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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 44423 on a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields, while hopes of a faster economic recovery further dampened demand for safe-haven bullion. The COVID-19 in the US deteriorated, and the number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths all accelerated. The Biden administration called on States to slow down the relaxation of pandemic prevention measures. U.S. Treasury yields held close to one-year highs reached on March 18, while the dollar began the week firmly as U.S. economic strength and a vaccine rollout proceeding much more quickly than in Europe, drew investors into the greenback. Open interest in Gold futures markets shrunk for the third consecutive session, this time by around 5.9K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume extended the choppy activity and dropped by more than 28K contracts. Speculators raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold and cut them in silver contracts in the week to March 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Market participants are waiting for U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure spending package on Wednesday, which is speculated to be in the $3 trillion to $4 trillion range. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.1% to 1,037.50 tonnes from 1,036.62 tonnes on Friday. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.27% to settled at 12631 while prices down -275 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44108 and below same could see a test of 43792 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44740, a move above could see prices testing 45056.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 43938-45488.

* Gold prices moved higher rebounding from recent losses, due largely to some short-covering and bargain hunting. 

*  A weaker dollar and data showing a faster than expected pace of expansion by Chinese factory activity also contributed to gold's advanced. 

* Private businesses in the US hired 517K workers in March of 2021, compared to market forecasts of 550K. 

Silver       

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 63124 as the dollar index firmed near a multi-month peak and US treasury yields soared to a new 14-month high amid expectations of a huge US economic rebound on the back of fiscal spending and as vaccination gathers pace. Meantime, the outlook in Europe remains more vulnerable as a third wave of Covid-19 prompted the extension or reimposition of lockdowns. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to a 14-month peak bolstered by hopes of stronger growth and inflation ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden's multi trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. Germany's benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to its highest level in over a week, pushed higher again by rising U.S. Treasury yields in the wake of stimulus and vaccination progress. U.S. President Joe Biden is set to outline his infrastructure spending plan on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. The economic package worth about $3 billion will be split into two parts, with the first one focused primarily on transportation and other infrastructure. The U.S. jobs data due Friday is expected to signal that the labor market recovery remains on track. The dollar rose for a second day amid expectations that Biden's infrastructure initiative could further bolster growth in the world's largest economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.86% to settled at 11562 while prices down -1050 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62715 and below same could see a test of 62305 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63860, a move above could see prices testing 64595.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 61971-64871.

* Silver prices gained as some pressure seen on dollar after data showed the private payrolls gain shown in the ADP National Employment Report was below expectations.

* Meantime, the outlook in Europe remains more vulnerable as a third wave of Covid-19 prompted the extension or reimposition of lockdowns.

* President Joe Biden is set to outline how he intends to pay for a $3 trillion to $4 trillion infrastructure plan.

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 4455 as shipping traffic resumed through the Suez Canal after days on hold and attention switched to an OPEC+ meeting this week where the extension of supply curbs may be on the table amid new coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. Ships were moving through the Suez Canal again on Tuesday after tugs refloated the giant Ever Given container carrier, which had been blocking a narrow section of the passage for almost a week, causing a huge build-up of vessels around the waterway. With the likelihood that the disruption will prove minimal, the market is turning its focus to Thursday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia in Vienna, collectively known as OPEC+. Saudi Arabia is prepared to accept an extension of the production cuts through June, and is also ready to prolong voluntary unilateral curbs amid the latest wave of coronavirus lockdown. With oil prices making steady gains earlier this year, OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, had hoped to ease output cuts. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to keep its production unchanged for May when the group meets next week, "with a still large ramp-up of 3.4 million barrels per day expected by September", the bank said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.11% to settled at 4170 while prices down -31 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4406 and below same could see a test of 4357 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4519, a move above could see prices testing 4583.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4242-4574.

* Crude oil prices moved sharply lower amid concerns about the outlook for energy demand.  

* Data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week to March 26

* Saudi wants OPEC+ to extend oil cuts into June

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 192.6 as projections for milder weather tempered the outlook for heating demand, overshadowing record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Still, delayed export deliveries due to a stranded container ship blocking natural gas and crude oil carriers in the Suez Canal and the latest Energy Information Administration storage report showing a bigger-than-expected withdrawal capped losses. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, when extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and puts feedgas on track to match the monthly record of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Meanwhile, shipping traffic through Egypt's Suez Canal has resumed after a giant container ship that had been blocking the busy waterway for almost a week was refloated. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.38% to settled at 12874 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 190.1 and below same could see a test of 187.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.3, a move above could see prices testing 200.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 186-197.

* Natural gas fell on bets that milder weather would curb heating demand, but losses were capped by record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. 

*  EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 19.

* Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd next week

Copper       

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 665.5 pressured as the yield of U.S. bonds rose sharply, and the U.S. dollar index continued to climb. However downside seen limited as demand in top consumer China ahead of a seasonally-strong consumption season lifted prices. Aiding prices were Chinese demand ahead of a seasonally-strong second quarter and low treatment charges for copper concentrate amid limited mined supplies. Investors also eye details later this week of a large U.S. infrastructure bill that could boost metals demand. LME copper was been trading in range-bound for most of March, easing 2% so far this month, as rising exchange inventories and falling premiums in China pressured a price rally that pushed prices to near a record high in February. China's Jiangxi Copper Co, aimed to boost copper cathode output by 5.3% year-on-year to 1.73 million tonnes in 2021. Annual profits at China's industrial firms surged in the first two months of 2021, highlighting a rebound in the country's manufacturing sector and a broad revival in economic activity from the coronavirus crisis early last year. Profits stood at 1.114 trillion yuan ($170.31 billion) in the first two months of 2021, up 179% from the same period last year when the COVID-19 pandemic paralysed economic activity, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.9% to settled at 2737 while prices down -3.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 662.6 and below same could see a test of 659.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 670.4, a move above could see prices testing 675.3.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 663-673.6.

* Copper prices gains as China's factory growth accelerates the most in 3 months, bolsters economic recovery

*  Chinese factory activity normally goes dormant during the Lunar New Year break, but this year millions of workers stayed put due to COVID-19 fears

* Canada's Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd said its Oyu Tolgoi mining unit in Mongolia declared force majeure on some Chinese copper concentrate contracts

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 219 pressured by concerns over a third wave of the coronavirus hitting the continent. The US dollar index hit a new high in more than four months in volatile trading, and the rising yield of US bonds also suppressed LME zinc. However, the Biden administration will push forward the $3 trillion infrastructure plan this week. The US will announce trillions of infrastructure plans this week to boost market confidence, and the social inventories continued to decrease, which will once again boost bullish confidence and support the upward trend of zinc prices. The Ever Given was pulled free from the Suez Canal on Monday after cutting off traffic in the vital waterway for six days, but the disruptions to global trade will continue to reverberate. Annual profits at China's industrial firms surged in the first two months of 2021, highlighting a rebound in the country's manufacturing sector and a broad revival in economic activity from the coronavirus crisis early last year. Profits stood at 1.114 trillion yuan ($170.31 billion) in the first two months of 2021, up 179% from the same period last year when the COVID-19 pandemic paralysed economic activity, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. They were also up 72.1% from the 2019 levels, bringing the two-year average growth to 31.2%, according to NBS. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.28% to settled at 1732 while prices down -1.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217.5 and below same could see a test of 216.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.5, a move above could see prices testing 224.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

*   Zinc trading range for the day is 216.9-222.5.

*  Zinc prices gained as treatment charges for zinc concentrate are likely to continue to fall, and environmental restrictions still limited zinc ingot supply.

* China Manufacturing Growth at 3-Month High: NBS

* China Non Manufacturing PMI Highest in 4 Months: NBS

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 1171.8 as investors remained cautious as sentiment continued to be dominated by oversupply concerns after China's Tsingshan Holding Group said it would provide domestic markets with an extra 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte. Biden is expected to announce an infrastructure stimulus plan focusing on transportation on Wednesday. Biden's infrastructure plan may be raised to a maximum of $4 trillion, including a tax increase of up to $3.5 trillion. The focus of the market has gradually shifted to new infrastructure. In addition, Waller, director of the Federal Reserve, said that the rise in bond yields is a good sign of economic recovery and should not be intervened. This also reflects that the US monetary policy has not completely turned around, which has alleviated the short position sentiment in the market to some extent. Japan's Sumitomo Corp said its Ambatovy nickel project in Madagascar resumed operation on March 23 after being shut since March 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis. Refined nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses dropped to their lowest since June 2019 at 9,339 tonnes. China is expected to lead the recovery of East Asian and Pacific economies this year, but many nations will record sub-par growth as they struggle to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, according to new World Bank forecasts released. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.36% to settled at 1699 while prices down -12.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1156.6 and below same could see a test of 1141.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1197.8, a move above could see prices testing 1223.9.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1165-1197.

*  Nickel prices gained as support seen after China’s economic recovery continued in March driven by surge in the service sector

* Nickel prices have been supported by rising demand from the electric vehicle batteries sector, solid consumption from the stainless steel industry and supply chain disruption

*  However upside seen limited following Tsingshan's announcement to produce a large amount of nickel matte in Indonesia earlier this month.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 176.25 as dollar held near its highest since November buoyed by hopes over improving U.S. economic data and the availability of coronavirus vaccines. However downside seen limited amid tightening supplies and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Inner Mongolia, a major coal-fired production hub in northern China, said it would stop approving new projects as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets this quarter. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in a year in March. Recently, US President Joe Biden doubled his 100-day vaccination target to 200 million doses. The US government has stepped up its vaccination plan. The Federal Reserve will limit dividends of most Wall Street banks at the end of the second quarter. On the data front, U.K. retail sales partly recovered in February, with sales volumes increasing by 2.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Germany’s Ifo Institute business climate index rose to 96.6 in March from 92.7 in February, outstripping analyst expectations to show sentiment at its highest level in almost two years. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.26% to settled at 1213 while prices down -1.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 175.4 and below same could see a test of 174.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 177.8, a move above could see prices testing 179.3.  

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 175.3-178.7.

*  Aluminium prices gained as a crackdown on energy use in Inner Mongolia leaves a question mark over supply.

*  Japan buyers agree to pay Q2 aluminium premiums of $148-149/T

* EU imposes tariffs on Chinese aluminium producers

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 962.7 on low level buying after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -17.6 Rupees to end at 1076.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.11% to settled at 40 while prices up 3.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 941.1 and below same could see a test of 919.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.5, a move above could see prices testing 988.4.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953-975.8.

*  In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1064.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained  as some support seen on level after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

 * The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean​​​​​​​      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.77% at 5935 after reports that increasing feed demand has boosted China’s soybean import outlook. Support also seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again. Farmers are suffering a lot due to unseasonal rains. In many parts, the rains have caused heavy damage to many crops. The USDA estimates China’s soybean imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is expected to hit a record high of 100 million tonnes. Recovering feed demand is forecast to lift China’s soybean crush volume to 99 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year compared to 97.5 million tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing year. The USDA reported export inspections of 489,405 tonnes of soybeans for the week ended March 18, down 10.8% from the week prior and 16.7% lower than the same week a year ago. China's soybean imports from Brazil fell sharply in the first two months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, customs data showed, as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter. Improved crop weather in South America following recent dryness in Argentina and excessive rains in key parts of Brazil added pressure. New-crop futures have been limited by an expected increase in U.S. plantings this spring. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -18 Rupees to 5978 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.93% to settled at 84100 while prices up 103 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5844 and below same could see a test of 5753 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5990, a move above could see prices testing 6045.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5830-6096.

* Soyabean rallied and crossed 6000 level as soybean demand from millers increased on good export demand of soymeal along with improved domestic demand

* However upside seen limited on expectations of higher U.S. planting and improved weather in South America.

* The U.S. soybean crush likely fell to 4.952 million short tons in February, or 165.1 million bushels.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  54 Rupees to 6032 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 1249.4 on profit booking as government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1273.95 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.41% to settled at 38895 while prices down -14.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1240 and below same could see a test of 1232 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1262, a move above could see prices testing 1276.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1229-1295.

* Ref soyoil prices gained tracking rise in soyabean prices as export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year

* Support also seen due to tightening global supplies.

* However government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1266.15 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 1130.8 tracking weakness in Malaysian prices as weak demand from China weighed on market sentiment ahead of March output and export data. Pressure also seen amid expectations of higher production further weighed on the market. Pressure also seen after reports that cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. China, the world's second-largest palm oil buyer, has allowed the import of red palm oil from Malaysia, the Southeast Asian nation said. China implemented new standards starting March 1 that allowed unrestricted imports of premium palm oil from Malaysia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said in a statement. "The newly announced Chinese group standard allows the import of red palm oil without the barrier effective from 1 March 2021," said MPOB. By the end of the year 2021, palm oil stock in Indonesia will be 2.67 million tonnes according to the Palm Oil Association of Indonesia. Which is much lower than the 4.87 million tonnes in the year 2020. Favorable weather, increased use of fertilizer and surging prices are expected to push Indonesia's palm oil production and exports to record highs in 2021/22, U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in Jakarta said in a report. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1131 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.98% to settled at 1990 while prices down -7.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1126 and below same could see a test of 1121.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1137.8, a move above could see prices testing 1144.8.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  CPO trading range for the day is 1037-1098.6.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains as support seen after data showed Malaysian Exports for March rose 26.8 percent

* Malaysia's March palm oil exports rise 26.8 pct – ITS

* Malaysia's March palm oil exports rise 27.6% – AmSpec Agri

*  In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -7.7 Rupees to end at 1123.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 5696 on profit booking after Madhya Pradesh government had postponed the procurement of crop due to bad weather. The Ministry of Agriculture Department has announced a new date for the production of gram and mustard crop in the agricultural produce mandis of Madhya Pradesh and the procurement work is scheduled to be started from 27-03-2021. There is good news for the farmers of the state. Procurement of mustard in Rajasthan will start from April 1. According to Cooperative Minister Udayalal Anjana, a target has been set to purchase 12 lakh 22 thousand 775 metric tons of mustard. Mustard will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 4650 per quintal. According to the assessment of the industry organization, Rajasthan, the country's largest mustard producing state, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year. The weather is favorable this year during the Rabi season and farmers taking interest in mustard cultivation has increased the area under sowing and the yield per hectare has also increased, so this year in the country Mustard records are expected to be produced. Uttar Pradesh is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of mustard. Canada’s Canola seed exports to China are strong despite China continuing to block Canada’s two largest canola exporters, and China maintaining a restrictive dockage requirement of one percent on its canola imports. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 5688.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.56% to settled at 42210 while prices down -43 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5655 and below same could see a test of 5615 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5735, a move above could see prices testing 5775.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5572-5750.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as arrivals increased on commencement of new season crop arrivals in the mandis.

* Arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal rose compared to last Month.

* However unseasonal rains and hailstorms in key states like Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra and UP were observed but no major crop damage was reported.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -88.5 Rupees to end at 5600 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric       

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.64% at 8568 on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and short-covering. Projections of lower production, too, have been supporting turmeric prices this year. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks from Saturday. In the Erode market in Tamil Nadu, the modal price for superior variety finger variety turmeric increased to ₹7,905 a quintal from ₹7,763. Turmeric prices had in fact increased over ₹9,000 a quintal at the beginning of this month on projections of a lower crop this year. Prices are about 30 per cent higher compared with the same period a year ago. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees dropped -28.1 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.11% to settled at 7245 while prices up 138 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8466 and below same could see a test of 8362 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8662, a move above could see prices testing 8754.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8220-8712.

* Turmeric dropped as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* Prices seen pressure as sentiments again drown down after the Central government clarified that a turmeric board would not be set up in Nizamabad

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees gained 131.7 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 14770 due to lower production and yields in Rajasthan and Gujarat coupled with strong export prospects. Further, FISS in its crop projection for 2020-21, has estimated a 10.6 per cent drop in cumin seed output at 4.79 lakh tonnes against 5.35 lakh tonnes previous year. The yield is likely to be poor due to climatic adversities in the growing regions. All India yield per hectare may be lower by 3.6 per cent at 504 kg (522 kg last year). The cultivation is 7.3 per cent lower at 9.50 lakh hectares against 10.26 lakh hectares in the previous year. Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.91% to settled at 4206 while prices up 10 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14690 and below same could see a test of 14605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14880, a move above could see prices testing 14985.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14630-14790.

* Jeera dropped as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month over the previous month

* New season crop arrivals are reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, seems to have led to higher mandi arrivals.

* However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 21410 as China could import more cotton to replace fiber from Xinjiang that’s being rejected by some Western companies and threatens to hurt its booming textile export industry. India has been able to export good quality cotton this year to Bangladesh, China, among other nations. During the cotton season of 2020-21, CCI has procured 92 lakh bales under MSP operations. For the last six weeks, cotton prices have been ruling much above MSP, and currently they are 15-20% above MSP. Therefore, the intervention of the agency has not been required after mid-February. So, farmers are getting Rs 6,400 to Rs 6,500 per quintal as against the MSP of Rs 5,825 per quintal. Initially, it was expected by the trade and market sources that CCI may be required to buy at least 1.5 crore bales but since the farmers are getting good price from the market forces itself, MSP intervention is not required now. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet is to allow import of cotton and yarn through land route (including India) aimed at ensuring provision of raw material to the value-added sector at cheaper rates. In spot market, Cotton gained by 150 Rupees to end at 21580 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.88% to settled at 7796 while prices up 30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21250 and below same could see a test of 21080 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21560, a move above could see prices testing 21700.        

Trading Ideas:            

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 21100-21800.

*  Cotton prices settled flat as China may boost cotton imports to cut Xinjiang fiber in exports

* During the cotton season of 2020-21, CCI has procured 92 lakh bales under MSP operations.

* ECC to allow import of cotton, yarn from India

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 21620 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.66% at 5080 as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production. Further the old stock has already been disposed of. Kabali chana production is estimated to be close to 1.6 million tonnes, while the country's annual domestic consumption is 28 lakh tonnes, and there is no scope for imports, which is expected to increase the market further. There are still no more than 21-22 trucks coming on Lawrence Road, while 40-41 trucks were running daily during these days last year. However, government procurement will start from April, making further trade at these prices profitable. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 4960.7 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.23% to settled at 64450 while prices up 83 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5027 and below same could see a test of 4973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5113, a move above could see prices testing 5145.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4985-5121.

* Chana prices dropped as the Centre has pegged chana output at 11.6 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) against 11.1 mln tn last year.

* Rajasthan: Chana to be purchased on MSP from April 1

* Gram will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 5100 per quintal.

*  In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 25.7 Rupees to end at 4986.4 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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