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GOLD

Gold oncluded the July month on a high, ending with a 2.1% gain, its highest since March.

The precious metal recovered and was on track for its best monthly closing as top central banks took a more cautious stance on further monetary tightening.

Economic growth in Europe improved slightly, and inflation declined, leading to a stronger euro and a weaker U.S. dollar.

This, combined with expectations of the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, contributed to the positive performance of gold. As interest rates increase, the appeal of non-interest-paying bullion diminishes.

Outlook: We expect gold to trade lower towards 59500 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 59360 levels.

CRUDE

Oil prices surged to a three-month high, posting their strongest monthly gains since January 2022.

The rally was driven by indications of tightening global supply and increasing demand for the remainder of the year.

Both Brent and WTI crude reached their highest levels since late April for the third consecutive session, following five consecutive weeks of gains.

Saudi Arabia's expected extension of a voluntary 1 million barrels per day (bpd) oil output cut and falling production from OPEC countries further supported the positive momentum.

Additionally, declining oil inventories, particularly in the U.S., and strong demand prospects contributed to the impressive performance of crude prices.

Outlook: The easing of recession fears and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve refraining from further rate hikes this year are expected to contribute to sustained higher levels of crude prices.

BASE METALS

Base metal, particularly copper, prices rose to their highest level in over a month, driven by hopes of additional stimulus from China.

However, concerns about weak manufacturing data in China and its impact on demand limited the gains.

Despite the weak manufacturing sector in China, LME copper is set for its best monthly performance since January, which was influenced by expectations of increased manufacturing activity and strong demand when China ended its zero-COVID policy.

The softer U.S. dollar also supported sentiment, as it made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand.

The dollar's potential monthly loss is attributed to the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike cycle may have concluded.

Outlook: Prospective developments in China and expectations of stimulus measures are expected to provide support to metal prices.

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