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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -3.19% at 46958 pressured by gains in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields after the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed forward its projections for the interest rate hikes and indicated that policymakers had started discussions about scaling back the bond purchase program amid receding risks from coronavirus. The Fed's projections showed two quarter-point interest rate hikes for 2023, versus none in the March forecasts. Seven officials penciled in a first hike as early as 2022. The central bank raised its projections for inflation and economic growth and took initial steps to wind down the bond purchase program. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said reaching the standard of "substantial further progress" is still "a ways off" and stressed the central bank would provide "advance notice" before making any changes to its asset purchases. Swiss exports of gold to India plunged in May, Swiss customs data showed, as the world's second-biggest bullion consumer grappled with a surge in coronavirus infections. Shipments from Switzerland to China, the biggest gold market, remained strong for a second month, the data showed. Switzerland is the world's largest gold refining centre and transit hub. Demand for gold in India and China plunged when the pandemic began last year, closing jewellery outlets and hurting incomes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.74% to settled at 10837 while prices down -1548 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46384 and below same could see a test of 45811 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47890, a move above could see prices testing 48823.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 45811-48823.

* Gold fell pressured by gains in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields after the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed forward its projections for the interest rate hikes

* The Fed's projections showed two quarter-point interest rate hikes for 2023, versus none in the March forecasts.

* The central bank raised its projections for inflation and economic growth and took initial steps to wind down the bond purchase program.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -5.41% at 67599 after the U.S. Federal Reserve projected a sooner than anticipated interest rate hike. A majority of 11 Fed officials projected at least two quarter-point rate rise for 2023, although officials in their statement pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage a jobs recovery. The announcement spurred a rise in the dollar to scale an over two-month high and a jump in yields, further adding to bullion's woes. The U.S. central bank said it would now consider whether it should taper its asset purchases at every subsequent policy meeting, and downgraded the risk from the coronavirus pandemic given progress in vaccinations. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week for the first time in more than a month, but layoffs are easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work. While other data showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region continuing to grow at a steady pace in June, a measure of future production surged to its highest level in nearly 30 years. Factories in the region that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware also reported stepping up hiring, which bodes well for job growth this month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.89% to settled at 11756 while prices down -3869 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66408 and below same could see a test of 65216 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69896, a move above could see prices testing 72192.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 65216-72192.

* Silver prices slipped after the U.S. Federal Reserve projected a sooner than anticipated interest rate hike.

* A majority of 11 Fed officials projected at least two quarter-point rate rise for 2023

* The announcement spurred a rise in the dollar to scale an over two-month high and a jump in yields, further adding to bullion's woes.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 5242 amid strengthening US dollar after the Fed signaled it might raise interest rates earlier than expected. News that Beijing would issue new rules on the management of price indexes for key commodities and services starting from August 1st also dented sentiment. However downside seen limited as data from the Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the world's biggest consumer dropped sharply last week as refineries boosted operations to their highest since January 2020, signalling continued improvement in demand. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.1 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs rose by 412,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates rose by 1.3 percentage points, in the week. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2 million barrels in the week to 243 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 614,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1 million barrels in the week to 136.29 million barrels, versus expectations for an 186,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed. Also boosting prices, refinery throughput in China, the world's second largest oil consumer, rose 4.4% in May from the same month a year ago to a record high. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -31.66% to settled at 3503 while prices down -35 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5167 and below same could see a test of 5092 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5335, a move above could see prices testing 5428.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5092-5428.

* Crude oil dropped amid strengthening US dollar after the Fed signaled it might raise interest rates earlier than expected.

* Crude stocks fell by 7.4 million barrels in previous week –EIA

* Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by 2.1 million barrels in the last week, EIA said.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 240.3 as the release of a report showing a smaller-than-expected build in storage last week. Traders noted prices were already down on forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks following heatwaves in Texas and California this week. Those heatwaves caused some power prices in the U.S. West to hit multiyear highs and boosted power demand in Texas to a June record as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With warmer weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.1 bcfd this week to 89.6 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 9.7 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and an all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. But with European and Asian gas prices both trading over $10 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.56% to settled at 13521 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 237.3 and below same could see a test of 234.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.3, a move above could see prices testing 244.4.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 234.4-244.4.

* Natural gas remained supported as the release of a report showing a smaller-than-expected build in storage last week.

* However upside seen limited on forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks following heatwaves in Texas and California this week.

* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -3.43% at 697.35 weighed by a firm dollar as the U.S. Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for an interest-rate hike. The dollar rose to its highest level in almost two months versus major peers as the Fed began closing the door on its pandemic-driven monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve stunned investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending yields and the dollar sharply higher. The Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023, citing an improved health situation and dropping a longstanding reference that the crisis was weighing on the economy. The central bank was widely expected to acknowledge the first conversations among its policymakers about when and how quickly to pare back the massive bond-buying program launched in 2020, but most investors think the Fed will refrain from any hints of starting tapering its stimulus in the near future. China’s state planner said it will work with other departments to release state reserves of copper, aluminium and zinc at an appropriate time to boost market supply, lower firms’ cost pressures and guide prices to a return to normal ranges. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.47% to settled at 4934 while prices down -24.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 688.8 and below same could see a test of 680.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 713, a move above could see prices testing 728.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 680.1-728.5.

* Copper prices dropped weighed by a firm dollar as the U.S. Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for an interest-rate hike.

* Fed stunned investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending yields and the dollar sharply higher.

* China state planner says to release metal reserves at an appropriate time

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.03% at 233.55 as China’s State Council announced to release the national reserves of zinc, which weighed on the prices. The Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023 and raised interest rate on excess reserves by 0.05 percentage point. Fed’s decision intensified the market concerns of the shrinking stimulus policies. China said it will release national reserves of some base metals over the near term, as the world's top metals consumer tries to stabilise the price of critical commodities. Chinese factory gate inflation shot to the highest in over 12 years in May, cutting into firms' profit margins and highlighting global price pressures at a time when policymakers are trying to revitalise COVID-hit growth. A gauge of future U.S. economic activity increased for the third consecutive month in May, suggesting the economy continued to recover from the recession caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week for the first time in more than a month, but layoffs are easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.71% to settled at 1625 while prices down -7.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 230.6 and below same could see a test of 227.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239, a move above could see prices testing 244.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 227.7-244.5.

* Zinc dropped as China’s State Council announced to release the national reserves of zinc, which weighed on the prices.

* The Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023

* Fed’s decision intensified the market concerns of the shrinking stimulus policies.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 1279.2 as global markets reacted to the Federal Reserve's signal that rate hikes will come sooner than expected. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase plan unchanged. The bitmap predicts that there will be two interest rate hikes before the end of 2023, and the policy tightening speed is expected to be faster than previously expected. Committee members will begin to discuss the plan to reduce debt purchase. The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast from 2021 to 2023, and both the overnight reverse repurchase instrument interest rate and the excess reserve interest rate were raised by 5 basis points. China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes amid maintenance at top producer Jinchuan Group. Work on Jinchuan's smelter and sulphuric acid plant is set to be completed in mid-June, adding that Jilin Jien Nickel produced 350 tonnes of cathode in May after a long absence and planned to churn out 500 tonnes this month. Overall nickel cathode output in the first five months of 2021 fell 4.4% year on year to 65,000 tonnes, which sees this month's production rising to 13,500 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.24% to settled at 1487 while prices down -9.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1266.9 and below same could see a test of 1254.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1295.1, a move above could see prices testing 1311.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1254.6-1311.

* Nickel dropped as global markets reacted to the Federal Reserve's signal that rate hikes will come sooner than expected.

* The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase plan unchanged.

* China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -3.08% at 188.75 weighed down by top consumer China’s plans to release industrial metals from its national reserves to curb surging commodity prices. Pressure also seen after the U.S. Federal Reserve brought forward its expectations for raising interest rates, sending the dollar higher and sapping demand for metals. The Fed signalled the changes to policy, which include raising interest rates and ending bond buying, may happen sooner than expected. China will issue new rules on the management of price indexes for commodities and services, it said, as the government steps up scrutiny of the country’s commodity markets and battles to contain inflation. China's production of secondary aluminium will almost triple by the end of this decade if all announced recycling projects come to fruition, Rusal said, as the country caps primary smelting capacity and looks to reduce emissions. China's exports of aluminium have likely peaked in the wake of a series of trade protection moves in key markets around the world but the country is now shipping higher value-added products overseas. China, saw exports of unwrought aluminium and products fall for a second straight year in 2020 to 4.86 million tonnes, as a coronavirus-driven knock to demand for Chinese metal exacerbated the impact of a flurry of anti-dumping tariffs imposed since 2017. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 2100 while prices down -6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 186.2 and below same could see a test of 183.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 193.3, a move above could see prices testing 197.8.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 183.6-197.8.

* Aluminium dropped weighed down by China’s plans to release industrial metals from its national reserves to curb surging commodity prices.

* China's production of secondary aluminium will almost triple by the end of this decade if all announced recycling projects come to fruition, Rusal said

* China's exports of aluminium have likely peaked in the wake of a series of trade protection moves in key markets around the world

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 984.3 due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -15.2 Rupees to end at 1070.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -48.15% to settled at 14 while prices up 5.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967.6 and below same could see a test of 950.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 998, a move above could see prices testing 1011.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 950.9-1011.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -15.2 Rupees to end at 1070.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.

* However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.76% at 6546 as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. The Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association (SFPWA), which represents soybean food processing industries in India has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free as prices of domestic soybeans have increased 50% during the past six months. K Sarat Chandra Kumar, President, Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association said, "The beans could be allowed into the country at “zero” duty under tariff rate quota since food specialty soybeans are not grown in the country." China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -86 Rupees to 6971 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.07% to settled at 37775 while prices down -117 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6490 and below same could see a test of 6434 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6642, a move above could see prices testing 6738.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6434-6738.

* Soyabean prices dropped as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth

* SFPWA has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free

* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -86 Rupees to 6971 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -3.98% at 1197.1 as India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1289.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.53% to settled at 37705 while prices down -49.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1175 and below same could see a test of 1154 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1230, a move above could see prices testing 1264.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1154-1264.

* Ref soyoil dropped as India slashed the base import prices of soybean oil for a fortnight

* Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen.

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1289.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 1008.8 as India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs. India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May from last year's low base to the highest level in 4-months as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory. The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, under pressure from labour unions and senators, is considering ways to provide relief to domestic oil refiners from biofuel blending mandates. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, exported 2.64 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, down from a month earlier, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. That compares to 3.23 million tonnes exported in March, while April production of the vegetable oil "was relatively unchanged from March" at nearly 4.1 million tonnes, GAPKI said. The end-April stock of palm oil edged lower to 3.14 million tonnes, from 3.27 million at the end of March. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -13 Rupees to end at 1030 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 3200 while prices down -12.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 996.7 and below same could see a test of 984.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1022.1, a move above could see prices testing 1035.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 984.7-1035.5.

* Crude palm oil dropped as India cuts base import price of palm oil 

* India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory.

* The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -13 Rupees to end at 1030 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 6580 pushed lower by flagging global edible oils markets and overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. However downside seen limited as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. Support also seen tracking recovery in overseas prices lifted by spillover support from soy prices due to concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -44.35 Rupees to end at 6894.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.34% to settled at 55090 while prices down -72 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6548 and below same could see a test of 6517 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6620, a move above could see prices testing 6661.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6517-6661.

* Mustard seed dropped amid flagging global edible oils markets and overseas prices on forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie.

* However downside seen limited as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -44.35 Rupees to end at 6894.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 7472 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7485.85 Rupees dropped -18.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.22% to settled at 11600 while prices down -80 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7374 and below same could see a test of 7278 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7646, a move above could see prices testing 7822.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7278-7822.

* Turmeric dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. 

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7485.85 Rupees dropped -18.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.22% at 13395 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -23.35 Rupees to end at 13700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.17% to settled at 6918 while prices down -165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13335 and below same could see a test of 13275 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13490, a move above could see prices testing 13585.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13275-13585.

* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -23.35 Rupees to end at 13700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 23780 as Cotton acreage could see 5-10 per cent rise this Kharif season, thanks to good prices farmers have got during the current marketing season (October 2020-September 2021). Assured procurement through the Cotton Corporation of India, prospects of good monsoon and groundnut cultivation turning costly are other factors that are likely to aid higher coverage of cotton this year. Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra told BusinessLine that the area under cotton will likely increase mainly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka among the States where the natural fibre is grown. Latest cotton crop estimate for the season 2020-21, the trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the crop size by 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 356 lakh bales. The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana. The CAI estimates show a decrease of one lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat, while cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 3 lakh bales based on the pressing data provided by Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -120 Rupees to end at 24130 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.35% to settled at 3514 while prices down -190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23640 and below same could see a test of 23510 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23910, a move above could see prices testing 24050.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23510-24050.

* Cotton prices dropped as Cotton acreage could see 5-10 per cent rise this Kharif season

* CAI that the area under cotton will likely increase among the States where the natural fibre is grown.

* The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -120 Rupees to end at 24130 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 5034 recovered on short covering after prices dropped ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -36.35 Rupees to end at 4986.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 133100 while prices up 11 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4987 and below same could see a test of 4939 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5066, a move above could see prices testing 5097.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 4939-5097.

* Chana recovered on short covering after prices dropped ahead of sowing reports of pulses.

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -36.35 Rupees to end at 4986.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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