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Sensex (48440) / Nifty (14325)

The global cues were slightly positive in the morning and as a result, our markets too opened marginally in the green. However, the opening lead just disappeared within a blink of an eye to sneak below the 14500 mark. In fact, as the day progressed, things became worst as we went on to first breach the recent swing low of 14350.10 and then even enter a sub14300 territory for the first time after the ‘Budget day’. The action was not done yet because the real beast ‘Volatility’ was yet to show its existence on the expiry day. At the stroke of the mid-session, market started rebounding sharply, especially the banking space as it had recouped all gains to trade in the green. But again the pendulum swung in favour of the bears as Nifty once again corrected back to morning lows and BANKINIFTY trimmed half of its recovery. Eventually, the last series of the Financial Year ended at two month’s low tad above 14300

After the recent consolidation, the market has finally started feeling some heat in last couple of sessions. Fortunately we remained a bit adamant and did not get carried away by the in between upswings. We continue to remain cautious and the way we are placed on the charts, further correction cannot be ruled out. As far as levels are concerned, the next key support is visible in the zone of 14140 – 14000 as it coincides with the daily ’89 EMA’ and the 78.6% retracement of the up move from 13596.75 to record high of 15431.75. On the upside, 14440 followed by 14535 would be seen as immediate hurdles.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (33006)

After massive sell-off on Wednesday, SGX Nifty was suggesting cheerful start on the monthly expiry day and inline to this BankNifty opened tad above 33400 mark. However, the buying interest was lacking from the word go and hence we saw meaningful selling to sneak almost towards 32400. All of a sudden in the midst, sharp recovery was seen to recoup all the intraday losses and in fact extended the upmove towards 33550. But, due to final hour selling at higher levels BankNifty concluded the day around 33000 mark. Technically speaking, index has precisely rebounded from the 89 EMA in the daily chart which is a positive indication for Bull’s. At the same time, we saw index testing the falling trend line support in the hourly chart and then while recovery managed to conclude above same. Hence, it is very important to see how the banking index behave from hereon as the broader market still looks weak. As far as levels are concerned, 33400-33500 should be acting as immediate hurdles; whereas, around previous day’s lows (32415.25) is the demand zone.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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