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Sensex (52908) / Nifty (15752)

On Friday, markets felt some tremors initially from the major global peers; but it has managed to withstand it successfully and in fact due to smart V-shaped recovery in the latter half, the Nifty managed to reclaim 15700 with some authority.

In our previous intra-week commentary, we had mentioned how 15700 is to be considered as a sacrosanct level. On Friday, we did see this key point getting thrashed in the initial trades and due to massive sell off in few heavyweights (mainly RELIANCE), we saw Nifty hastening towards 15500 at one point. But bulls had other plans this time as they not only defended this level but went on to regain strength in the latter half to confirm a weekly close above 15700. So, for this week, 15700 followed by 15500 is to be seen as immediate as well as strong support zone. On the flipside, the sturdy wall remains around 15900 – 16000 and it’s a daunting task going past this for the bulls. Also one of the observations in our previous weekly commentary was the Quarterly close of Nifty above ‘5-EMA’ i.e. 16000 – 16100 would be crucial for our markets. Although, the quarterly close panned out slightly lower, it would be a pragmatic ploy to give some buffer in such kind of challenging environment.

We continue to remain hopeful and if there is no aberration on the global front, we will not be surprised to see Nifty crossing 15900 – 16000 in this week itself. For this, banking certainly needs to step forward and it has already given some hints in last couple of sessions. Also, the broader market did extremely well towards the fag end of the week, which again is an encouraging sign for the market.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (33539)

On Friday, the Bank Nifty started lower and along with the broader markets witnessed weakness in the initial hour. However, there was respite around the psychological 33000 levels and from there a bounce was seen to completely regain the morning lost ground. Eventually, the bank index ended with gains of 0.34% at 33539.

The way some of the heavyweights tanked on Friday, it seemed that the benchmark would have a terrible session but there was clear index management seen with all the other baskets performing well and kept the market afloat above key support levels. The Bank Nifty led this recovery from the front and last two days it has definitely outperformed. In our previous outlooks, we have been mentioning key support around the 33000 i.e. a key 50% retracement level and we also highlighted the buy crossover of RSI Smoothened. Seeing Friday's performance we remain optimistic and expect the bank index to lead the charge. Traders are henced advised to keep positive bias and use dips to go longs. As far as levels are concerned, immediate support is at 33000 followed by 32650 whereas resistance is at 33745 and 34000 levels.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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