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06-09-2022 08:52 AM | Source: Accord Fintech
Benchmarks likely to make negative start on Thursday
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Indian markets declined for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the policy rate by 50 basis points. Today, Markets are likely to get negative start tracking weakness in the global markets amid higher crude oil prices. Traders will be concerned as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) pegged India’s FY23 economic growth at 6.9 per cent, the lowest by a major bank or institution, saying the country had been adversely affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Besides, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold Rs 2,484.25 crore worth of shares on June 8, as per provisional data available on the NSE. However, some support may come later in the day as chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said India’s economy could expand to $20 trillion in a couple of decades if the gross domestic product doubles every seven years after hitting the $5 trillion mark in five years. Some optimism may come with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that enabling policies and proactive steps taken by the government -including corporate tax cuts and digitisation of the economy -helped the country deal with the unprecedented situation arising due to the pandemic. Traders may take note of Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth’s statement that monetary and fiscal authorities are taking steps to moderate inflation and push growth. There will be some buzz in the agriculture industry stocks as the government raised the minimum support price (MSP) of kharif crops for the 2022-23 crop year (July-June) by around 5-9 per cent. The biggest hikes were reserved for pulses and oilseeds, notably moong, soybean, and sunflower seed, as has been the norm in the past several years. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as ISMA said Sugar exports from India, the world's largest producer and second biggest exporter of the sweetener, touched a record 8.6 million tonne till May of the ongoing 2021-22 marketing year ending September. Also, the government has issued export release orders for 10 lakh tonnes of sugar on pro-rata basis, out of the total applications of 23 lakh tonnes, till June 3. There will be some reaction in real estate stocks with a private report that the real estate sector, which is highly dependent on bank financing for both builders and customers, is worried that rising rates will impact post-pandemic recovery and slow down sales. Rate-sensitive sectors will be under investors' radar as they adjust to a rising rate scenario. Paint stocks will be in focus too after Brent Crude oil hit $124 per barrel, touching its 13-week high.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important 3% level and oil prices jumped. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday amid rising US bond yields and the greenback, as investors worried about the outlook for more rate hikes ahead of a key ECB meeting later in the day. 

 

Back home, Extending their losing streak for the fourth straight day, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Wednesday’s trade in red terrain with frontline gauges ending below their crucial 54,900 (Sensex) and 16,400 (Nifty) levels. Soon after making a flat-to-positive start markets entered into red terrain and extended losses as traders turned cautious with report that the World Bank cut India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5 per cent as rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions taper recovery. This is the second time that the World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for India in the current fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023). In April, it had trimmed the forecast from 8.7 per cent to 8 per cent. However, markets wipe out all of their losses and turned green after Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee has raised Repo Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.90 per cent in its June bi-monthly meeting. Real GDP growth for FY 2022-23 is retained at 7.2%. Adding more relief among traders, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest data has showed that Bank credit grew by 11.04 per cent to Rs 120.27 lakh crore and deposits up by 9.27 per cent to Rs 165.74 lakh crore in the fortnight ended May 20, 2022. But, traders failed to hold gains and ended the day in red as market participants booked profit in later part of the day as India’s central bank said that it would withdraw pandemic-era monetary stimulus and hinted at further rate hikes, in the upcoming months. Moreover, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Ukraine-Russia war has led to globalisation of inflation and is posing new challenges, as the central bank upped the inflation projection to 6.7 per cent for current fiscal year. In April, RBI had projected retail inflation at 5.7 per cent for 2022-23. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 214.85 points or 0.39% to 54,892.49 and the CNX Nifty was down by 60.10 points or 0.37% to 16,356.25.