accordance with the deployment by the State Council. Growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May, likely weighed down by disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in the country's southern export powerhouse of Guangdong. Retail sales and investment growth also came in below market expectations. The Chinese economy has largely shaken off the gloom from the coronavirus slump. China's rapid recovery last year and a U.S. rebound this year have sharply boosted Asia's export-reliant economies -- Japan posted its strongest export growth in 41 years -- but resurgent COVID infections and lockdowns are holding back broader-based recoveries. Chinese industrial production rose 8.8% in May from a year ago, slower than the 9.8% uptick in April, National Bureau of Statistics data showed, missing a 9.0% on-year rise forecast. U.S. homebuilding rebounded less than expected in May as very expensive lumber and shortages of other materials continued to constrain builders' ability to take advantage of an acute shortage of houses on the market. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.77% to settled at 2248 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 237.9 and below same could see a test of 235 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.7, a move above could see prices testing 244.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 235-244.6.
* Zinc prices gained on short covering after prices dropped as China will release zinc stocks to ensure the supply and stabilise the prices.
* Growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May
* Chinese industrial production rose 8.8% in May from a year ago, slower than the 9.8% uptick in April
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 1289.1 as growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May, likely weighed down by disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in the country's southern export powerhouse of Guangdong. However prices recovered some of its losses as high-grade NPI plants cut output before May due to nickel ore shortages, tightening NPI supply. High production schedule of stainless steel triggered concerns over stock accumulation in July and August. In this scenario, steel mills refused to accept sharp gains in raw material prices, preventing NPI prices from rising significantly. China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes amid maintenance at top producer Jinchuan Group. Work on Jinchuan's smelter and sulphuric acid plant is set to be completed in mid-June, Jilin Jien Nickel produced 350 tonnes of cathode in May after a long absence and planned to churn out 500 tonnes this month. Overall nickel cathode output in the first five months of 2021 fell 4.4% year on year to 65,000 tonnes, said Antaike, which sees this month's production rising to 13,500 tonnes. Nickel inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to a record low last week of just 7,471 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.02% to settled at 1603 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1278.3 and below same could see a test of 1267.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1300.9, a move above could see prices testing 1312.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1267.5-1312.7.
* Nickel dropped as growth in China's factory output slowed for a third straight month in May
* However prices recovered some of its losses as high-grade NPI plants cut output before May due to nickel ore shortages, tightening NPI supply.
* China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 194.75 as China’s primary aluminium output fell slightly in May versus April, official data showed, as restrictions on power consumption in the smelting hub of Yunnan forced some production cuts. The world’s top producer of the metal churned out 3.32 million tonnes in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was down 0.8% from April’s record high of 3.346 million tonnes but up 11.3% year on year. Daily output in May works out to about 107,100 tonnes a day, versus around 111,500 tonnes in April, which had one less day. Yunnan, a province in Southwest China whose hydropower resources have attracted several smelters looking to reduce their emissions, was hit by severe drought last month, limiting its ability to generate electricity. China’s exports of aluminium have likely peaked in the wake of a series of trade protection moves in key markets around the world but the country is now shipping higher value-added products overseas. China, the world’s top producer of aluminium, saw exports of unwrought aluminium and products fall for a second straight year in 2020 to 4.86 million tonnes, as a coronavirus-driven knock to demand for Chinese metal exacerbated the impact of a flurry of anti-dumping tariffs imposed since 2017. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.33% to settled at 2207 while prices up 0.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 192.8 and below same could see a test of 190.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.1, a move above could see prices testing 197.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 190.7-197.3.
* Aluminium prices recovered as China’s primary aluminium output fell slightly in May
* China May primary aluminium output at 3.32 mln T - stats bureau
* Output down from April record as Yunnan smelters shut capacity
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.7% at 978.9 due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -28.6 Rupees to end at 1065.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.57% to settled at 27 while prices up 16.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 963.2 and below same could see a test of 947.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 997.2, a move above could see prices testing 1015.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 947.6-1015.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -28.6 Rupees to end at 1065.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.
* However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.
* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 6663 on short covering after prices dropped as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. The Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association (SFPWA), which represents soybean food processing industries in India has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free as prices of domestic soybeans have increased 50% during the past six months. K Sarat Chandra Kumar, President, Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association said, "The beans could be allowed into the country at “zero” duty under tariff rate quota since food specialty soybeans are not grown in the country." China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 100 Rupees to 7057 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.62% to settled at 37750 while prices up 65 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6566 and below same could see a test of 6470 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6729, a move above could see prices testing 6796.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6470-6796.
* Soyabean prices gained on short covering after prices dropped as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth
* SFPWA has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free
* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 100 Rupees to 7057 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 1246.7 on short covering as soyoil purchases rose by 43% to 267,781 tonnes. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1303.15 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.32% to settled at 35065 while prices up 6.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1235 and below same could see a test of 1223 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1262, a move above could see prices testing 1277.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1223-1277.
* Ref soyoil gained on short covering as soyoil purchases rose by 43% to 267,781 tonnes.
* The government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon.
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1303.15 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.94% at 1020.9 as India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May from last year's low base to the highest level in 4-months as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory. The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, under pressure from labour unions and senators, is considering ways to provide relief to domestic oil refiners from biofuel blending mandates. Indonesia reported a more than 18% drop in exports for April from the prior month, raising questions about global demand for the edible oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 15 fell 3.8 percent to 658,900 tonnes from 685,114 tonnes shipped during May 1 – 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, exported 2.64 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, down from a month earlier, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. That compares to 3.23 million tonnes exported in March, while April production of the vegetable oil "was relatively unchanged from March" at nearly 4.1 million tonnes, GAPKI said. The end-April stock of palm oil edged lower to 3.14 million tonnes, from 3.27 million at the end of March. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -15 Rupees to end at 1043 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.32% to settled at 3243 while prices up 19.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1001.3 and below same could see a test of 981.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1038.2, a move above could see prices testing 1055.5.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 981.7-1055.5.
* Crude palm oil gained as India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May from last year's low base to the highest level in 4-months
* India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory.
* The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -15 Rupees to end at 1043 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 6652 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. Support also seen tracking recovery in overseas prices lifted by spillover support from soy prices due to concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 6938.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.25% to settled at 55840 while prices up 42 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6524 and below same could see a test of 6395 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6730, a move above could see prices testing 6807.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6395-6807.
* Mustard seed gained as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* Support also seen tracking recovery in overseas prices lifted by spillover support from soy prices due to concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather.
* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 6938.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.05% at 7552 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7504.55 Rupees dropped -16.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.4% to settled at 11575 while prices down -80 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7492 and below same could see a test of 7434 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7640, a move above could see prices testing 7730.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7434-7730.
* Turmeric dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7504.55 Rupees dropped -16.1 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 13560 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 3.9 Rupees to end at 13723.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.47% to settled at 6930 while prices down -135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13485 and below same could see a test of 13415 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13670, a move above could see prices testing 13785.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13415-13785.
* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 3.9 Rupees to end at 13723.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 23970 as Cotton acreage could see 5-10 per cent rise this Kharif season, thanks to good prices farmers have got during the current marketing season (October 2020-September 2021). Assured procurement through the Cotton Corporation of India, prospects of good monsoon and groundnut cultivation turning costly are other factors that are likely to aid higher coverage of cotton this year. Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra told BusinessLine that the area under cotton will likely increase mainly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka among the States where the natural fibre is grown. Latest cotton crop estimate for the season 2020-21, the trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the crop size by 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 356 lakh bales. The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana. The CAI estimates show a decrease of one lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat, while cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 3 lakh bales based on the pressing data provided by Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 24250 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.68% to settled at 3674 while prices down -80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23790 and below same could see a test of 23620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24140, a move above could see prices testing 24320.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 23620-24320.
* Cotton prices dropped as Cotton acreage could see 5-10 per cent rise this Kharif season
* CAI that the area under cotton will likely increase among the States where the natural fibre is grown.
* The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 24250 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 5023 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -49.15 Rupees to end at 5022.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.89% to settled at 135710 while prices down -52 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4989 and below same could see a test of 4956 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5071, a move above could see prices testing 5120.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4956-5120.
* Chana dropped on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year.
* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.
* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -49.15 Rupees to end at 5022.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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