Cotton trading range for the day is 23320-24300 - Kedia Advisory
Follow us Now on Telegram ! Get daily 10 - 12 important updates on Business, Finance and Investment. Join our Telegram Channel
Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 48994 after a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations. U.S. employers boosted hiring in May and raised wages as they competed for workers, with millions of unemployed Americans at home likely because of childcare issues and generous unemployment checks. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report offered some assurance that the economic recovery from the pandemic recession was on track after worker shortages also blamed on lingering fears over COVID-19 sharply restrained employment growth in April. Indian gold dealers offered the biggest discounts in 8-1/2 months as COVID-19-related restrictions stifled consumption, while top consumer China flipped to a discount for the first time since late January. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, over official domestic prices inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies versus $10 discounts last week. China's central bank on June 1 issued a revised draft anti-money laundering law, covering accounting firms and precious metal exchanges. Ghana's gold production fell 12% in 2020 to 4.02 million ounces, the country's Chamber of Mines said, but the country retained its position as Africa's top gold producer despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 11819 while prices up 317 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48574 and below same could see a test of 48153 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49296, a move above could see prices testing 49597.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48153-49597.
* Gold rebounded after a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations.
* U.S. employers boosted hiring in May and raised wages as they competed for workers, with millions of unemployed Americans at home likely
* Indian gold dealers offered the biggest discounts in 8-1/2 months as COVID-19-related restrictions stifled consumption, while top consumer China flipped to a discount
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 71539 as the dollar weakened after the US jobs report slightly disappointed. The US economy added 559K jobs in May, below market expectations of a 650K. The precious metal has played a crucial role as an inflation-hedging asset as investors moved to price in a roaring comeback for the US economy and increased inflation. President Joe Biden said that a report showing modest U.S. job growth in May is a sign of “historic progress” for the economy. “Today’s jobs report shows historic progress for American families and the American economy,” Biden said. “America is on the move again.” New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in April as a global semiconductor shortage weighed on the production of motor vehicles and electrical equipment, appliances and components. The Commerce Department said that factory orders dropped 0.6% in April after increasing 1.4% in March. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 1.58% on Friday, after the payroll report showed the US economy created fewer jobs than expected in May, easing worries about the Federal Reserve reducing its massive support sooner than expected. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.56% to settled at 11096 while prices up 729 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70656 and below same could see a test of 69774 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72093, a move above could see prices testing 72648.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69774-72648.
* Silver prices gained as the dollar weakened after the US jobs report slightly disappointed.
* The US economy added 559K jobs in May, below market expectations of a 650K.
* President Joe Biden said that a report showing modest U.S. job growth in May is a sign of “historic progress” for the economy.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 5071 amid optimism over improving demand and on OPEC+ supply discipline. Slow progress of the Iran nuclear talks also offered some support. There have been a raft of bullish calls on the demand outlook despite the patchy roll-out of anti-coronavirus vaccinations around the globe and concerns surrounding high infections in countries like Brazil and India. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have predicted a solid demand in recovery in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, but stuck to their plan to ease supply controls gradually. Russia's compliance with the OPEC+ oil output deal was at close to 100% last month, much higher than it was in April, Russian Deputy Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. Russian compliance in April was at 91%, according to OPEC. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said it was premature to talk about output decisions due to be made by the so-called OPEC+ group of oil producers in August. Novak said the group would look at seasonal demand growth and also consider the potential return of Iranian oil supplies to the market. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.75% to settled at 10723 while prices up 60 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5026 and below same could see a test of 4981 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5098, a move above could see prices testing 5125.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4981-5125.
* Crude oil rose amid optimism over improving demand and on OPEC+ supply discipline.
* Slow progress of the Iran nuclear talks also offered some support.
* Russia's compliance with OPEC+ deal was close to 100% in May – Novak
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.89% at 226.6 after midday forecasts called for hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders said they expect that extra heat will prompt power generators to burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. One reason production has slid in recent months is that drillers have not added enough rigs to keep up with natural declines in well output. The number of rigs drilling for gas in the United States this week fell by one to 97. That put the gas rig count down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since May 2020 as drillers focus more on improving cash flow, paying down debt and returning money to shareholders rather than increasing output. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and the all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.96% to settled at 15872 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 222 and below same could see a test of 217.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 229.3, a move above could see prices testing 232.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 217.4-232.
* Natural gas rose after midday forecasts called for hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Extra heat will prompt power generators to burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming.
# One reason production has slid in recent months is that drillers have not added enough rigs to keep up with natural declines in well output.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 743 fuelled by optimism over global economic recovery and new demand from an expected green revolution including the shift the electric vehicles. Investors scooped up material at lower prices after heavy losses the previous day on fears that strong U.S. economic data could spur tighter monetary policy. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas decreased on smaller arrivals. Data showed that the stocks fell 3,300 mt from the prior week to 412,200 mt as of Friday June 4. The quantity of bills of lading arriving at ports during the week was relatively small, and the opportunity of customs declaration and import had not been given in terms of import poss. The quantity of goods going out of bonded warehouse and entering customs was limited, while the quantity of refined copper exported from bonded warehouse to overseas increased, which led to the decline of stocks. Global copper smelting extended its rebound in May, touching fresh highs for the year as operations continued to take advantage of strong prices. Activity in China was strong at first, but weakened through the month as smelters undertook seasonal maintenance. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.7% to settled at 4529 while prices up 8.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 734.1 and below same could see a test of 725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 748.6, a move above could see prices testing 754.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 725-754.
* Copper prices rebounded fuelled by optimism over global economic recovery and new demand from an expected green revolution
* Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas decreased on smaller arrivals.
* Global copper smelting extended its rebound in May, touching fresh highs for the year as operations continued to take advantage of strong prices.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 236.65 as refined zinc output decreased by 10,400 mt in May, and is expected to increase by 2,400 mt in June. The data of ADP employment and ISM service industry in the US showed that the economy was recovering rapidly, which continued to arouse the worry of the Federal Reserve's code reduction and easing. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,300 mt in the week ended June 4 to 152,200 mt. The stocks fell 2,200 mt from Monday May 31. Stocks in Shanghai decreased as arrivals of import zinc and domestic zinc were limited, and the downstream still had rigid demand. In south China's Guangdong, downstream demand weakened, which led to the decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell as the rise in steel prices led to the recovery of some downstream orders and inventories of zinc ingots in enterprises were low, bringing about a certain purchasing demand. New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in April as a global semiconductor shortage weighed on the production of motor vehicles and electrical equipment, appliances and components. The Commerce Department said that factory orders dropped 0.6% in April after increasing 1.4% in March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.45% to settled at 2103 while prices up 0.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 235.4 and below same could see a test of 234.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238.1, a move above could see prices testing 239.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 234.1-239.5.
* Zinc prices gained as refined zinc output decreased by 10,400 mt in May, and is expected to increase by 2,400 mt in June.
* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,300 mt
* The data of ADP employment and ISM service industry in the US showed that the economy was recovering rapidly
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 1313.8 as support continues as US economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nornickel announces that on June 1 the company began to gradually restart ore mining at the Taimyrsky underground mine and plans to advance mine’s operations to full capacity in the near future. Mined production last year was 771,000 tonnes, twice as much as the world's second largest producer the Philippines and accounting for almost a third of global output, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas remained unchanged from a week ago and stood at 9,700 mt as of June 4, showed data. Nickel plate import window continued to stay in a loss state this week, and there was little trading in the bonded area. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 252,000 wmt from May 28 to 5.95 million wmt as of June 4, showed data. In Ni content, the stocks stood at 46,800 mt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 72,000 wmt during the same period to 4.27 million wmt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.18% to settled at 1999 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1303.9 and below same could see a test of 1294.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1325.3, a move above could see prices testing 1336.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1294.1-1336.9.
* Nickel prices gained as support continues as US economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Nornickel has resumed ore mining at Taimyrsky Mine
* Mined production last year was 771,000 tonnes, twice as much as the world's second largest producer the Philippines.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 192.85 as support seen after Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China fell. Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, decreased 8,000 mt from last Thursday to 954,000 mt as of June 3. Stocks in Nanhai rose slightly by 7,000 mt. New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in April as a global semiconductor shortage weighed on the production of motor vehicles and electrical equipment, appliances and components. The Commerce Department said that factory orders dropped 0.6% in April after increasing 1.4% in March. The US ISM service industry index hit a record high in May. US initial jobless claims dropped below 400,000, and US private payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs in May, the biggest increase since June 2020. Output of primary aluminium in China will increase until 2024, after which secondary, or recycled metal will start to claim a bigger share of plateauing consumption, state-backed research house Antaike said. China is by far the world's biggest aluminium maker, churning out a record 37.08 million tonnes in 2020. However, its government wants to cap annual smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes and producers, under pressure to reduce emissions, are looking to recycle more scrap metal instead. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.51% to settled at 1973 while prices up 3.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 190.1 and below same could see a test of 187.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.3, a move above could see prices testing 195.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 187.4-195.8.
* Aluminium prices gained as support seen after Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China fell.
* The US ISM service industry index hit a record high in May and US initial jobless claims dropped below 400,000
* China's primary aluminium output seen peaking in 2024
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 921.6 as support seen due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 1038.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.29% to settled at 30 while prices up 6.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 913.9 and below same could see a test of 906.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 928.4, a move above could see prices testing 935.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 906.2-935.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 1038.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained as support seen due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.
* As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh).
* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.86% at 6742 as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. It could also boost Indian exports of animal feed ingredient soymeal to places such as Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam and Iran, industry officials said. Indian farmers planted soybean on 11.83 million hectares in 2020 and produced 10.4 million tonnes, according to SOPA. According to the third advance estimate, the total production of oilseeds in the country during 2020-21 is estimated to be a record 36.57 million tonnes which is 3.35 million tonnes more than the production of 33.22 million tonnes during 2019-20. In addition, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is 6.02 million tonnes more than the average oilseeds production of five years. The Russian government has reduced the country's export tax on soybeans to 20% from 30% starting from July 1, TASS news agency reported, citing the government. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -133 Rupees to 7314 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.97% to settled at 28140 while prices down -128 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6692 and below same could see a test of 6641 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6822, a move above could see prices testing 6901.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6641-6901.
* Soyabean prices dropped as India's soybean planting could rise by over 10% on record prices
* Indian farmers planted soybean on 11.83 million hectares in 2020 and produced 10.4 million tonnes, according to SOPA.
* The total production of oilseeds in the country during 2020-21 is estimated to be a record 36.57 million tonnes which is 3.35 million tonnes
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -133 Rupees to 7314 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 1382.4 as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1416.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.12% to settled at 14995 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1370 and below same could see a test of 1357 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1390, a move above could see prices testing 1397.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1357-1397.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped on concerns about tight global supplies of edible oils.
* However downside seen limited supported on concerns about tight global supplies of edible oils.
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1416.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 1135 due to global edible oil supply woes after prices seen pressure as surveys pegged Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak. Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of May likely jumped 6.3% on-month to their highest in eight months, as production rose amid sluggish exports. Inventories at the world's second-largest producer are seen at 1.64 million tonnes, their highest since last September. Production is pegged to rise 3.4% from April to 1.58 million tonnes, its highest in seven months, as plantations enter the seasonal higher production months. Exports in May are expected to climb 0.9% month-on-month to 1.35 million tonnes, with cargo surveyor data showing slightly smaller shipments to the world's biggest palm oil buyer, India. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices last month hit record highs, which may support palm oil prices. The market will be anticipating lower domestic consumption and higher supply in June. A labour shortage in Malaysia's plantations that has curbed output throughout the coronavirus pandemic is expected to prolong as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases forced the nation into a two-week lockdown. The palm oil supply chain is allowed to operate during the lockdown, but local consumption will likely decline due to the closure of hotels, restaurants and catering services. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1156 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.44% to settled at 5409 while prices up 7.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1122.8 and below same could see a test of 1110.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1143, a move above could see prices testing 1151.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1110.6-1151.
* Crude palm oil gained due to global edible oil supply woes after prices seen pressure as surveys pegged Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak.
* May stocks seen 6.3% higher at 1.64 mln T
* Output seen up 3.4% at 1.58 mln T
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1156 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.97% at 7008 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. Stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.62% to settled at 49970 while prices down -141 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6929 and below same could see a test of 6850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7110, a move above could see prices testing 7212.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6850-7212.
* Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 7926 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7578.4 Rupees gained 17.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.51% to settled at 5860 while prices down -24 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7882 and below same could see a test of 7836 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8002, a move above could see prices testing 8076.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7836-8076.
* Turmeric dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7578.4 Rupees gained 17.05 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 13875 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 7.15 Rupees to end at 13850 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.49% to settled at 2754 while prices down -25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13820 and below same could see a test of 13765 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13910, a move above could see prices testing 13945.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13765-13945.
* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 7.15 Rupees to end at 13850 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 23930 amid firmness in overseas prices after a weekly federal report showed higher export sales of the natural fiber. Cotton sowing area grows despite of delays. Despite sowing of cotton stretching beyond the ideal sowing time in Punjab, it is close to reaching the target for 2021-22. The state agriculture department had the target of sowing cotton on 3.25 lakh hectares the crop had been sown over 3.01 lakh hectares. New figures show global cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as the stocks-to-use ratio declines. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly. Cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 25.3m tonnes as the global economy continues to recover. Decreases in Brazil, India and the US have caused a reduction in the 2020/21 global production estimate but cotton production — along with consumption and trade — are all expected to increase in 2021/22: Production is expected to increase by 5% to 25.5m tonnes, with increases in planted areas in the US and West Africa. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -60 Rupees to end at 23770 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.61% to settled at 7314 while prices up 240 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23620 and below same could see a test of 23320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24110, a move above could see prices testing 24300.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 23320-24300.
* Cotton prices gained amid firmness in overseas prices after a weekly federal report showed higher export sales of the natural fiber.
* Cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21
* According to the latest update from the ICAC, China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -60 Rupees to end at 23770 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 5238 on profit booking after prices seen supported earlier as there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -39.75 Rupees to end at 5187.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.5% to settled at 89920 while prices down -33 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5211 and below same could see a test of 5183 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5281, a move above could see prices testing 5323.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5183-5323.
* Chana dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported earlier as shortage of pulses likely as production expected to decline
* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.
* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -39.75 Rupees to end at 5187.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer
