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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 48299 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors that the central bank would continue its accommodative monetary policy despite a recent spike in inflation readings. Powell, in prepared remarks before a congressional hearing, said the U.S. job market “is still a ways off” from the progress the Fed wants to see before reducing its support for the economy, while current high inflation will ease “in coming months.”

Powell’s comments come after data showed U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and U.S. producer prices surging last month. Investors also cheered recent comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials that the central bank would not tighten too early. Further adding to bullion’s support was a weakened dollar on Wednesday which restored gold’s allure to holders of other currencies, and a dip in U.S. treasury yields. St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard says the time is right to reduce the pace of central bank's bond purchases.

"We do want to do it gently and carefully, but I think we're in a very good position to start a taper. I don't need to get going tomorrow, but I think we're in very good shape for this,” Bullard told. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.41% to settled at 8331 while prices up 410 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48029 and below same could see a test of 47760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48468, a move above could see prices testing 48638.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47760-48638.
* Gold jumped after U.S. Fed Chair Powell reassured investors that the central bank would continue its accommodative monetary policy despite a recent spike in inflation readings.
* Powell’s comments come after data showed U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and U.S. producer prices surging last month.
* Fed’s Powell says economy ‘a ways off’ from bond taper

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 69412 as the dollar index extended losses after comments from Fed Chair Powell signalled the central bank is not even close to tightening and that inflation will remain high for some months before moderating. Fed Chair also added that the economic recovery is still a ways off from complete. Investors continue to digest hot inflation, signs the peak of the recovery has passed and worries over an early Fed tapering.

The outlook for U.S. inflation and the speed of the Federal Reserve's future policy tightening are back in focus after overnight data showed U.S. consumer prices last month rose by the most in nearly 13 years. The consumer price index jumped an annual 5.4 percent in June, coming in well above expectations for a 5 percent increase and triggering rate hike speculation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told that the time for tapering is drawing near and a strong economic recovery will allow the central bank to slow its asset purchases by late this year or early in 2022.

The European Central Bank needs to see higher core inflation before changing its outlook and tightening policy, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.64% to settled at 10233 while prices up 331 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68943 and below same could see a test of 68475 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69948, a move above could see prices testing 70485.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68475-70485.
* Silver gained as the dollar index extended losses after comments from Fed Chair Powell signalled the central bank is not even close to tightening.
* Fed Chair also added that the economic recovery is still a ways off from complete.
* Investors continue to digest hot inflation, signs the peak of the recovery has passed and worries over an early Fed tapering.
 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.82% at 5451 after reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had reached a compromise over a global supply deal that will allow the UAE to boost its output. The deal between the two Gulf producers means that members of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, will be able to extend a deal to curb output until the end of 2022. Disagreement between OPEC's defacto leader Saudi Arabia and the UAE led to a collapse in talks last week on boosting production as global demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

Under the compromise with Saudi Arabia, the UAE's baseline production will rise to 3.65 million barrels per day after the current pact expires in April 2022, the source said. Data showed China's crude imports dropped by 3% from January to June compared with a year earlier, the first such contraction since 2013, as import quota shortages, refinery maintenance and rising global prices curbed buying. Lending support to the market, U.S. stockpiles of oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, American Petroleum Institute showed.

Crude inventories declined by 4.1 million barrels for the week ended July 9, the sources said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -43.85% to settled at 3334 while prices down -158 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5350 and below same could see a test of 5250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5585, a move above could see prices testing 5720.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5250-5720.
* Crude oil dropped after reports that Saudi Arabia and UAE had reached a compromise over a global supply deal that will allow the UAE to boost its output.
* The deal between the two Gulf producers means that members of OPEC+, will be able to extend a deal to curb output until the end of 2022.
* Disagreement between OPEC's defacto leader Saudi Arabia and the UAE led to a collapse in talks last week on boosting production

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 272.7 on forecasts for a reprieve from hot temperatures, translating into potentially reduced gas usage for air conditioning. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.7 bcfd this week to 94.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April. With European and Asian gas trading near $12 and $13 per mmBtu, respectively, analysts said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.5 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.7 bcfd in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 14413 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 269 and below same could see a test of 265.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 278.2, a move above could see prices testing 283.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 265.2-283.6.
* Natural gas dipped on forecasts for a reprieve from hot temperatures, translating into potentially reduced gas usage for air conditioning.
* Although losses were capped by lower production estimates
* Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 721.3 after inflationary pressures in the United States sparked worries that the world's biggest economy will tighten its monetary policy sooner than planned. U.S. consumer prices last month increased by the most in 13 years, spurring bets of faster monetary policy tightening than the Federal Reserve officials have so far signaled.

China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said. US CPI rose 5.4% on the year in June, hitting a record high in three decades, driving up the market expectations of Fed’s tightening stimulus policies. US dollar and debts rose simultaneously yesterday, weighing on copper prices.

The U.S. job market "is still a ways off" from the progress the Federal Reserve wants to see before reducing its support for the economy, while current high inflation will ease "in coming months," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at a congressional hearing. "Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating," Powell said, restating the U.S. central bank's faith that current price increases, despite the concerns they are raising about unmoored inflation, are tied to the reopening of the economy and will prove fleeting.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.09% to settled at 4743 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 718.8 and below same could see a test of 716.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 725.6, a move above could see prices testing 729.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 716.1-729.7.
* Copper fell after inflationary pressures in the United States sparked worries that the world's biggest economy will tighten its monetary policy sooner than planned.
* China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said
* U.S. consumer prices last month increased by the most in 13 years

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 239.2 as China's zinc production in June inched higher from the previous month. Refined zinc and zinc alloy production was 447,000 tonnes last month, up 409 tonnes from May and 10.8% higher year-on-year. Production in January-June totalled 2.67 million tonnes, up 7.2% on the year, adding the first-half increase was almost 100,000 tonnes less than expected, partly due to electricity curbs in drought-hit Yunnan. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 1,700 mt from last Friday July 9 to 122,000 mt as of Monday July 12.

The stocks were up 6,200 mt from July 5. Stocks in Shanghai increased slightly as transferred cargoes of inventories in Tianjin arrived at the downstream factories in East China last week, leading to a decline in procurement demand in the downstream market. In south China's Guangdong, market arrivals continued to improve and downstream demand weakened, which led to a sharp rebound in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell slightly as downstream demand remained stable and arrivals of smelters declined. Data showed the biggest jump in U.S. inflation in 13 years fuelled some market expectations that the Federal Reserve could exit pandemic-era stimulus earlier than previously thought.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.88% to settled at 1618 while prices down -0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 238.3 and below same could see a test of 237.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 240.7, a move above could see prices testing 242.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 237.2-242.
* Zinc dropped as China's zinc production in June inched higher from the previous month
* Refined zinc and zinc alloy production was 447,000 tonnes last month, up 409 tonnes from May and 10.8% higher year-on-year.
* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots increased 1,700 mt to 122,000 mt.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 1395.4 as China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said. Data showed the biggest jump in U.S. inflation in 13 years fuelled some market expectations that the Federal Reserve could exit pandemic-era stimulus earlier than previously thought.

China's refined nickel output in June rose 14.8% from the previous month as top producer Jinchuan Group completed maintenance. Output of nickel cathodes totalled 14,257 tonnes, down 5.6% year on year, said Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

In the first half of 2021, total nickel cathode production fell 4.4% year on year at 79,400 tonnes, which sees output in the second half reaching 88,000 tonnes. According to the survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the median one-year inflation forecast in June rose from 4.0% in May to 4.8%, the highest since the forecast was launched in 2013, and the uncertainty of future inflation results increased in the short term.

China’s exports grew at a much faster than expected pace in June as virus outbreaks and port delays were eclipsed by solid global demand thanks to easing lockdown measures and vaccination drives worldwide. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.32% to settled at 2171 while prices down -9.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1388.1 and below same could see a test of 1380.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1405.4, a move above could see prices testing 1415.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1380.7-1415.3.
* Nickel prices dropped as China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said.
* Data showed the biggest jump in U.S. inflation in 13 years fuelled some market expectations that the Federal Reserve could exit pandemic-era stimulus.
* China's refined nickel output in June rose 14.8% from the previous month as top producer Jinchuan Group completed maintenance.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 198.95 as US CPI hit a record high in three decades in June, which strongly drove up the market concern of the Fed’s tightening monetary policies. China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said.

Data showed the biggest jump in U.S. inflation in 13 years fuelled some market expectations that the Federal Reserve could exit pandemic-era stimulus earlier than previously thought. On fundamentals, social inventories of aluminium ingots continued to decrease, but the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened, and aluminium billet stocks continued to pile up.

Domestic aluminium output rose slowly in July, and the support from overall fundamentals on aluminium prices showed a decline. The inflection point of the increase of stocks and the change of long and short position sentiment will continue to be monitored in the later period.

The European Central Bank needs to see higher core inflation before changing its outlook and tightening policy, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said. “Inflation overshoots may be the result of the Governing Council exercising patience in adjusting its policy stance when faced with an improving outlook,” Schnabel said.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.21% to settled at 2431 while prices down -0.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.6 and below same could see a test of 198.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.8, a move above could see prices testing 200.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.1-200.5.
* Aluminium prices dropped as US CPI hit a record high in three decades in June
* China, will take "comprehensive measures" to ease rising commodity prices, Premier Li Keqiang said.
* Social inventories of aluminium ingots continued to decrease, but the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 981.3 on some low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.

The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied.

The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 25.3 Rupees to end at 1081.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.72% to settled at 1006 while prices up 7.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 972.8 and below same could see a test of 964.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 988.8, a move above could see prices testing 996.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 964.4-996.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 25.3 Rupees to end at 1081.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on some low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.57% at 7410 as area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. Record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said.

D N Pathak, executive director, Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the area under cultivation could see an increase by 5-7% subject to the fact it rains in the next five to six days. Several soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh have said that the sowing of the kharif crop has not even begun in 60% area even two months after the beginning of the season due to shortage of certified seeds, provided by the government. In Maharashtra, the government has claimed that there was no shortage of soybean seeds and sowing was in full swing.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 17 Rupees to 7753 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.87% to settled at 35375 while prices down -118 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7333 and below same could see a test of 7256 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7539, a move above could see prices testing 7668.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7256-7668.
* Soyabean prices dropped as area under soybean cultivation likely to increase 5-7% across India
* There has been shortage of certified seeds and they have been selling at high prices, but farmers have prepared their own seeds.
* In Maharashtra, the government has claimed that there was no shortage of soybean seeds and sowing was in full swing.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  17 Rupees to 7753 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 1337.2 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1349.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.84% to settled at 37175 while prices up 7.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1326 and below same could see a test of 1314 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1347, a move above could see prices testing 1356.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1314-1356.
* Ref soyoil gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1349.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 1068.4 as concerns over slow output growth offered support. European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season fell to 80,608 tonnes versus 214,613 tonnes in 2020/21, European Commission data showed.

Plantations in Malaysia are entering the seasonal higher production months, but analysts are anticipating a small uptick in July output as a labour shortage continues to hamper harvesting. India's palm oil and soyoil imports plunged by nearly a quarter in June from a month ago, a leading trade body said in a statement, as refiners postponed purchases anticipating a reduction in the import tax.

The country's palm oil imports in the month dropped 24% from a month ago to 587,467 tonnes, while soyoil purchases fell by 23% to 206,262 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. India's sunflower oil imports in June were steady at 175,702 compared to 175,759 tonnes in May, it added. India buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia while other oils, including soyoil and sunflower oil, are sourced from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. Palm oil imports are likely to jump above 750,000 tonnes in July as buyers are aggressively making purchases.

In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 10.9 Rupees to end at 1073.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.62% to settled at 4940 while prices up 9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1056.7 and below same could see a test of 1045.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1076.4, a move above could see prices testing 1084.5.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1045.1-1084.5.
* Crude palm oil gains as concerns over slow output growth offered support.
* European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season fell to 80,608 tonnes versus 214,613 tonnes in 2020/21
* India's palm oil and soyoil imports plunged by nearly a quarter in June from a month ago
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 10.9 Rupees to end at 1073.4 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 7144 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 114 Rupees to end at 7350.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.43% to settled at 49340 while prices up 23 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7086 and below same could see a test of 7029 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7222, a move above could see prices testing 7301.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7029-7301.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 114 Rupees to end at 7350.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 7338 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month.

At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality.

Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7254.15 Rupees dropped -1.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.04% to settled at 11870 while prices up 26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7280 and below same could see a test of 7220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7398, a move above could see prices testing 7456.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7220-7456.
* Turmeric prices gained as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingoli due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7254.15 Rupees dropped -1.8 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 13190 on short covering after prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.

In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 23.2 Rupees to end at 13428.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.01% to settled at while prices up 30 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13120 and below same could see a test of 13045 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13255, a move above could see prices testing 13315.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13045-13315.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 23.2 Rupees to end at 13428.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 25500 Pink bollworm in 6 Bathinda villages sets off alarm bells among cotton growers The agriculture department is on its toes as it is for the second consecutive year that the pest attack has been reported in the major cash crop of southern Punjab India - Bangladesh to Sign Trade Pact for Exporting 10 Lakh Bales of Cotton Annually The MoU is going to facilitate a Government to Government transaction.

This Memorandum will be signed soon and will be handled by Cotton Corporation of India Limited. The MoU was scheduled to be signed during PM Modi’s visit to Bangladesh this year. But, due to elections in various states, it could not be signed.

In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 25380 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.41% to settled at 4173 while prices up 310 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25300 and below same could see a test of 25090 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25630, a move above could see prices testing 25750.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25090-25750.
* Cotton prices gained as India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales in the current season as domestic demand has picked up
* CCI said cotton exports would exceed 70 lakh bales and the current shipments were competitive globally.
* CAI pegged domestic consumption at 325 lakh bales at its meeting last month, with mills’ demand pegged at 282 lakh bales.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 25380 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 4810 as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.

The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne. For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May.

However, this same stock limit will be applicable on importers after 45 days from date of customs clearance for stocks imported after May 15. Besides, in order to enhance domestic availability, ban on import of tur, urad and moong was lifted for the period between May 15 and October 31. The government also signed a 5-year agreement with Myanmar for annual import of 2.5 lakh tonne of urad and 1 lakh tonne of tur.

In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -9.25 Rupees to end at 4700 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.08% to settled at 123680 while prices down -22 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4766 and below same could see a test of 4723 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4846, a move above could see prices testing 4883.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4723-4883.
* Chana dropped as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers
* Wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.
* Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -9.25 Rupees to end at 4700 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

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