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Gold yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 47353 gaining in strength thanks to another drop in bond yields and a weaker dollar. The dollar lost ground against most of its rivals and yields on long term U.S. Treasury Notes hovered around one-month lows, weighed down by dovish comments from Fed officials. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his dovish stance on monetary policy and emphasized that any increase in inflation should be transitory. He also said the central bank will reduce its bond purchases before it commits to an interest rate increase. Elevated domestic prices and renewed coronavirus restrictions due to a surge in infections dulled physical gold purchases in India, while China stepped up bullion imports as demand gradually rebooted. Dealers were charging a premium of up to $4 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, up from the last week’s $3. China has given domestic and international banks permission to import large amounts of gold into the country, potentially helping to support global gold prices after months of declines. China is the world’s biggest gold consumer, gobbling up hundreds of tonnes of the precious metal worth tens of billions of dollars each year, but its imports plunged as the coronavirus spread and local demand dried up. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.28% to settled at 11363 while prices up 178 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46972 and below same could see a test of 46590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47584, a move above could see prices testing 47814.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46590-47814.

* Gold moved higher and settled at a nearly 8-week high, gaining in strength thanks to another drop in bond yields and a weaker dollar.

* The dollar lost ground and yields on long term U.S. Treasury Notes hovered around one-month lows, weighed down by dovish comments from Fed officials.

*  India demand falters as virus rages, China ramps up imports

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 68684 as retreating U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar bolstered the metal's appeal. Benchmark U.S. bond yields hovered near a one-month low hit in the previous session, while the dollar edged lower against its rivals. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his dovish stance on monetary policy and emphasized that any increase in inflation should be transitory. He also said the central bank will reduce its bond purchases before it commits to an interest rate increase. In U.S. economic news, a report released by the Commerce Department U.S. housing starts skyrocketed by 19.4% to an annual rate of 1.739 million in March after plunging by 11.3% to a revised rate of 1.457 million in February. A report from the University of Michigan said the consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 in April after soaring to 84.9 in March. Economic activity in the U.S. accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in each of the twelve Fed districts, highlighted improvement in a variety of areas, including consumer spending, auto sales and manufacturing activity. The Fed also noted reports on tourism were more upbeat, bolstered by a pickup in demand for leisure activities and travel. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.13% to settled at 8835 while prices up 144 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68025 and below same could see a test of 67367 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69306, a move above could see prices testing 69929.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67367-69929.

*  Silver prices gained amid as retreating U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar bolstered the metal's appeal.

* Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his dovish stance on monetary policy and emphasized that any increase in inflation should be transitory.

* A report released by the Commerce Department U.S. housing starts skyrocketed by 19.4% to an annual rate of 1.739 million in March

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 4738 amid concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in other major economies but secured a weekly gain on a stronger demand outlook and signs of economic recovery in China and the United States. China's first-quarter gross domestic product jumped 18.3% year on year, official data showed. That followed a big increase in U.S. retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims released on Thursday. Both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased their forecasts for oil demand growth for 2021, citing the stronger-than-expected rebound in activity in certain economies. Those forecasts were also supported by government data that showed overall U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels as refining activity picked up. Not all economies are recovering, however, as India's coronavirus infection rate hit a record while Germany's chancellor said a third wave of the virus had the country in its grip. Oil has recovered from pandemic-induced lows last year, helped by record cuts to oil output by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+. Some of the OPEC+ cuts will be eased starting in May, and the group meets on April 28 to consider further tweaks to the supply pact. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.92% to settled at 3894 while prices down -20 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4698 and below same could see a test of 4657 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4779, a move above could see prices testing 4819.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4657-4819.

* Crude oil settled lower amid concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in other major economies

* But secured a weekly gain on a stronger demand outlook and signs of economic recovery in China and the United States.

* Global oil demand and supply are set to be rebalanced in the second half of this year after the evaporation of demand in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 200.2 on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports and forecasts power generators will burn more gas next week. That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather through the start of May than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 9. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 91.6 bcfd in March but still well below the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week as the weather cools. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.0 bcfd so far in April, which would top March's monthly record of 10.8 bcfd. Germany imported 5.7% less natural gas in the first two months of 2021 but increased its bill by 2.6% over a year earlier, data from trade statistics office BAFA showed. BAFA's monthly figures showed January/February imports were 934,538 Terajoules (TJ), or 26.6 billion cubic metres (bcm), compared with 991,302 TJ recorded a year earlier. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.12% to settled at 12413 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 198.5 and below same could see a test of 196.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.7, a move above could see prices testing 203.2.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 196.8-203.2.

* Natural gas rose on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports and forecasts power generators will burn more gas next week.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather through the start of May than previously expected.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 61 bcf of gas into storage 

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.37% at 709.3 as Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.6% from a week earlier, the exchange said. Yangshan copper premium fell to $50 a tonne, its lowest since Nov. 20, indicating falling demand for imported copper into China despite the second quarter being a traditionally strong consumption season. US retail sales increased 9.8% last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, beating expectations for a 5.9% increase. Meanwhile, US jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. The Labor Department reported 576,000 first-time filings for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 10. Improved risk appetite boosted copper prices significantly. The three major US stock indexes all closed higher overnight, while 10-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest level in five weeks. Goldman Sachs said copper could reach $15,000 a tonne by 2025 and raised its 12-month target to $11,000 a tonne, while Citi said copper consumption could "materially overshoot our base forecasts in 2021". China produced 860,500 mt of copper cathode in March, rising 4.71% from February and 15.71% from a year ago, as some copper smelters recovered from maintenance and due to more operating days in the month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.64% to settled at 2703 while prices down -9.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 705.3 and below same could see a test of 701.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 716.2, a move above could see prices testing 723.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 701.3-723.1.

* Copper prices dropped as Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.6% from a week earlier

* Goldman Sachs said copper could reach $15,000 a tonne by 2025 and raised its 12-month target to $11,000 a tonne

* Citi said copper consumption could "materially overshoot our base forecasts in 2021"

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 228.1 as China’s industrial output slowed in March to 14.1%. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 8,100 mt in the week ended April 16 to 220,700 mt. The stocks fell 11,900 mt from Monday April 12. Stocks in Shanghai decreased due to increasing purchase volume of the downstream at low prices. Domestic medium-term loan facility net investment stood at 50 billion yuan, the interest rate remained unchanged for 13 consecutive months. US retail sales in March increased by 9.8% month on month, a record high in 10 months. U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March, but soaring lumber prices amid supply constraints could limit builders’ capacity to boost production and ease a shortage of homes that is threatening to slow housing market momentum. The sharp rebound reported by the Commerce Department added to robust retail sales in March in suggesting that the economy was roaring after a brief weather-related setback in February. Increasing COVID-19 vaccinations, warmer weather and massive fiscal stimulus are driving the economy, with growth this year expected to be the strongest in nearly four decades. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.04% to settled at 1728 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 227.1 and below same could see a test of 226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 229.6, a move above could see prices testing 231.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 226-231.

* Zinc prices ended with losses as China’s industrial output slowed in March to 14.1%

* China's first quarter GDP print slightly misses expectations

* U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.91% at 1214.4 as pressure after Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 135,000 wmt from April 9 to 5.62 million wmt as of April 16. China's refined nickel cathode output fell 4.8% in March from the previous month to 13,021 tonnes. The volume was also down 6.5% year-on-year as only two smelters - Jinchuan Group and Xinjiang Xinxin Mining - opted to make cathodes, with others focusing on nickel sulphate used in electric-vehicle batteries. First-quarter nickel cathode output was up 0.9% year-on-year at 39,700 tonnes. U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March, the Commerce Department said, adding to robust retail sales data the prior day, suggesting the economy was roaring. Russian metals producer Nornickel said it will boost output of nickel products at its Harjavalta plant in Finland as it bets on the expanding market for battery materials needed for electric vehicles (EV). Finland's state mining investment firm Finnish Minerals Group, German chemicals giant BASF and Finnish utility Fortum are among companies currently forming an EV battery cluster in Finland. Refined nickel imports rose YoY in January and February, imports to exceed 10,000 mt again in March. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to strengthen market regulation of raw materials to ease cost pressures for companies amid rising global commodities prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.67% to settled at 1326 while prices down -23.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1201.4 and below same could see a test of 1188.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1236.1, a move above could see prices testing 1257.9.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1188.5-1257.9.

* Nickel prices dropped as pressure after Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 135,000 wmt

* China's refined nickel cathode output fell 4.8% in March from the previous month to 13,021 tonnes

* U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March, adding to robust retail sales data the prior day, suggesting the economy was roaring.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 187.15 on profit booking after data showed China's industrial production increased 14.1 percent year-on-year in March 2021, easing from a 35.1 percent jump in January-February combined and below market consensus of a 17.2 percent rise. Aluminium prices rallied in recent sessions as the Asian country’s drive to curb output adding to supply concerns during a seasonal demand pick-up. The metal reached the highest in almost three years on the LME (London Metal Exchange) and hit a decade-high in Shanghai on speculation that China will enact deeper supply cuts as part of a crackdown on industrial emissions. China’s aluminum inventories have fallen from an 11-month high reached in late March. That’s a sign that China is exiting a seasonal slowdown in demand seen around its Lunar New Year. China's March aluminium output rose from a year earlier to a monthly record, official data showed, despite curbs on energy use in the smelting hub of Inner Mongolia, as new capacity came on stream. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's top aluminium producer, was up 8.5% year-on-year at 3.28 million tonnes last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said, beating the previous monthly high of 3.27 million tonnes reached in December 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.58% to settled at 1964 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 186.5 and below same could see a test of 185.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.3, a move above could see prices testing 189.3.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 185.7-189.3.

*  Aluminum prices dropped on profit booking after data showed China’s industrial production rises less than expected

* China March aluminium output hits monthly record as new capacity comes on stream

* Primary aluminium output in China, was up 8.5% year-on-year at 3.28 million tonnes last month

Mentha oil​​​​​​​   

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 964.2 on some low level buying after dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.8 Rupees to end at 1058.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20% to settled at 48 while prices up 3.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 961.6 and below same could see a test of 958.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 967.4, a move above could see prices testing 970.5.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 958.9-970.5.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.8 Rupees to end at 1058.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gains  on some low level buying after dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean     

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 7114 on concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China made huge purchases of grain and oilseeds. Soyabean production for the current season (October 2020-September 2021) has been projected at 104.55 lakh tonnes (lt), besides an opening stock of 5.16 lt. This is against last year’s production of 93.06 lt and opening stock of 1.70 lakh tonnes. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in its second advance estimates of agricultural production, had pegged soyabean output at 137.1 lt. The SOPA said that out the total projected soyabean production, nearly 75 lt had arrived by March-end with 58.5 lt being crushed. Farmers could be holding 36.64 lt stocks. The Centre has pegged the soyabean crop higher at over 130 lt and SOPA at over 100 lt. The actual figure could be somewhere between. So, the huge rise in soyabean prices seem unjustified based on speculation over supplies. According to SEA, soyabean prices are about ₹27,500 a tonne higher than the same period year ago, while soyameal prices free-alongside ship are $710 (₹53,375) a tonne compared with $441 (₹33,150) a year ago. Soyameal consumption for feed dropped during the October-March period of the current season to 27 lt from 29.25 lt in the same period a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 137 Rupees to 7359 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.81% to settled at 101795 while prices up 92 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7012 and below same could see a test of 6911 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7257, a move above could see prices testing 7401.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6911-7401.

* Soyabean prices rallied on concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China made huge purchases of grain and oilseeds.

* Soyabean production for the current season has been projected at 104.55 lakh tonnes (lt), besides an opening stock of 5.16 lt.

* The SOPA said that out the total projected soyabean production, nearly 75 lt had arrived by March-end with 58.5 lt being crushed.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  137 Rupees to 7359 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil    

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 1368.2 as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The food ministry has sent a proposal to the Empowered Group of Ministers to review edible oil prices, and a meeting may be called soon. The government is likely to review edible oil prices soon. Sources said a decision on import duty reduction may be taken in that meeting. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1400 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.4% to settled at 35615 while prices up 11.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1360 and below same could see a test of 1351 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1377, a move above could see prices testing 1385.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1351-1385.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021.

* Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production.

* Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the USDA's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1400 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil       

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.24% at 1172.6 tracking rise in Malaysian prices lifted by tight supplies and stronger exports in April. India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports. However upside seen limited as higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market. The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. The Brazilian government temporarily reduced its biodiesel blending requirement for diesel fuel to 10% from 13%, according to a Mines and Energy Ministry statement that cited strong demand for soy as a reason for the decision. In India, the biggest importer of Malaysian palm oil, buying activity has slowed as a surge in COVID-19 cases increased risks of a full lockdown in one state, which could hit vegetable oil demand during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The market was further weighed down by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showing end-March palm oil stocks rose 10.7% from the previous month to 1.45 million tonnes. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 10.9 Rupees to end at 1197.2 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.52% to settled at 4380 while prices up 14.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1165.5 and below same could see a test of 1158.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1177, a move above could see prices testing 1181.5.   

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1158.5-1181.5.

* Crude palm oil prices gained tracking rise in Malaysian prices lifted by tight supplies and stronger exports in April.

* India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports.

* Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 10.9 Rupees to end at 1197.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.24% at 6987 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 154.5 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.02% to settled at 75570 while prices up 153 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6831 and below same could see a test of 6676 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7178, a move above could see prices testing 7370.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6676-7370.

*  Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.

*  A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February.

* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 154.5 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 8210 as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7661.75 Rupees dropped -91.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.81% to settled at 9895 while prices up 22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8112 and below same could see a test of 8014 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8364, a move above could see prices testing 8518.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8014-8518.

*   Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5%

* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.

*  Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7661.75 Rupees dropped -91.05 Rupees.

Jeera       

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 14365 as prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.64% to settled at 6531 while prices down -125 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14250 and below same could see a test of 14140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14560, a move above could see prices testing 14760.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14140-14760.

* Jeera dropped as prices remained under pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops

*  In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year

* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.56% at 21440 on profit booking after USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 122,300 Running Bales for 2020/2021, down 55% from the previous week. The U.S. Agriculture Department's weekly crop progress report showed 8% of the total 2021 cotton crop was planted in the week ending April 11, slightly above the five-year average of 7%. The cotton area harvested and the cotton production in India have shown a significant rise in the MY (market year) 2019/20 as compared to the area harvested in MY 2018/19. The cotton area harvested, and the cotton production has increased by 5.56 per cent and 14.34 per cent to 13.30 million hectares and 29.50 million 480-lb bales respectively in MY 2019/20 over MY 2018/19. It is expected to increase in the upcoming MY 2020/21 with higher demand for cotton yarn and fabric for exports. It also triggered cotton fibre and yarn prices in the beginning of the year 2021. The purchase of cotton by the government of India under the MSP programme has been done in various states which has secured approximately more than 24.00 per cent of total production. The area harvested and production is expected to move up to 13.40 million hectares and 29.50 million 480-lb bales in the MY 2020/21. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.15% to settled at 5761 while prices down -340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21240 and below same could see a test of 21050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21760, a move above could see prices testing 22090.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21050-22090.

* Cotton dropped on profit booking after USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales down 55% from the previous week. 

* USDA weekly crop progress report showed 8% of the total 2021 cotton crop was planted, slightly above the five-year average of 7%.

* The purchase of cotton by the government of India under the MSP programme has been done in various states 

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 5755 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 107.05 Rupees to end at 5759.05 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.88% to settled at 137610 while prices up 25 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5688 and below same could see a test of 5621 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5859, a move above could see prices testing 5963.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5621-5963.

* Chana prices gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.

* Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states.

*  The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in AP, Maharashtra, MP, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 107.05 Rupees to end at 5759.05 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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