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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 48396 as investors cheered U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank was unlikely to hike rates anytime soon. Powell said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back support. Global demand for gold rose in the second quarter to its highest quarterly level in a year as central banks and investors stepped up purchases, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. But with jewellery fabrication still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, gold use over the first six months of 2021 was lower than in any first half since 2008, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report. Demand from jewellers and central banks plunged when the novel coronavirus spread last year, unsettling state finances, shutting stores and hitting incomes. Indian gold demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021 from 35% below the pre-pandemic five-year average in the first half, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Higher demand from the world's second-biggest gold consumer could support global prices that have corrected nearly 4% so far in 2021, although a rise in imports of the precious metal would widen India's trade deficit and weigh on the rupee. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.99% to settled at 12395 while prices up 682 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48022 and below same could see a test of 47649 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48594, a move above could see prices testing 48793.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47649-48793.
* Gold jumped as investors cheered U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank was unlikely to hike rates anytime soon.
* Powell said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back support.
* Gold demand has yet to recover fully from COVID 19, says WGC
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.73% at 68200 amid softening dollar and signal by the US Federal Reserve that is in no rush to taper stimulus. Fed left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and bond-buying at the current $120 billion monthly paces. The dollar slipped after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reassurance that interest rate hikes remain distant helped put the brakes on the U.S. currency, which has been rallying for a month now. Data showed that while the U.S. economy grew solidly in the second quarter, boosted by massive government aid, growth fell short of expectations. Gross domestic product increased at a 6.5% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said. U.S. Treasury yields trended lower after Wednesday’s Fed statement, with inflation-adjusted real yields tumbling to a new low, weighing on the U.S. currency. The U.S. economy likely gained steam in the second quarter, with the pace of growth probably the second fastest in 38 years, as massive government aid and vaccinations against COVID-19 fueled spending on travel-related services. The anticipated acceleration in gross domestic product last quarter would lift the level of GDP above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.68% to settled at 8306 while prices up 1810 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67102 and below same could see a test of 66005 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68893, a move above could see prices testing 69587.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66005-69587.
* Silver rose amid softening dollar and signal by the US Federal Reserve that is in no rush to taper stimulus.
* Fed left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and bond-buying at the current $120 billion monthly paces.
* U.S. Federal Reserve’s reassurance that interest rate hikes remain distant helped put the brakes on the U.S. currency

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 5447 after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. crude inventories resumed a downward trend last week. The EIA report showed crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 4.089 million barrels last week, over a million barrels up from an expected drop of about 2.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.253 million barrels last week, more than twice the expected draw, the data showed. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.088 million barrels, much more than an expected drop of 435,000 barrels. The drawdown in crude inventories to their lowest level since January 2020 raised optimism that supplies will remain tight despite the production hikes set by OPEC+. These stocks rose for the first time in nine weeks the previous week, prompting concerns that demand was peaking in the world's largest consumer. Meanwhile, traders shrugged off separate data showing that India's crude oil imports dropped to their lowest level in eight months in June. Crude oil imports dropped 7.8 percent from May as refiners cut down processing in the face of a tumultuous second wave of the coronavirus, data on the website of the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.32% to settled at 6459 while prices up 44 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5406 and below same could see a test of 5365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5476, a move above could see prices testing 5505.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5365-5505.
* Crude oil seen supported after data from the U.S. EIA showed U.S. crude inventories resumed a downward trend last week.
* The EIA report showed crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 4.089 million barrels last week
* Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.253 million barrels last week, more than twice the expected draw, the data showed.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 301.9 on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.714 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 5.8% below the five-year average of 2.882 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slipped to 91.6 bcfd so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia early in the month. That would still be the most production seen during the month of July but was lower than June's 92.2-bcfd average and the all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 95.7 bcfd this week to 91.9 next week on expectations for less heat and air-conditioning demand. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv predicted on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April's 11.5-bcfd record. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have averaged 6.6 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.8 bcfd in June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.84% to settled at 14651 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 294.6 and below same could see a test of 287.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 306.9, a move above could see prices testing 311.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 287.2-311.8.
* Natural gas rose on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected.
* EIA forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23.
* Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slipped to 91.6 bcfd so far in July.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 757.55 after signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it was in no rush to tighten and efforts by China to calm fears of new regulation spread a bullish mood through markets. Also lifting copper were the threat of a strike at a major mine in Chile and progress of a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill in the U.S. Senate. The union at BHP Group Ltd's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest, on Wednesday urged its members to vote to strike, saying the company was attempting to impose its will and its contract offer was "insufficient". The powerful, 2,300-member union is set to vote on BHP's contract offer between Thursday and Saturday this week. Jerome Powell said the Fed was "some ways away" from substantial progress on jobs that is needed to start tapering. China stepped up attempts to calm investor nerves after a market rout this week by telling foreign brokerages not to "overinterpret" its latest regulatory actions. The global world refined copper market showed a 75,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 13,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.35% to settled at 3790 while prices up 6.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 752.6 and below same could see a test of 747.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 761.3, a move above could see prices testing 764.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 747.5-764.9.
* Copper prices rose after signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it was in no rush to tighten.
* Also lifting copper were the threat of a strike at a major mine in Chile and progress of a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill in the U.S. Senate.
* Union at BHP's Escondida copper mine urges members to strike

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 247.05 as the dollar slipped the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reassurance that interest rate hikes remain distant helped put the brakes on the U.S. currency. Germany’s annual consumer price inflation accelerated by more than expected to hit a 13-year high in July, leading services sector trade union Verdi to immediately demand “strong wage increases”. Consumer prices, harmonised to make them comparable with inflation data from other European Union countries, rose by 3.1% in July compared with 2.1% in June, the Federal Statistics Office said. The US interest rate was unchanged in consideration of potential risks for economic outlook according to Fed’s meeting, which corresponded with market expectation. Opinions came that Delta mutant will not greatly affect US economy, and the government was trying to stabilise market sentiment. The arrival of released reserves will take about two weeks, thus attention shall be paid to social restocking and influence on zinc prices. The U.S. economy likely gained steam in the second quarter, with the pace of growth probably the second fastest in 38 years, as massive government aid and vaccinations against COVID-19 fueled spending on travel-related services. The anticipated acceleration in gross domestic product last quarter would lift the level of GDP above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.14% to settled at 1867 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 245.1 and below same could see a test of 242.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 248.6, a move above could see prices testing 249.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 242.9-249.9.
* Zinc prices gained as the dollar slipped Fed’s reassurance that interest rate hikes remain distant helped put the brakes on the U.S. currency.
* The Fed’s rhetoric was still dovish, but was “more hawkish” than expected.
* The arrival of released reserves will take about two weeks, thus attention shall be paid to social restocking.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.84% at 1508.3 buoyed by strong demand from stainless steel mills and electric vehicle battery makers, amid tight supply. Supplies are under pressure this year due to disruptions at nickel mines in New Caledonia, Russia and Canada. Vale, one of the world’s largest producers, said nickel output declined in the second quarter of the year and it’s reviewing annual guidance. Production at Vale’s northeast Ontario operation halted when unionized workers went on strike on June 1 increasing extra charges consumers pay on top of nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange, as stockpiles of the metal dwindle. Meantime, electric-car maker Tesla Inc. struck a nickel-supply deal with BHP Group to avoid a future supply crunch. Healthy demand from stainless steel mills and electric vehicle battery makers is expected to underpin nickel prices over coming months, but rising supplies from top producer Indonesia are likely to weigh next year. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased solidly in June despite supply constraints hampering production at some factories, suggesting business spending on equipment could remain strong beyond the second quarter. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month, the Commerce Department said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.24% to settled at 2800 while prices up 27.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1488.9 and below same could see a test of 1469.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1519.5, a move above could see prices testing 1530.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1469.4-1530.6.
* Nickel prices rose buoyed by strong demand from stainless steel mills and electric vehicle battery makers, amid tight supply.
* Booming stainless steel output to sustain nickel prices for months
* Vale, one of the world’s largest producers, said nickel output declined in the second quarter of the year

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.05% at 206.3 supported by tight global supply and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging, and construction sectors. Demand for the metal used in cars and planes has bounced back strongly from the coronavirus-induced blow, with global aluminum consumption seen rising 8% to around 69 million this year. Still, China’s plans to continue releasing industrial metals from its reserves amid efforts to ease commodity price hikes and cost pressure on firms, concerns over the spread of the delta variant, and a surging dollar limited upside momentum in the near term. The U.S. economy contracted at a record average annualized rate of 19.2% from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, government data showed, confirming that the COVID-19 recession was the worst ever. The pace of recovery from the pandemic downturn, the deepest going back to 1947, was equally stunning. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said gross domestic product rebounded at a historic average rate of 18.3% between the second and fourth quarter of 2020. Germany’s annual consumer price inflation accelerated by more than expected to hit a 13-year high in July, leading services sector trade union Verdi to immediately demand “strong wage increases”. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.64% to settled at 2984 while prices up 4.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.1 and below same could see a test of 199.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.1, a move above could see prices testing 209.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.8-209.8.
* Aluminium prices rose supported by tight global supply and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging, and construction sectors.
* The U.S. economy contracted at a record average annualized rate of 19.2% from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019
* German inflation hits 13-yr high, union demands "strong wage increases"

 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.37% at 948.4 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.9 Rupees to end at 1054.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.46% to settled at 1079 while prices down -13.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 942 and below same could see a test of 935.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954.8, a move above could see prices testing 961.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 935.7-961.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 11.9 Rupees to end at 1054.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 5.99% at 9518 as the delayed monsoon and the planting activity of soybean is adversely affected due to deficient rains in central India, speculation are high that there could be of drop in sowing to the tune of 10-12% expected in market. Rainfall was fairly poor in many parts in the initial weeks of July, agriculturally the most critical month. More than the deficiency, this year’s uneven rain has been a cause of concern, agriculturally and climate-wise. Support also seen amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing. Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent. Planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 42 Rupees to 9610 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.59% to settled at 20330 while prices up 538 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 9006 and below same could see a test of 8494 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9774, a move above could see prices testing 10030.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 8494-10030.
* Soyabean prices gained as the delayed monsoon and the planting activity of soybean is adversely affected
* USDA reported that the condition of crops unexpectedly deteriorated last week.
* The soybean crop was rated 58% good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from a week earlier, and behind market forecasts.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  42 Rupees to 9610 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.33% at 1421.9 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1422.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 30240 while prices up 32.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1400 and below same could see a test of 1378 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1434, a move above could see prices testing 1446.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1378-1446.
* Ref soyoil gained as prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1422.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.67% at 1159.8 supported by lingering concerns over lower output. Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations. Considering the first half of the year domestic crude palm oil output is already 8% lower when compared with the same period last year, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Meantime, imports to India and China are falling due to high prices while demand for Indonesian oil is growing in India on higher supply levels and improved discounts. Indonesia has set the crude palm oil reference price lower in August, at $1,048.62 per tonne, the deputy minister for food and agriculture told. July's reference price was $1,094 per tonne. Export levies for crude palm oil remain unchanged at $175 per tonne, however, while export taxes will be lowered to $93 per tonne. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jul. 1-25 fell 1.5 percent to 1,150,452 tonnes from 1,167,989 tonnes shipped during Jun. 1-25. Malaysia maintained its August export tax for crude palm oil at 8% and lowered its reference price, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2.3 Rupees to end at 1187 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.95% to settled at 5708 while prices up 19.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1144.7 and below same could see a test of 1129.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1168.1, a move above could see prices testing 1176.5.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1129.7-1176.5.
* Crude palm oil prices gained supported by lingering concerns over lower output.
* Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations.
* Indonesia sets crude palm oil reference price lower in August
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2.3 Rupees to end at 1187 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 7673 as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 7737 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.28% to settled at 35100 while prices up 135 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7558 and below same could see a test of 7444 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7759, a move above could see prices testing 7846.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7444-7846.
* Mustard seed gained as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 7737 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 7392 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7280 Rupees dropped -51.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.34% to settled at 11290 while prices up 36 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7318 and below same could see a test of 7246 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7466, a move above could see prices testing 7542.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7246-7542.
* Turmeric gains as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7280 Rupees dropped -51.8 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 13210 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 65.05 Rupees to end at 13642.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.11% to settled at 5697 while prices up 45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13155 and below same could see a test of 13100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13280, a move above could see prices testing 13350.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13100-13350.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 65.05 Rupees to end at 13642.85 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 27410 paring gains on profit booking after prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry as countries continue re-opening efforts. World cotton stocks are projected at 89.3 million bales at the end of 2021/22, the lowest in three years. Meanwhile, global production is forecast 5% higher at 118.9 million bales, but still set to remain below 2019 record levels. Output is expected to decline in China as the industry becomes less competitive with rising labour costs. On the other hand, high cotton yields are projected in the US, Brazil, Australia and Pakistan due to favorable weather conditions and the increasing harvested area. The USDA's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 251,900 running bales (RB) for the 2021/2022 marketing year, primarily for Turkey, Pakistan, Vietnam, Mexico, and China. The report also showed exports of 246,100 RB for the new marketing year, up 32% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. Pink bollworm attack on cotton crop has been reported in some areas in Bathinda district. Farmers are claiming damage on the cotton sown earlier. The pink bollworm attack has been reported in Talwandi Sabo, Sangat and Rama blocks along with few villages adjoining Bathinda city. In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 27190 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.19% to settled at 5755 while prices down -30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 27330 and below same could see a test of 27240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27580, a move above could see prices testing 27740.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 27240-27740.
* Cotton pared gains on profit booking after prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry.
* World cotton stocks are projected at 89.3 million bales at the end of 2021/22, the lowest in three years.
* Meanwhile, global production is forecast 5% higher at 118.9 million bales, but still set to remain below 2019 record levels
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 27190 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.54% at 5198 as pulses crops in Maharashtra may be affected as these are grown mainly in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions where the monsoon rainfall so far was 59% and 11% above LPA, respectively. The north parts of Karnataka, where pulses are grown, have received 71% above normal rains this season until July 24. Waterlogged field for a long time might cut yield, as pulses don’t need continuous rains. Area under pulses continues to remain low in the current kharif season, raising the spectre of the government resorting to trade-restrictive measures like imposition of stock holding again in November-December to check of prices of these eatables. The Centre reduced the import duty on masur dal to zero and also halved the Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess on the lentil to 10 per cent, in a bid to boost domestic supply and check rising prices. Support seen earlier in the day A rise in prices of pulses had forced the government to put stock limits on July 2, a step not in conformity with the free-trade concept embraced by it as it diluted the Essential Commodities Act in June 2020. Last week, it eased the restrictions a bit due to traders’ protest. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 32.25 Rupees to end at 5004.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.17% to settled at 91000 while prices up 79 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5115 and below same could see a test of 5032 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5251, a move above could see prices testing 5304.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5032-5304.
* Chana prices gained as pulses crops in Maharashtra may be affected
* The Centre reduced the import duty on masur dal to zero
* The north parts of Karnataka, where pulses are grown, have received 71% above normal rains this season until July 24.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 32.25 Rupees to end at 5004.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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