IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 48053 as a stronger dollar and rebounding yields dulled its appeal after data showed an unexpected rise in U.S. retail sales last month on board. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up from one-week lows and the dollar index was bound for a strong weekly gain. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the U.S. central bank would remain accommodative and stuck to the view that recent price spikes were transitory. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he’s still digesting what the recent leap in inflation means for the appropriate timing of interest rate increases, but signaled he still sees liftoff as years away. “If I have an early 2024 liftoff it doesn’t take a lot to move it into late 2023,” Evans told reporters in a conference call, referring to his personal forecast for when a first rate hike would be appropriate. Gold in India was sold at a discount for the first time in nearly a month as a jump in local prices curbed purchases, while buyers in other major Asian hubs were also put off by higher prices. In India, dealers were offering a discount of up to $5 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, compared to last week's premium of $1.5. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.6% to settled at 6921 while prices down -347 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47889 and below same could see a test of 47725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48303, a move above could see prices testing 48553.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47725-48553.
* Gold dipped as a stronger dollar and rebounding yields dulled its appeal after data showed an unexpected rise in U.S. retail sales
* Fed's Evans says need 'patience' to see how inflation plays out
* Gold in India was sold at a discount for the first time in nearly a month as a jump in local prices curbed purchases

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.95% at 68319 as the dollar edged higher after upbeat U.S. retail sales data reaffirmed that the economy accelerated in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said retail sales rebounded 0.6% in June as demand for goods remained strong even as spending shifts to services. U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. U.S. business inventories increased solidly in May, but shortages of goods like motor vehicles are making it harder for retailers to restock warehouses to meet booming demand. Business inventories rose 0.5% after edging up 0.1% in April, the Commerce Department said. As new variants become more pervasive, the COVID-19 curve in the U.S. is rising again after months of decline. Some countries are beginning to tighten restriction restrictions as the fast-spreading delta variant sweeps across the globe. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also reiterated expectations for inflation pressures to fade in a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.6% to settled at 12760 while prices down -1362 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67623 and below same could see a test of 66928 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69472, a move above could see prices testing 70626.

Trading Ideas:

# Silver trading range for the day is 66928-70626.
# Silver prices dropped as the dollar edged higher after upbeat U.S. retail sales data reaffirmed that the economy accelerated in the second quarter.
# The Commerce Department said retail sales rebounded 0.6% in June as demand for goods remained strong even as spending shifts to services.
# U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled flat at 5375 on concerns over demand recovery amid a surge in new COVID-19 cases globally. Some countries are beginning to tighten restriction restrictions as the fast-spreading delta variant sweeps across the globe. OPEC forecast that world oil demand would rise in 2022 to reach a level similar to before the pandemic, led by growth in the United States, China and India. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), and would average more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022. OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd in 2021. OPEC forecast oil demand in China and India would exceed pre-pandemic levels next year. It said the United States would make the biggest contribution to 2022 demand growth, although U.S. oil use would stay just below 2019 levels. World economic growth was expected to slow to 4.1% next year from 5.5% in 2021, still supported by government stimulus and with the outlook "depending primarily on COVID-19-related developments", OPEC said. OPEC+ agreed in April to gradually ease output cuts from May to July. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.17% to settled at 3459 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5292 and below same could see a test of 5210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5423, a move above could see prices testing 5472.

Trading Ideas:

# Crude oil trading range for the day is 5210-5472.
# Crude oil settled flat after pressure seen on concerns over demand recovery amid a surge in new COVID-19 cases globally.
# Oil demand seen at 99.86 mbpd in 2022, similar to 2019
# 2021 oil demand growth forecast kept at 5.95 mln bpd

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 273.6 as soaring global gas prices boost exports. That U.S. price increase came despite forecasts for less hot weather in the U.S. Lower 48 states and lower air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 55 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended July 9. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.629 trillion cubic feet, or 6.7% below the five-year average of 2.818 tcf for this time of year. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.3 bcfd this week to 92.5 bcfd next week and 93.5 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally hotter. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.21% to settled at 13763 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 269.3 and below same could see a test of 265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 276.2, a move above could see prices testing 278.8.

Trading Ideas:

# Natural gas trading range for the day is 265-278.8.
# Natural gas rose as soaring global gas prices boost exports.
# However upside seen limited amid forecasts for less hot weather in the U.S. Lower 48 states and lower air conditioning demand
# The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 55 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended July 9.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 730.9 as support seen after Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 12.3 percent from last Friday. Support also seen after Fed Chair Powell told Congress he saw no need to rush the shift towards tighter post-pandemic monetary policy. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas decreased on smaller arrivals after the increase for five consecutive weeks. Data showed that the stocks fell 4,300 mt from the prior week to 435,500 mt as of Friday July 16. Domestic stocks continued to decline due to the maintenance of domestic smelters in the early stage with the effect of low import inflow and refined copper replacing scrap copper. The import profit window opened this week, and foreign trade demand jumped. US jobless claims at the beginning of the week reached a new low during the pandemic period. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims was in line with the overall economic recovery trend of the US. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's biased remarks played down the market's worries about inflation and boosted the bullish sentiment. U.S. business inventories increased solidly in May, but shortages of goods like motor vehicles are making it harder for retailers to restock warehouses to meet booming demand. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.65% to settled at 3524 while prices up 2.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 728.5 and below same could see a test of 726 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 733.6, a move above could see prices testing 736.2.

Trading Ideas:

# Copper trading range for the day is 726-736.2.
# Copper prices gained as support seen after Copper inventories in SHFE fell 12.3 percent.
# Support also seen after Fed Chair Powell told Congress he saw no need to rush the shift towards tighter post-pandemic monetary policy.
# US jobless claims at the beginning of the week reached a new low during the pandemic period.

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 243.85 as China’s power curtailment expanded to many regions, and US expectation of interest rate hikes intensified. U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 5,900 mt in the week ended July 16 to 114,400 mt. The stocks fell 7,600 mt from Monday June 12. Fed Chairman Powell reaffirmed his easing policy stance. Powell called the current price increase a "unique" phenomenon in history, and said that Fed is closely watching whether its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct. In addition, Powell said Fed may require banks to test climate change risks. St. Louis Fed President urged the shrink of debt purchase reduction after the hawkish statement, saying that the employment and inflation targets have been reached. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.75% to settled at 2556 while prices up 2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 242.4 and below same could see a test of 241 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.7, a move above could see prices testing 245.6.

Trading Ideas:

# Zinc trading range for the day is 241-245.6.
# Zinc prices gained as China’s power curtailment expanded to many regions, and US expectation of interest rate hikes intensified.
# U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months
# Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 5,900 mt to 114,400 mt.

Nickel 

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.75% at 1435 tracking strong gains in stainless steel, while demand for the metal remained solid amid tight supply. Nickel demand for electric vehicle batteries is forecast to climb in the coming years, stainless steel still accounts for the bulk of the metal's consumption. Chinese stainless steel futures surged more than 5% to an all-time high on strong consumption and raw material supply crunch, while concerns over output cut in the steel sector also supported prices. ShFE nickel inventories were last at 7,555 tonnes, down 58% year-to-date and tumbling 74% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, China's nickel cathode output fell 4.4% year-on-year to 79,400 tonnes in January-June, adding output in the second half was expected to reach 88,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the environmental controls in China to restrict high-energy consuming and high-emission projects have resulted in a shortage of ferroalloys such as stainless steelmaking ingredient ferrochrome. Meanwhile, China's nickel cathode output fell 4.4% year-on-year to 79,400 tonnes in January-June, adding output in the second half was expected to reach 88,000 tonnes. Production at Vale’s northeast Ontario operation halted when unionized workers went on strike on June 1 increasing extra charges consumers pay on top of nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange, as stockpiles of the metal dwindle. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.14% to settled at 2911 while prices up 24.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1423.6 and below same could see a test of 1412.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1442, a move above could see prices testing 1449.

Trading Ideas:

# Nickel trading range for the day is 1412.2-1449.
# Nickel prices climbed tracking strong gains in stainless steel, while demand for the metal remained solid amid tight supply.
# Nickel demand for electric vehicle batteries is forecast to climb in the coming year’s consumption.
# ShFE nickel inventories were last at 7,555 tonnes, down 58% year-to-date and tumbling 74% from the same time last year.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 197.7 as the current aluminium consumption shows signs of weakening, while the aluminium ingot inventories are still in the decreasing cycle. Recently, power curtailment policies have been reported again in Yunnan, Henan and other places, which has impacted both the supply and demand sides. U.S. business inventories increased solidly in May, but shortages of goods like motor vehicles are making it harder for retailers to restock warehouses to meet booming demand. Business inventories rose 0.5% after edging up 0.1% in April, the Commerce Department said. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in June as demand for goods remained strong even as spending is shifting back to services, bolstering expectations that economic growth accelerated in the second quarter. Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas fell 26,000 mt on the week to 832,000 mt as of June 24, mainly due to the decline in Wuxi and Hainan. The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption areas fell by 3,000 mt to 120,800 mt from the previous week, a slight decrease of 2%. Stocks in Wuxi and Changzhou rose, and Changzhou saw an increase of 1,400 mt or 11% on the week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.73% to settled at 1921 while prices down -1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.9 and below same could see a test of 196.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.9, a move above could see prices testing 200.2.

Trading Ideas:

# Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.2-200.2.
# Aluminium prices dropped as the current aluminium consumption shows signs of weakening
# U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in June as demand for goods remained strong even as spending is shifting back to services
# Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas fell 26,000 mt on the week to 832,000 mt

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.01% at 956.9 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -7.7 Rupees to end at 1081.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.05% to settled at 1005 while prices down -0.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 937.6 and below same could see a test of 918.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 968.6, a move above could see prices testing 980.3.

Trading Ideas:

# Mentha oil trading range for the day is 918.3-980.3.
# In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -7.7 Rupees to end at 1081.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
# Mentha oil prices settled flat as average yield in Barabanki improved
# Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
# The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.34% at 7728 amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing. Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent. Planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds. Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. China's soybean imports in June hit their third-highest monthly level on record, customs data showed, boosted by a jump in shipments from Brazil. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 42 Rupees to 7544 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.29% to settled at 39590 while prices up 250 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7527 and below same could see a test of 7325 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7854, a move above could see prices testing 7979.

Trading Ideas:

# Soyabean trading range for the day is 7325-7979.
# Soyabean prices gained amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing.
# Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.
# Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent.
# At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  42 Rupees to 7544 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.78% at 1374.4 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1297.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.89% to settled at 33770 while prices up 24.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1354 and below same could see a test of 1334 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1385, a move above could see prices testing 1396.

Trading Ideas:

# Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1334-1396.
# Ref soyoil gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
# China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
# China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
# At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1297.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 1092.2 on higher exports during July 1-15 and expectations of a sluggish rise in production. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-15 rose 3.8% to 682,426 tonnes from June 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Dry weather in the United States and Canada is curbing soybean and canola yields. Investors are also expecting palm oil production in July to be below potential despite the peak production season due to a labour shortage. European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season fell to 80,608 tonnes versus 214,613 tonnes in 2020/21, European Commission data showed. Plantations in Malaysia are entering the seasonal higher production months, but analysts are anticipating a small uptick in July output as a labour shortage continues to hamper harvesting. India's palm oil and soyoil imports plunged by nearly a quarter in June from a month ago, a leading trade body said in a statement, as refiners postponed purchases anticipating a reduction in the import tax. The country's palm oil imports in the month dropped 24% from a month ago to 587,467 tonnes, while soyoil purchases fell by 23% to 206,262 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 8.4 Rupees to end at 1040.2 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.7% to settled at 4137 while prices up 13.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1077.1 and below same could see a test of 1062.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1103.1, a move above could see prices testing 1114.1.

Trading Ideas:

# CPO trading range for the day is 1062.1-1114.1.
# Crude palm oil gained on higher exports during July 1-15 and expectations of a sluggish rise in production.
# Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-15 rose 3.8% to 682,426 tonnes from June 1-15
# Investors are also expecting palm oil production in July to be below potential despite the peak production season due to a labour shortage.
# In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 8.4 Rupees to end at 1040.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 7292 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -15.5 Rupees to end at 7119 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.61% to settled at 49120 while prices up 105 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7175 and below same could see a test of 7057 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7416, a move above could see prices testing 7539.

Trading Ideas:

# Rmseed trading range for the day is 7057-7539.
# Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
# The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
# U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
# In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -15.5 Rupees to end at 7119 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 7490 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7301.9 Rupees gained 1.9 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.81% to settled at 11180 while prices up 102 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7404 and below same could see a test of 7316 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7540, a move above could see prices testing 7588.

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 7316-7588.
# Turmeric prices gained as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingoli due to heavy rains.
# Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
# However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7301.9 Rupees gained 1.9 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 13445 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.85 Rupees to end at 13513.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.3% to settled at while prices up 170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13320 and below same could see a test of 13195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13525, a move above could see prices testing 13605.

Trading Ideas:

# Jeera trading range for the day is 13195-13605.
# Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
# In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.
# Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.85 Rupees to end at 13513.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 25900 as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean over the traditional cash crop, implying a gradual shift in the cropping pattern in the region. Cotton sowing has taken place only on 67% of the expected area of 6.97 lakh hectare in the Aurangabad division and 65% of the expected area (3.58 lakh hectare) in the Latur division. India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales (170 kg each) in the current season to September as domestic demand has picked up. But some estimates are pegging them higher than 100 lakh bales against a record 120-plus lakh bales last season. CCI, which had nearly 207 lakh bales of cotton stocks, could be left with 18 lakh bales by the end of the season, the CMD said, adding that most of the sales were meant for domestic consumption. Some trade experts expect mills’ consumption to top 300 lakh bales, though Southern India Mills Association (SIMA) Secretary-General K Selvaraju said the shutdown due to Covid pandemic could lower the offtake below CCPC projections. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 25240 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.44% to settled at 3301 while prices up 320 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25660 and below same could see a test of 25430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26030, a move above could see prices testing 26170.

Trading Ideas:

# Cotton trading range for the day is 25430-26170.
# Cotton prices gained as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season.
# India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales in the current season as domestic demand has picked up
# CCI said cotton exports would exceed 70 lakh bales and the current shipments were competitive globally.
# In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 25240 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 4847 recovered from lows on short covering after pressure seen as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety. The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne. For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May. However, this same stock limit will be applicable on importers after 45 days from date of customs clearance for stocks imported after May 15. Besides, in order to enhance domestic availability, ban on import of tur, urad and moong was lifted for the period between May 15 and October 31. The government also signed a 5-year agreement with Myanmar for annual import of 2.5 lakh tonne of urad and 1 lakh tonne of tur. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 2.5 Rupees to end at 4800 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.19% to settled at 122630 while prices up 34 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4802 and below same could see a test of 4757 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4875, a move above could see prices testing 4903.

Trading Ideas:

# Chana trading range for the day is 4757-4903.
# Chana recovered from lows after pressure seen as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong
# Wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.
# Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety
# In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 2.5 Rupees to end at 4800 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer