IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 47772 as an upbeat U.S. jobs report hinting at steady economic recovery hurt the metal's appeal. The downside in gold prices is likely to be short lived amid central banks buying and increasing demand for physical gold from China and India. Switzerland in March recorded its biggest monthly gold exports in ten months as shipments to India jumped. Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, suggesting layoffs were subsiding and strengthening expectations for another month of blockbuster job growth in April as a re-opening economy unleashes pent-up demand. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 547,000 for the week ended April 17 compared to 586,000 in the prior week. It was the second straight week that claims were below the 700,000 level since March 2020 when mandatory shutdowns of nonessential businesses like restaurants and bars were enforced to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections. Claims have remained high because of fraud, especially in California and Ohio. The enhancement of the unemployment benefits programs, including a weekly $300 subsidy, could also be encouraging some people to attempt to file a claim for assistance, though not every application is approved. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.07% to settled at 10900 while prices down -456 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47534 and below same could see a test of 47297 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48134, a move above could see prices testing 48497.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 47297-48497.

* Gold fell as an upbeat U.S. jobs report hinting at steady economic recovery hurt the metal's appeal.

* The downside in gold prices is likely to be short lived amid central banks buying and increasing demand for physical gold from China and India.

* Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 547,000 for the week ended April 17 compared to 586,000 in the prior week.

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.59% at 69218 as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week dropped to a fresh one-year low. Global silver demand will rise this year to its highest since 2015 as jewellery and industrial offtake rebounds after the coronavirus pandemic, helping to lift prices, the Silver Institute said in a report. Silver is used in the manufacturing of goods from solar panels to consumer electronics, and is also bought by investors who traditionally see it as a safe store of wealth. All demand segments except for exchange traded funds (ETFs), which store silver for investors, will use more this year, and even ETFs will buy far more than was typical before the pandemic, the report said. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and made no changes to its bond-buying efforts. The central bank said the Governing Council decided to "reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance." The central bank said it would continue to buy bonds under its 1.85 trillion euro pandemic emergency purchase program until at least the end of March 2022, while net purchases under its asset purchase program would continue at a monthly pace of 20 billion euros. The bank added that PEPP purchases, as decided at the ECB's previous meeting, will continue at a significantly faster pace over the current quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.64% to settled at 8928 while prices down -1120 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68783 and below same could see a test of 68347 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70027, a move above could see prices testing 70835.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 68347-70835.

* Silver prices dropped as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week dropped to a fresh one-year low.

* Silver demand surging to its highest since 2015 – Silver Institute

* The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and made no changes to its bond-buying efforts.

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 4625 as a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan raised concerns that a recovery in global economy and fuel demand may slow. OPEC+ is heading for a largely technical meeting next week where major changes to policy are unlikely, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and OPEC+ sources said. Alexander Novak said the group may confirm or tweak output plans following its decision to ease production curbs. U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly edged higher in the week ended on April 16, the Energy Information Administration said, confirming American Petroleum Institute data from the day before. Crude inventories rose by 594,000 barrels in the week to April 16 to 493 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 3 million-barrel drop. East Coast inventories, however, fell to record low at 7.9 million barrels Refinery utilization rates were unchanged at 85% of overall capacity, but Gulf Coast refiners boosted capacity to their highest levels since March 2020, as demand for fuel improves. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 86,000 barrels in the week to 235 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 464,000 million-barrel rise. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.69% to settled at 4543 while prices down -13 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4572 and below same could see a test of 4520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4665, a move above could see prices testing 4706. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4520-4706.

* Crude oil prices dropped as a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan raised concerns that demand may slow.

* Crude inventories rose by 594,000 barrels in the week to April 16 to 493 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 3 million-barrel drop.

* OPEC+ heads for largely technical meeting next week

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.97% at 206.9 following the release of a government report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build last week. However upside seen limited on forecasts for milder weather in late April and early May than earlier expected. In addition to the storage report, traders noted prices were up on record exports, recent declines in production and forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand this week that could cause utilities to take the unusual step of pulling gas from storage. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 16. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 91.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 98.3 bcfd this week to 89.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.5 bcfd so far in April, which would top the monthly record of 10.8 bcfd in March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.57% to settled at 6510 while prices up 4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 201.3 and below same could see a test of 195.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.7, a move above could see prices testing 214.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.6-214.4.

*  Natural gas gained following the release of a government report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build last week.

*  However upside seen limited on forecasts for milder weather in late April and early May than earlier expected.

*  The U.S. EIA said utilities added 38 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended April 16.

Copper     

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 724.3 as pressure seen after Yangshan copper premium fell to $48 a tonne, its lowest since Nov. 18, while ShFE copper inventories were last at 202,464 tonnes, an 11-month high. Chilean miner Antofagasta said copper production in the first quarter of 2021 was down 5.7% at 183,000 tonnes from the same year-ago period, in light of a surge of COVID-19 infections in the country. "In March, Chile entered a second wave of COVID-19 infections as the number of cases in Chile accelerated, reaching record daily cases since the outbreak of the pandemic," it said in its quarterly production results. Supplies of copper scrap will jump this year due to decade high prices, but are unlikely to come fast enough to meet robust demand, leaving shortages that are expected to trigger stock draws and further price gains. Copper prices around $9,400 a tonne are close to $9,617 hit in February, the highest since August 2011 and more than double the levels seen in March last year, when manufacturing activity crashed due to COVID lockdowns. China's refined copper output rose 18.2% year-on-year in March but the monthly total of 870,000 tonnes was the lowest since July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.76% to settled at 1474 while prices down -4.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 721.9 and below same could see a test of 719.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 727.1, a move above could see prices testing 729.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 719.5-729.9.

* Copper prices dropped as pressure seen after Yangshan copper premium fell to $48 a tonne, its lowest since Nov. 18

* ShFE copper inventories were last at 202,464 tonnes, an 11-month high.

*  Antofagasta copper output down 5.7% in Q1 as COVID infections surge

Zinc​​​​​​​      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 228.75 as treatment charges for zinc concentrate hovered at lows as tight concentrate supply has not yet been fully eased, supported prices. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 65,400 tonnes in February and by a revised 18,300 tonnes in January, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 11,700 tonnes in January. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. Over January and February 2020, the market was oversupplied by 220,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. Pressure also seen amid increase in supply exceeded expectations as data showed that China imported 360,000 mt of zinc concentrate and 46,000 mt of refined zinc. The euro zone current account surplus narrowed in February to 25.9 billion euros ($31.2 billion) from 34.7 billion in January as net exports declined, European Central Bank figures showed. Resumption across domestic zinc mines and the arrival of imported zinc concentrate will ease domestic tight supply of zinc concentrate. Zinc social inventories extended declines last Friday. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 8,100 mt in the week ended April 16 to 220,700 mt. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.67% to settled at 1077 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 226.5 and below same could see a test of 224.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 230.4, a move above could see prices testing 232.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 224.2-232.

*  Zinc prices gained as treatment charges for zinc concentrate hovered at lows as tight concentrate supply has not yet been fully eased, supported prices.

* The global zinc market was oversupplied by 65,400 tonnes in February and by a revised 18,300 tonnes in January

* China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% and five-year LPR at 4.65%.

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.84% at 1202.7 as the global nickel market surplus expanded to 6,200 tonnes in February from a downwardly revised surplus of 3,500 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first two months of the year, the global market saw a surplus of 9,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 29,300 tonnes in the same period of 2020, Lisbon-based INSG added. PT Vale Indonesia's nickel in matte production in the first quarter of this year stood at 15,198 tonnes, the company's CEO said. This is down 13.7% from the same period a year ago and 7.6% from the previous three months, according to a statement by CEO Nico Kanter. The lower output was due to "maintenance activities... as the company plans to rebuild one of the electric furnaces," Nico said. Russian metals producer Nornickel said it had signed a long-term agreement to supply nickel and cobalt to chemicals company Johnson Matthey to produce materials used to make electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Nornickel, one of the world's largest producers of nickel, said last week it would boost output of nickel products at its Harjavalta refinery in Finland, betting on an expanding market for battery materials for EVs in Europe. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.97% to settled at 1330 while prices down -22.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1193.2 and below same could see a test of 1183.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1216.2, a move above could see prices testing 1229.6.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1183.6-1229.6.

* Nickel prices dropped as Global nickel surplus widens in February to 6,200 tonnes.

* PT Vale Indonesia's nickel in matte production in the first quarter of this year stood at 15,198 tonnes

* Russian metals producer Nornickel said it had signed a long-term agreement to supply nickel and cobalt to chemicals company Johnson Matthey

Aluminium​​​​​​​      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 190.3 triggered by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan encouraged a retreat to the safe-haven appeal of the greenback. China’s domestic aluminium supply was still affected by the carbon neutrality policy, while consumption and export of aluminium products in Q1 were positive. Aluminium smelters in Xinjiang would be subject to carbon-neutrality production reductions similar to those in the Inner Mongolia and the fact that social inventories fell sharply. China's aluminium imports in March rose 40.8% from the previous month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed. March imports of unwrought aluminium and products were 206,556 tonnes, up from February’s nine-month low of 146,671 tonnes and up 70.9% year-on-year. China, the world's top aluminium producer, brought in record volumes of the metal last year as strong demand took Shanghai prices higher than London prices, opening an arbitrage window for cheaper overseas metal. China's aluminium output rose in March from a year earlier to a monthly record, official data showed, despite curbs on energy use in the smelting hub of Inner Mongolia. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's top aluminium producer, was up 8.5% year-on-year at 3.28 million tonnes last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -38.65% to settled at 997 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 189.8 and below same could see a test of 189.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 191.2, a move above could see prices testing 191.9.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 189.1-191.9.

*  Aluminium prices dropped triggered by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan encouraged a retreat to the safe-haven appeal of the greenback.

* China’s domestic aluminium supply was still affected by the carbon neutrality policy, while consumption and export of aluminium products in Q1 were positive.

* China's aluminium output rose in March from a year earlier to a monthly record, official data showed

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.62% at 961.1 on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -13.8 Rupees to end at 1052 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.17% to settled at 45 while prices up 5.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 954.2 and below same could see a test of 947.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 966.4, a move above could see prices testing 971.8.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 947.4-971.8.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -13.8 Rupees to end at 1052 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand 

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.47% at 7638 continuing its rally due to better export performance of DOC. Support also seen as planters are not holding back from purchasing soybeans even at high prices. Support also seen amid concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China loaded up on grain and oilseeds this season. China's March soybean imports from Brazil plunged as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter, but its imports of the oilseed from the United States more than quadrupled. The world's biggest buyer of soybeans imported 315,334 tonnes from Brazil in March, down 85% from 2.1 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Custom showed. From the United States, China imported 7.18 million tonnes of soybeans in March, up 320% from 1.71 million tonnes in the previous year. China had stepped up purchases of soybeans and other U.S. farm produce after the two sides signed an initial trade deal in January last year. But buyers of the oilseed have turned to the United States more than usual in 2021, as rains in Brazil slowed the harvest there and delayed exports. The US Department of Agriculture said that farmers plan to sow 87.600 million acres with soybeans this year, the most since 2018, but missing market expectations of 89.996 million. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 136 Rupees to 7812 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.06% to settled at 92040 while prices up 111 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7542 and below same could see a test of 7445 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7777, a move above could see prices testing 7915.

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7445-7915.

* Soyabean prices gains continuing its rally due to better export performance of DOC.

* Support also seen as planters are not holding back from purchasing soybeans even at high prices.

* Support also seen amid concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China loaded up on grain and oilseeds this season.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  136 Rupees to 7812 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 1434.3 as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The food ministry has sent a proposal to the Empowered Group of Ministers to review edible oil prices, and a meeting may be called soon. The government is likely to review edible oil prices soon. Sources said a decision on import duty reduction may be taken in that meeting. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1458.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.59% to settled at 35840 while prices up 10.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1423 and below same could see a test of 1410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1445, a move above could see prices testing 1454.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1410-1454.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021.

* Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production.

* Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the USDA's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1458.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 1227.4 lifted by estimates of tight production and tracking higher rival soyoil. Global commodity prices are expected to stay firm around current levels in 2021 after recovering in the first quarter buoyed by strong economic growth, the World Bank said. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association in Malaysia estimated production during April 1-20 will be unchanged from the previous month, defeating hopes of a recovery in supply. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during April 1-20 rose between 10% and 12.7% from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyor data, but the rise in shipments was lower than market expectations. India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports. However upside seen limited as higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market. The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 20 Rupees to end at 1235.3 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.41% to settled at 2656 while prices up 13 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1216.2 and below same could see a test of 1205.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1234.2, a move above could see prices testing 1241.1.       

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1205.1-1241.1.

* Crude palm oil prices ended with gains lifted by estimates of tight production and tracking higher rival soyoil.

* The SPPOMA in Malaysia estimated production during April 1-20 will be unchanged from the previous month, defeating hopes of a recovery in supply.

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during April 1-20 rose between 10% and 12.7% from a month earlier

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 1235.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed     

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 3.27% at 7328 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 412 Rupees to end at 7531 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.17% to settled at 73350 while prices up 232 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7202 and below same could see a test of 7077 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7445, a move above could see prices testing 7563.   

Trading Ideas:            

*  Rmseed trading range for the day is 7077-7563.

*  Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.

*  A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February.

*  The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 412 Rupees to end at 7531 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 8248 as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7695 Rupees gained 39.1 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.93% to settled at 9655 while prices up 20 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8124 and below same could see a test of 8000 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8408, a move above could see prices testing 8568.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8000-8568.

* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5%

* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.

* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7695 Rupees gained 39.1 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 14205 on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.92% to settled at 6294 while prices up 115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14090 and below same could see a test of 13970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14355, a move above could see prices testing 14500.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13970-14500.

* Jeera prices gained on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops

* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year

* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 21210 as CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October, mainly due to higher international prices. CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India. The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days. Since the beginning of April, production of fabric has gone down in the state from around 5.50 crore metres to almost 4 crore metres per day. Demand from textile traders has gone down drastically. If the situation doesn’t improve in next fortnight period, production of fabric would further plummet to as low as 50%. If the lockdown increases in Bangladesh, Indian cotton exports will be affected. CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21, that is up to September 30, at 496 lakh bales. Around 35 to 37 lakhs out of the export of 60 to 70 lakh bales of cotton is being exported to Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton gained by 70 Rupees to end at 21910 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -25.92% to settled at 3041 while prices up 120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21160 and below same could see a test of 21100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21280, a move above could see prices testing 21340.

Trading Ideas:            

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 21100-21340.

* Cotton gains as CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October.

* CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India.

* The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 70 Rupees to end at 21910 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 5590 on profit booking as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand during the upcoming festival season. In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets. Government agency Nafed has purchased 1.52 lakh tonnes of gram in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. According to the second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture, a record 116 million tonnes of gram production is expected in the 2020-21 season. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 9.7 Rupees to end at 5664.7 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.25% to settled at 126270 while prices down -3 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5528 and below same could see a test of 5465 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5688, a move above could see prices testing 5785.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5465-5785.

* Chana dropped on profit booking as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases 

* The concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states.

* In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 9.7 Rupees to end at 5664.7 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer