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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 49443 as Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to mobilize more troops over the conflict in Ukraine drew investors to the safe-haven asset, offsetting pressure from a firmer dollar and expected U.S. rate hikes. Putin called up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and said Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal if the West pursued its "nuclear blackmail". Bullion, however, faced headwinds from the dollar which jumped to a new two-decade high, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers, with elevated Treasury yields adding further pressure. The dollar index approached 111 mark on Wednesday, the strongest since June of 2002, amid a flight to safety and as investors await another hawkish move by the Fed. The war in Ukraine is set to escalate after President Putin announced a partial military mobilization in Russia. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will likely deliver a 75 bps hike, the third straight three-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008. The central bank will also release quarterly projections for inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates, with markets betting interest rates will rise further this year and next. Other major central banks, including the Bank of England, are expected to raise interest rates this week to tame runaway inflation. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.51% to settle at 7688 while prices are up 268 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49181 and below same could see a test of 48920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49636, a move above could see prices testing 49830.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48920-49830.
* Gold recovers as Russian threats drive investors to safe haven asset
* Putin mobilises more troops for Ukraine
* Dollar hits fresh two-decade high


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.69% at 57298 as investors monitored increased geopolitical tensions with Russia and braced for another hefty interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Geopolitical tensions returned to the fore after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of his country's military in a significant escalation of war in Ukraine. As the war in Ukraine reaches nearly seven months and Moscow loses ground on the battlefield, Putin said in a rare national address that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect its territory. The Russian leader also backed plans for Russia to annex occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, appearing to threaten nuclear retaliation if Kyiv continues its efforts to reclaim that land. The monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England are due on Thursday. Existing home sales in the US edged 0.4% lower to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August of 2022, the lowest reading since May of 2020, and following a downwardly revised 5.7% drop in July. It marks the seventh consecutive month of falls in existing home sales, reflecting this year’s escalating mortgage rates. Figures compare with market forecasts of 4.7 million. The median existing-home sales price rose 7.7% from one year ago to $389,500. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.87% to settle at 16451 while prices are up 955 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56609 and below same could see a test of 55919 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57861, a move above could see prices testing 58423.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55919-58423.
* Silver inches higher as Putin escalates war
* Geopolitical tensions returned after Russian President Putin announced the partial mobilization of his country's military.
* Existing home sales in the US edged 0.4% lower to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August of 2022

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 6742 as U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose in the most recent week, as refiners increased processing to rebuild low product inventories. OPEC+ is now producing below its targets by a record 3.58 million barrels per day - about 3.5% of global demand - highlighting underlying tight supply in the oil market, even as recession fears drag oil prices lower. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia showed the group, known as OPEC+, showed that shortfall in August, which stood at more than OPEC number 3 producer the UAE's output, was a record and 24% higher than July's 2.89 million bpd in July. U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose in the latest week, according to American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks rose by about 1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 16. Gasoline inventories rose by about 3.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 1.5 million barrels. President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization in Russia. Gains came ahead of another outsized interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve that markets fear could derail global growth and dampen energy demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.23% to settle at 6940 while prices are down -2 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6607 and below same could see a test of 6471 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6915, a move above could see prices testing 7087.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6471-7087.
* Crude oil dropped as U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose in the most recent week, as refiners increased processing to rebuild low product inventories.
* Crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to Sept. 16 to 430.8 million barrels
* OPEC+ supply shortfall now stands at 3.5% of global oil demand


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 621.8 on forecasts for stronger U.S. gas demand this week than previously expected and renewed worries about a possible U.S. rail strike. A rail strike could boost demand for gas by threatening coal supplies to power plants. Gas prices rose despite expectations gas demand would decline next month when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.8 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. With the coming of cooler autumn weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slip from 92.3 bcfd this week to 89.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.3 bcfd so far in September from 11.0 bcfd in August. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.99% to settle at 4235 while prices are up 3.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 602.6 and below same could see a test of 583.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 645.3, a move above could see prices testing 668.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 583.4-668.8.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for stronger U.S. gas demand this week than previously expected and renewed worries about a possible U.S. rail strike.
* A rail strike could boost demand for gas by threatening coal supplies to power plants.
* Gas prices rose despite expectations gas demand would decline next month when the Cove Point LNG plant shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 644.2 as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of expected interest rate hikes by central banks across the globe to tame surging inflation. The US Federal Reserve will lead the way with another outsized rate increase that markets fear would derail global growth and dampen metals demand. Copper prices, often used as the world’s economic barometer, also came under pressure from recession fears as Europe grapples with an energy crisis that thwarted manufacturing activity while China’s economic outlook and Covid trajectory remains highly uncertain. Meanwhile, easing Covid-19 restrictions and more policy support from China, which accounts for half of global consumption, kept copper prices from further losses. Goldman Sachs also predicts that global demand for copper will begin to outstrip supplies by 2025, projecting prices to double from current levels. USDCNY weakened to a 26-month low of 7.0425, amid an imminent rate hike in the US as monetary policies between the world’s largest economies diverge further. Prior to market open, the PBoC set the midpoint rate at 7.0278 per dollar, the lowest since July 2020. In August, China's central bank slashed its loan prime rate as policymakers seek to revive a Chinese economic recovery following the recent wave of COVID cases and sporadic restrictions in some big cities. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.81% to settle at 4567 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 641.3 and below same could see a test of 638.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 649, a move above could see prices testing 653.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 638.3-653.7.
* Copper dropped as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of expected interest rate hikes by central banks across the globe to tame surging inflation.
* Copper prices, also came under pressure from recession fears as Europe grapples with an energy crisis that thwarted manufacturing activity.
* Goldman Sachs also predicts that global demand for copper will begin to outstrip supplies by 2025, projecting prices to double from current levels


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 278.3 amid a stronger dollar and as recession fears reduced demand for metals. Top consumer China imported 3,100 mt of refined zinc in August, down 17.09% on the month and 58.88% on the year. Still, concerns persist about further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy ahead of the coming winter. Smelters in Europe have been cutting production as high energy prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine are making it unprofitable. According to Europe’s metals trade association Eurometaux, half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production capacity has already been forced offline due to the power crisis. LME stocks currently stand at 75,700 tonnes, down by 123,625 tonnes on the start of the year. Almost a third of the remaining tonnage is earmarked for physical load-out. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has been sliding as well, hitting a fresh 2022 low of 58,407 tonnes this week. LME inventory in Europe continues to comprise a single lot at the Spanish port of Bilbao, while U.S. warehouses hold just 2,100 tonnes, all of it cancelled and due to depart. Nyrstar's 315,000-tonne-per-year Budel smelter in the Netherlands is the second to close fully after Glencore placed its Italian smelter on care and maintenance at the end of last year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.39% to settle at 1084 while prices are down -1.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 276.7 and below same could see a test of 275 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 280.7, a move above could see prices testing 283.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275-283.
* Zinc dropped amid a stronger dollar and as recession fears reduced demand for metals.
* Top consumer China imported 3,100 mt of refined zinc in August, down 17.09% on the month and 58.88% on the year.
* Smelters in Europe have been cutting production as high energy prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine are making it unprofitable.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.5% at 193.55 as markets braced for another hefty U.S. interest rate rise that will suppress economic growth. A global economic slowdown has shrunk investor appetite for riskier assets, and stock markets fell further after Russia's Vladimir Putin escalated the conflict in Ukraine by ordering the mobilisation of more troops. Stockpiles have also grown in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses and at major Japanese ports. In a sign that supply concerns on the LME are easing, quickly delivered cash aluminium slipped to a $21 a tonne discount versus the three-month contract from a $15 a tonne premium in August. The latest data showed China’s aluminum imports declined 19% year-on-year in August, amid record high production and tight overseas supply. Supply fears in China eased this year after power restrictions that curtailed production were relaxed. In August, the world’s biggest producer and consumer made 3.51 million tonnes, a record for a single month. In Europe, however, rising energy costs continue to squeeze supplies of the energy-intensive metal. Global primary aluminium output in August rose 3.49% year on year to 5.888 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.5 million tonnes in August, the IAI said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.42% to settle at 3772 while prices are down -2.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 192 and below same could see a test of 190.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.3, a move above could see prices testing 198.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 190.3-198.9.
* Aluminium prices fell as markets braced for another hefty U.S. interest rate rise that will suppress economic growth.
* Global aluminium output rises 3.49% year on year in August – IAI
* The latest data showed China’s aluminum imports declined 19% year-on-year in August, amid record high production and tight overseas supply


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 974.6 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.4 Rupees to end at 1124.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.27% to settle at 882 while prices are down -5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 971.2 and below same could see a test of 967.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 981, a move above could see prices testing 987.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 967.7-987.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.4 Rupees to end at 1124.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, dowmside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 7238 as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7302.7 Rupees dropped -59.7 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.87% to settle at 12890 while prices are down -12 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7206 and below same could see a test of 7176 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7278, a move above could see prices testing 7320.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7176-7320.
* Turmeric settled flat sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7302.7 Rupees dropped -59.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 24805 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 190.55 Rupees to end at 24498.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.04% to settle at 8079 while prices are up 190 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24605 and below same could see a test of 24400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24970, a move above could see prices testing 25130.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24400-25130.
* Jeera gains as support seen as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocksMandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 190.55 Rupees to end at 24498.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 33250 as support seen after reports Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118.24 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -1340 Rupees to end at 36680 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.14% to settle at 859 while prices are up 530 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32540 and below same could see a test of 31830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33720, a move above could see prices testing 34190.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31830-34190.
* Cotton gains as support seen after reports Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022.
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -1340 Rupees to end at 36680 Rupees.

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