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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 44905 as investors chose the safety of the U.S. dollar and government bonds, spooked by Turkey's abrupt decision to replace its central bank head with a critic of high interest rates. The U.S. dollar firmed after Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan replaced a hawkish central bank chief with an opponent of tight monetary policy, which sent the lira close to its all-time low. The U.S. economy may be “on the brink of completing the recovery” from the recession triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said, although risks remain for some workers. “Vaccines are rolling out, and case rates and hospitalizations are falling. Excess savings and fiscal stimulus should help fund pent-up demand from consumers freed by vaccines and warmer weather,” Barkin said in remarks. “With this support, the economy has come most of the way back,” he said, with the recently enacted $1.9 trillion coronavirus federal relief program fueling a jump in household incomes and savings that helps offset the still-deep loss of jobs. Gold imports, fell 3.3% to $26.11 billion during April-February 2020-21, according to the commerce ministry data. Imports of the yellow metal stood at $27 billion in April-February 2019-20. Gems and jewellery exports declined 33.86% to $22.40 billion in April-February 2020-21. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.25% to settled at 7736 while prices down -116 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44676 and below same could see a test of 44448 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45086, a move above could see prices testing 45268.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44448-45268.

* Gold prices fell as investors chose the safety of the U.S. dollar and government bonds, spooked by Turkey's abrupt decision to replace its central bank head

* Richmond Fed's Barkin: U.S. may be 'on the brink' of complete recovery

* India' Gold imports slip 3.3% to $26.11 billion in Apr-Feb

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.77% at 66331 as the dollar pushed higher as investors awaited cues from a series of upcoming Treasury auctions. In a statement, the central bank said it "will continue to use the monetary policy tools effectively in line with its main objective of achieving a permanent fall in inflation".Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said that in coming months he won’t be paying much attention to what he expects to be pretty large price spikes compared to a year earlier. For the next six months, Barkin said at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting, he’ll “look through” such jumps as he assesses the underlying trajectory of inflation, but will instead look at month-to-month changes. The European Central Bank increase bond purchases by nearly half last week, ramping up its stimulus efforts to keep a lid on borrowing costs and convince sceptical investors it would do what it took to restrain bond yields. The ECB was finally putting its money where its mouth is after announcing on March 11 that it would step up its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme over the coming quarter to ensure credit stayed cheap in the virus-stricken euro zone. The euro zone’s central bank bought 28 billion euros worth of bonds last week across its stimulus programmes, a 48% increase over the previous week and the biggest weekly amount since Dec. 4. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.05% to settled at 11290 while prices down -1196 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65694 and below same could see a test of 65057 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66984, a move above could see prices testing 67637.

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65057-67637.

* Silver prices drifted lower as the dollar pushed higher as investors awaited cues from a series of upcoming Treasury auctions.

* Fed’s Barkin said that in coming months he won’t be paying much attention to what he expects to be pretty large price spikes compared to a year earlier.

* ECB increase bond purchases by nearly half last week, ramping up its stimulus efforts to keep a lid on borrowing costs

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 4477 as the positive news on the vaccine front with AstraZeneca's vaccine proving to be 79% effective supported oil prices, reports saying several countries in Europe are looking to extend lockdown measures to curb the spread of the third wave of infections weighed on the commodity. Germany plans to extend a lockdown to contain COVID-19 infections into a fifth month, , after new cases exceeded levels authorities say will cause hospitals to be overstretched. The OPECand its allies have put in place unprecedented production cuts in a pact to balance global markets after demand plunged during the COVID-19 pandemic. Goldman Sachs sees the oil price pullback as a buying opportunity and forecasts Brent crude reaching $80 per barrel this summer even as the recent rally in prices "takes a big breather." China's crude oil imports from Oman and the United Arab Emirates rose 30% and 61%, respectively, in the first two months of 2021 from the same year-ago period, data from Chinese customs showed, as some Iranian barrels were believed to have slipped in. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 16, CFTC said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 3,232 contracts to 411,107 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.78% to settled at 3049 while prices up 18 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4410 and below same could see a test of 4343 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4530, a move above could see prices testing 4583.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4343-4583.

* Crude oil recovered as the positive news on the vaccine front with AstraZeneca's vaccine proving to be 79% effective supported oil prices

* Goldman sees oil price pullback as buying opportunity

* Speculators raise U.S. crude oil net longs-CFTC

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 186 on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts demand will rise next week after low gas prices in past weeks prompted power generators to burn more gas instead of coal. That decline came despite forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand this week than previously expected. Over the past five years, utilities have pulled on average 51 bcf and 24 bcf of gas from storage during the weeks ended March 19 and March 26, respectively. With storage expected to end the heating season near normal levels at the end of March, speculators cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for a fourth time in a row to their lowest level since July 2020. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd next week as low gas prices prompt power generators to burn more gas and less coal. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.6 bcfd so far in March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.38% to settled at 7525 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 181.5 and below same could see a test of 176.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.7, a move above could see prices testing 191.3. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 176.9-191.3.

* Natural gas rose on record LNG exports and forecasts demand will rise next week after low gas prices in past weeks. 

* That decline came despite forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand this week than previously expected. 

* Speculators cut their net long positions for a fourth time in a row to their lowest level since July 2020.

Copper     

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 677.65 amid signs of support from China's central bank governor, who said the country's monetary policy needs to focus on supporting economic growth in a targeted way while also reducing financial risks. However upside seen limited due to high level of inventories in global exchange warehouses and falling premiums in top consumer China raised demand concerns. China’s economy is continuing a steady recovery this year, vice premier said. Han made the remarks to the China Development Forum, a high-level business gathering hosted by the Development Research Centre of the State Council. Han also said China, the world’s No.2 economy, will strengthen macro policy coordination with other countries. China’s economy is widely expected to grow more than 8% in 2021, led by an expected double-digit expansion in the first quarter, but analysts say the pace is driven by a low base for comparison and the recovery remains uneven. The economy expanded 2.3% last year, the only major economy to report growth, although the growth was its weakest in 44 years. Inventories of copper in warehouses tracked by ShFE hit their highest since September of 187,372 tonnes by the end of last week, the latest data showed. The Yangshan copper premium dipped to $65.50 a tonne, its lowest since Jan. 13, indicating weakening demand for imported copper into top consumer China. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.16% to settled at 2006 while prices up 2.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671.8 and below same could see a test of 665.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 681, a move above could see prices testing 684.1.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 665.7-684.1.

* Copper prices gained amid signs of support from China's central bank governor, said the country's monetary policy needs to focus on supporting economic growth. 

* China's central bank governor, said the country's monetary policy needs to focus on supporting economic growth

* Inventories of copper in warehouses tracked by ShFE hit their highest since September of 187,372 tonnes by the end of last week

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 221.45 as support seen amid the demand for restocking at low prices in the downstream of the consumption side was still high, the social inventories reduced. Under the background of mine shortage, affected by the "double control of energy consumption" in Inner Mongolia, preliminary statistics showed that the smelter reduced production by about 6,000 mt in March, and the future policy may affect the whole second quarter. The uncertainty of China-US relations still existed with the fact that the end-user consumption did not fully recover, and the high prices of zinc ingot and steel inhibited the order increment of downstream galvanised enterprises. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,800 mt in the week ended March 19 to 259,500 mt. The stocks fell 5,900 mt from Monday March 15. Stocks in Shanghai increased slightly due to continuous arrivals at smelters and the inflow of import zinc. In south China's Guangdong, with the decrease of zinc prices, the downstream procurement volume gradually enlarged, which led to the decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell slightly as the goods were picked up one after another after the downstream purchase. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.04% to settled at 1644 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 220.2 and below same could see a test of 219 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.2, a move above could see prices testing 223.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 219-223.

* Zinc prices gained amid the demand for restocking at low prices in the downstream of the consumption side was still high, the social inventories reduced.

*  The smelter reduced production by about 6,000 mt in March, and the future policy may affect the whole second quarter.

* Stocks across the three major trading hubs (Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong) fell 12,300 mt, after a 5,800 mt increase last week.

Nickel       

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 1179.6 as support seen after Glencore says Australian nickel plant running at reduced production after outage. Repair work is underway at Glencore PLC's Murrin Murrin nickel and cobalt plant in Western Australia following a component failure at an acid plant that left the facility running at reduced capacity, the miner said. The expiration of the exemption period for bank capital requirements due to the pandemic allowed by the Federal Reserve caused the yield of US bonds to break away from the daily low, the US dollar index fell. China's monetary policy needs to focus on supporting economic growth in a targeted way while also reducing financial risks, the central bank head said. "Monetary policy needs to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and preventing risks," People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang said in a speech made at a closed-door session at the China Development Forum. "China's macro leverage ratio is basically stable. We should provide positive incentives for economic entities and restrain the breeding and accumulation of financial risks." Yi said China's monetary policy should focus on targeted support for key areas and weak links in the economy. Policymakers have pledged to support job-creating small firms that have been hit harder by the coronavirus pandemic. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.77% to settled at 1544 while prices up 11 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1168.7 and below same could see a test of 1157.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1187.8, a move above could see prices testing 1195.9.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1157.7-1195.9.

* Nickel prices gained as support seen after Glencore says Australian nickel plant running at reduced production after outage

* China's monetary policy needs to focus on supporting economic growth in a targeted way while also reducing financial risks.

* Whether the stimulus of macro news coult drive nickel futures to break its position will be monitored in the near term.

Aluminium     

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 177.15 as pressure seen as LME aluminium inventories surged to 1.97 million tonnes, their highest since March 2017, while stockpiles of the metals in warehouses tracked by ShFE climbed to a level unseen since April 2020 of 375,571 tonnes. China’s economy is continuing a steady recovery this year, vice premier said. Han made the remarks to the China Development Forum, a high-level business gathering hosted by the Development Research Centre of the State Council. Han also said China, the world’s No.2 economy, will strengthen macro policy coordination with other countries. China’s economy is widely expected to grow more than 8% in 2021, led by an expected double-digit expansion in the first quarter, but analysts say the pace is driven by a low base for comparison and the recovery remains uneven. The economy expanded 2.3% last year, the only major economy to report growth, although the growth was its weakest in 44 years. China Hongqiao Group, the world's biggest private-sector producer of aluminium, will this year publish targets for lower carbon emissions and an action plan on how to reach them, its chairman Zhang Bo said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.6% to settled at 987 while prices down -0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 176.1 and below same could see a test of 174.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.4, a move above could see prices testing 179.5.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 174.9-179.5.

*  Aluminium prices dropped as pressure seen as LME aluminium inventories surged to 1.97 million tonnes, their highest since March 2017

* Stockpiles of the metals in warehouses tracked by ShFE climbed to a level unseen since April 2020 of 375,571 tonnes.

* China aluminium giant Hongqiao to publish carbon goals this year

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 951.4 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1074.2 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -41.86% to settled at 25 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 945 and below same could see a test of 938.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.8, a move above could see prices testing 970.2.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 938.6-970.2.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1074.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped amid  weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

*  The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean     

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 4% at 5616 as support seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again. Farmers are suffering a lot due to unseasonal rains. In many parts, the rains have caused heavy damage to many crops. China's soybean imports from Brazil fell sharply in the first two months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, customs data showed, as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter. China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, brought in 1.03 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in Jan-Feb, down nearly 80% from 5.14 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Custom showed. Rain in Brazil has slowed the harvest and exports in the South American country, forcing some crushers in China to consider curbing operations. Shipments from the United States to China in Jan-Feb totalled 11.9 million tonnes, nearly double the volume of 6.1 million tonnes in the previous year. China stepped up purchases of U.S. farm produce, including soybeans, after the two sides signed an initial trade deal in January 2020. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5763 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.79% to settled at 130775 while prices up 216 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5496 and below same could see a test of 5375 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5677, a move above could see prices testing 5737.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5375-5737.

* Soyabean gains as support seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days, weather will deteriorate again

* China's soybean imports from Brazil plunged in Jan – Feb on cargo delays

* China, brought in 1.03 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in Jan-Feb, down nearly 80% from 5.14 million tonnes a year earlier

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5763 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 3.84% at 1299.4 tracking rise in Soyabean prices and as Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. The crush was down from 184.654 million bushels in January and 166.288 million bushels in February 2020. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1283.55 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.74% to settled at 50795 while prices up 48.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1245 and below same could see a test of 1189 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1329, a move above could see prices testing 1357.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1189-1357.

* Ref soyoil prices gained tracking rise in Soyabean prices and as Export of oilmeals in April-February rises 49%

* Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne

* Support also seen due to tightening global supplies.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1283.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 3.14% at 1153.8 supported by an uptick in exports during March 1-20. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-20 rose between 5% and 7% from the same period in February, cargo surveyors said. Favorable weather, increased use of fertilizer and surging prices are expected to push Indonesia's palm oil production and exports to record highs in 2021/22, U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in Jakarta said in a report. Palm oil supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected while production declined to its lowest in five years. Traders are anticipating a double-digit growth in production after industry groups forecast a sharp rise in output during March 1-15. Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia rose nearly 20% on annual basis in January, the country's biggest palm group said, but output was disrupted by flood and stock fell to a six-month low. Indonesia exported 2.86 million tonnes of palm oil and its products in January, up 19.6% from the same month last year, data from the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 12.4 Rupees to end at 1139.7 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.74% to settled at 3562 while prices up 35.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1127 and below same could see a test of 1100.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1168.6, a move above could see prices testing 1183.4.       

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1100.2-1183.4.

* Crude palm oil prices gained supported by an uptick in exports during March 1-20.

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-20 rose between 5% and 7% from the same period in February

* Favorable weather, increased use of fertilizer and surging prices are expected to push Indonesia's palm oil production and exports to record highs in 2021/22

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 12.4 Rupees to end at 1139.7 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 5759 as COOIT and MOPA are expected to produce 89.50 lakh mustard throughout the country during the current Rabi season. Earlier according to the second advance production estimate of crop year 2020-21 released by the central government last month, mustard production in the country this year is 104.27 lakh tonnes. According to the assessment of the industry organization, Rajasthan, the country's largest mustard producing state, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year. Oil traders said that imported oil prices are going up, so the consumption of mustard oil has increased. One of the main reasons for increasing consumption of mustard oil is its purity. Oil market experts said that due to expensive imported oil, there is no scope for adulteration in mustard oil. The weather is favorable this year during the Rabi season and farmers taking interest in mustard cultivation has increased the area under sowing and the yield per hectare has also increased, so this year in the country Mustard records are expected to be produced. Uttar Pradesh is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of mustard. Punjab and Haryana are expected to produce 10.50 lakh tons of mustard, 10 lakh tons in Madhya Pradesh, 5 lakh tons in West Bengal, 4 lakh tons in Gujarat and about 10 lakh tons of mustard in the eastern and other states of the country. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5757.8 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.71% to settled at 45920 while prices up 221 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5639 and below same could see a test of 5519 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5819, a move above could see prices testing 5879.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5519-5879.

* Mustard prices gained as India's 2020-21 mustard seed production seen at 89.50 lakh tons

* Rajasthan, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year.

* Imported oil prices are going up, so the consumption of mustard oil has increased.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5757.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

-www.kediaadvisory.com      

Turmeric           

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.6% at 8238 as production decreased by 25 per cent compared to last year as poor returns forced many to shift to other crop. Support also seen amid increase in exports and supply constraints. Compared to last year, exports increased by around 40 per cent-- up to 1.60 lakh tonne of turmeric is exported to Bangladesh, Malaysia, Singapore, Gulf nations and countries with a significant population of Non-Resident Indians. In Nizamabad Mandi, there has been no change in the prices of all varieties of turmeric and 25,000 bags of turmeric were arrived compare to 20,000 bags in the previous season. Around 32,000 bags have arrived in Sangli Mandi against the arrival of 30,000 bags in the previous season. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and arrivals of new goods in the month of February. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7612.5 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.84% to settled at 8385 while prices up 130 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8130 and below same could see a test of 8020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8330, a move above could see prices testing 8420.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8020-8420.

* Turmeric gains as production decreased by 25 per cent compared to last year as poor returns forced many to shift to other crop.

* Support also seen amid increase in exports and supply constraints.

* Compared to last year, exports increased by around 40 per cent-- up to 1.60 lakh tonne of turmeric is exported

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7612.5 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera       

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 14780 as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14189.45 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.28% to settled at 4293 while prices down -15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14695 and below same could see a test of 14605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14845, a move above could see prices testing 14905.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14605-14905.

* Jeera dropped as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content.

* However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived as compared to 7,000 bags

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14189.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton     

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.57% at 21270 on profit booking amid fear of fresh restriction due rising Covid cases in India. A surge in India’s covid-19 graph has feared several industries and mills as states move to impose fresh restrictions this move could dent consumer demand and stall recovery. Fresh restriction will impact mills functioning and rising cases would also cause labor crunches this as well as demand will also be impacted, this would ultimately have weighed on cotton prices. Support to prices can be seen as due to lack of availability of raw cotton in spot markets as farmers cleared most of their stocks in early harvesting, at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now. According to an estimate by the Cotton Association of India, a body of traders, arrivals till February 28 this year since October 1 were 298.89 lakh bales (of 170 kg). Daily cotton supplies in the markets of Madhya Pradesh have dropped to around 20000 quintals as against 1 lakh quintal in October and November. Arrivals in mandis have reduced to 26,861 tonnes in one week compared to last week 34,458.9 tonnes. For the current marketing year (August 2020-July 2021), the US Department of Agriculture has pegged global production at a four-year low, while consumption will be higher than production for the second consecutive year. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -220 Rupees to end at 21820 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.04% to settled at 4022 while prices down -340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21110 and below same could see a test of 20940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21500, a move above could see prices testing 21720.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20940-21720.

* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking amid fear of fresh restriction due rising Covid cases in India.

* A surge in Covid-19 has feared several industries and mills as states move to impose fresh restrictions this move could dent consumer demand and stall recovery

* Daily cotton supplies in the markets of Madhya Pradesh have dropped to around 20000 quintals as against 1 lakh quintal in October and November.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -220 Rupees to end at 21820 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.35% at 5027 as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production. Further the old stock has already been disposed of. Kabali chana production is estimated to be close to 1.6 million tonnes, while the country's annual domestic consumption is 28 lakh tonnes, and there is no scope for imports, which is expected to increase the market further. There are still no more than 21-22 trucks coming on Lawrence Road, while 40-41 trucks were running daily during these days last year. However, government procurement will start from April, making further trade at these prices profitable. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.61% to settled at 76140 while prices up 67 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4977 and below same could see a test of 4927 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5061, a move above could see prices testing 5095.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4927-5095.

* Chana prices gained as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

* Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production and the old stock has already been disposed of.

* Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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