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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 56228 as the dollar faltered after recovering from lower levels after hot inflation data fanned concerns about a more aggressive Federal Reserve. The producer price index, a gauge of prices for final demand products, rose 0.7% over the previous month in January, the most since June 2022. India's January gold imports plunged 76% from a year earlier to a 32-month low on subdued demand after domestic prices rallied to record highs and as jewellers postponed purchases, hoping for a reduction in import duty. pressured by a stronger dollar and a pick up in Treasury yields after hot inflation data fanned The country imported 11 tonnes of gold in January, compared with 45 tonnes a year earlier. In value terms, January imports dropped to $697 million from $2.38 billion a year earlier. According to data from the World Gold Council, China's gold imports increased by 64% year-on-year last year, the highest level since 2018. The World Gold Council said that with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, China's gold imports rebounded strongly in the second half of last year. A total of 1,343 mt of gold were imported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 64%, the highest level since 2018. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.09% to settle at 13184 while prices are up 102 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55999 and below same could see a test of 55770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56368, a move above could see prices testing 56508.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55770-56508.
* Gold prices climbed higher as the dollar faltered after recovering from lower levels
* The producer price index, rose 0.7% over the previous month in January, the most since June 2022
* India's Jan gold imports plunge 76% to 32 – month low


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 65633 recovreing from lower levels after prices dropped as the dollar index turned positive and rose to above 104, approaching a 6-week high after stronger-than-expected producer price inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to extend its tightening cycle. US producer prices increased 0.7% month-over-month in January, the most in seven months and higher than market forecasts of 0.4%. Another report showed weekly claims edged down only marginally last week. Earlier, retail sales data highlighted the economy’s strength, suggesting the Federal Reserve has more room to hike rates. The latest data also showed that the annual inflation rate in the US slowed slightly to 6.4% in January, the lowest since October 2021 but above market expectations of 6.2%. Building permits in the United States rose 0.1% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 million in January 2023, hovering close to the lowest since May 2020, a preliminary estimate showed. Figures came below market expectations of 1.35 million. Money markets have now priced at least two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.2% by July. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US plunged to -24.3 in February of 2023, from -8.9 in January, compared to market expectations of -7.4. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.71% to settle at 14097 while prices are up 212 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65166 and below same could see a test of 64700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65939, a move above could see prices testing 66246.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64700-66246.
* Silver reccovered from lower levels after prices dropped as the dollar index turned positive and rose to above 104, approaching a 6-week high
* US producer prices increased 0.7% month-over-month in January, the most in seven months and higher than market forecasts of 0.4%.
* Report showed weekly claims edged down only marginally last week.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 6539 amid hopes for a Chinese demand recovery despite large build in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories soared last week, while distillate stockpiles fell, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. crude stocks rose 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels last week, their highest since June 2021, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for futures rose by 659,000 barrels last week, the EIA said. U.S. shale crude oil production in the seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise to its highest on record in March, the Energy Information Administration said. Shale production in the region is expected to rise 74,000 barrels per day to a record 9.36 million barrels per day, the EIA said. U.S. total crude output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is also expected to rise by 29,000 bpd to a record high of 5.68 million bpd in March. In the Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana, crude oil production is expected to rise 21,000 bpd to 1.20 million bpd in March, the highest level since March 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.93% to settle at 4073 while prices are up 13 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6490 and below same could see a test of 6440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6601, a move above could see prices testing 6662.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6440-6662.
* Crude oil gains amid hopes for a Chinese demand recovery despite large build in U.S. crude inventories.
* U.S. crude stockpiles rise to highest since June 2021 – EIA
* U.S. crude inventories soar by more than 16 mln bbls – EIA


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.97% at 202.3 on a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The price decline came despite recent increases in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with Freeport LNG's facility in Texas preparing to exit an eight-month outage and an overall drop in U.S. gas output so far this month. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.1 bcfd so far in February, after extreme cold earlier in February froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. That compared with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through March 3 except for some cold days around Feb. 17-18 and Feb. 24-March 1. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 116.8 bcfd this week to 119.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.09% to settle at 36749 while prices are down -6.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 193.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.5, a move above could see prices testing 216.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 193.5-216.7.
* Natural gas rose as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to a fresh eight-month high
* That price increase came despite forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.1 bcfd so far in February



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 777.5 as market participants kept up hopes for a demand recovery in top consumer China. Prices were supported by hopes that consumption of the metal will rebound eventually in China after the country removed harsh COVID-19 restrictions. The world's refined copper market saw a 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes. For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Yangshan copper premiums averaged $33.5/mt under warrants in January, down $20.39/mt MoM; and $24.38/mt under bill of lading, down $22.8/mt MoM. Entering February, the import losses reached 500-700 yuan/mt as SHFE/LME copper price ratio has not been significantly repaired. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined to 194 thousand in the week ending February 11th, down from the previous week's revised level of 195 thousand and below market expectations of 200 thousand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.12% to settle at 3578 while prices are up 9.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 771.8 and below same could see a test of 766 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 780.8, a move above could see prices testing 784.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 766-784.
* Copper prices gains as market participants kept up hopes for a demand recovery in top consumer China.
* Prices were supported by hopes that consumption will rebound eventually in China after the country removed harsh COVID-19 restrictions.
* Global refined copper market swings to 89,000 deficit in Nov – ICSG


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 269.3 as refined zinc output in February is expected at 501,600 mt, down 9,600 mt on the month and up 9.43% or 44,200 mt YoY. The less production days in February may lead to an output reduction of 34,800 mt. But the operating rates are expected to increase further as most smelters maintain stable production and only some smelters in Hunan carry out maintenance. Market attention is still focused on the recovery of Chinese consumption and whether European smelters will resume the production. According to the latest news, MMG Ltd has halted operations at its zinc mine in Australian’s Queensland state after two people employed by a contractor were missing following an incident at the mine. According to public information, Dugald River is 100% owned by the MMG Limited and is one of the world’s top 10 zinc operations. Due to the scale of the ore body, Dugald River is estimated to have a mine life of 20+ years to process an average of 1.7 million tonnes of ore per annum. The operation predominantly produces zinc concentrate, with by-products including lead and silver. The annual output in 2022 was 173,400 mt. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.22% to settle at 2430 while prices are up 0.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.2 and below same could see a test of 264.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271.3, a move above could see prices testing 273.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 264.9-273.1.
* Zinc dropped as the refined zinc output in February is expected at 501,600 mt, up 9.43% or 44,200 mt YoY.
* MMG Ltd has halted operations at its zinc mine in Australian’s Queensland state
* Market attention is still focused on the recovery of Chinese consumption and whether European smelters will resume the production.



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 212.2 on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses. Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are at 268,984 tonnes, against 95,881 tonnes on Dec. 30. Meanwhile, a wave of speculative investment has slowed, with $2.3 billion leaving base metals markets last week. Meanwhile, fears that higher interest rates will be needed to curb stickier than expected inflation continue to pressure stock markets and boosted the dollar, making dollar-priced. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 499 billion via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to some financial institutions and kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday. With CNY 300 billion of MLF loans maturing on the same day, the operation resulted in a net CNY 199 billion fresh fund injection into the banking system. The central bank also pumped CNY 203 billion through seven-day reverse repos while keeping borrowing cost unchanged at 2%. The People's Bank of China will encourage financial institutions to increase lending to private enterprises. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.92% to settle at 2613 while prices are up 0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.8 and below same could see a test of 205.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.1, a move above could see prices testing 215.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.3-215.9.
* Aluminium prices fell pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses.
* Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January.
* Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are at 268,984 tonnes, against 95,881 tonnes on Dec. 30.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 1009.3 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1158.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.43% to settle at 570 while prices are up 13.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 999.7 and below same could see a test of 990.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1014.4, a move above could see prices testing 1019.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 990.2-1019.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1158.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.56% at 6942 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7011.55 Rupees gained 37.05 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.15% to settle at 13390 while prices are down -110 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6862 and below same could see a test of 6782 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7060, a move above could see prices testing 7178.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6782-7178.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7011.55 Rupees gained 37.05 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 30800 as Jeera production has been projected at 4.14 lt in the current season. Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt. The acreage of jeera, is higher by 4.6 per cent this season. The report said the area under jeera increased 13 per cent in Rajasthan to 6.10 lakh hectares (lh). In Gujarat, the acreage dropped by 10 per cent to 2.75 lh. But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 122.4 Rupees to end at 31015.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.29% to settle at 4152 while prices are down -240 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30515 and below same could see a test of 30225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31200, a move above could see prices testing 31595.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 30225-31595.
* Jeera prices dropped as Jeera production has been projected at 4.14 lt in the current season
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 122.4 Rupees to end at 31015.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

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