Commodity Article : Gold bounced back; Crude continues to extend the winning momentum Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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GOLD
Gold prices on Tuesday inched higher, pausing the negative momentum seen in the last sessions. The yellow metal gained nearly 1 percent to end at $1973.7 per ounce.
The weaker US dollar index increased buying interest in gold. However, solid buying interest is being dampened by the fact that the banking crisis appears to have stabilised for the time being.
Markets are now pricing in a 48% chance of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May, as stress in the banking sector appears to be easing.
Outlook: Gold prices are likely to fall as the uncertainty surrounding the banking collapse subsides.
CRUDE
Crude oil on Tuesday continued to build onto the gains from the previous sessions, as both the benchmark indices ended with gains.
The rise in crude prices follows the suspension of some exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, which raised concerns about tightening supply, and market sentiment improved as fears of a banking crisis abated.
Oil prices have risen after Iraq was forced to halt exports of approximately 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) through Turkey after an arbitration decision confirmed Baghdad's consent was required to ship the oil.
Last week's drawdown in US crude oil inventories provided additional support, with inventories falling by approximately 6.1 million barrels.
Outlook: Oil prices are expected to remain high, owing to the easing of the banking crisis and supply shortages from Iraqi Kurdistan.
BASE METALS
The positive momentum from the previous day was extended further, as the base metals pack ended on a higher note on Tuesday.
Nickel prices rose to a three-week high on Tuesday, boosted by dwindling inventories, but rising supply from Indonesia dampened the gains.
Nickel prices fell 28% in about seven weeks due to concerns about weak demand and rising output in Indonesia, before rebounding last week.
Copper prices edged higher as investors braced for a credit crunch, which would limit economic growth and metals demand.
Outlook: Metal prices are likely to remain higher due to improved demand sentiment in major consumer China.
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