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Based on available data up to Q4FY22, Indian carriers’ share of India international passenger (PAX) market has increased from an average of 38% between FY18- F20 to ~49% in FY22. The increase is significant in many ways. First, it was a longterm strategic objective for India to have a more equal share of the international business opportunity for Indian carriers. Secondly, as significant capacity of Indian airlines moves to the international segment, the demand-supply equation in the domestic segment becomes more balanced and supports stronger fares. IndiGo is targeting to increase its international mix to 40% now from 25% precovid. However, there might be some tactical reasons (higher ATF, geopolitical crisis) that might have forced international airlines to pare down their capacity to and from India in the near term.

Total count of international passengers (carried by Indian carriers) has staged a sharp recovery and remains just a little lower than pre-covid levels. Aug’22 international passengers carried by Indian carriers stood at 1.96mn (refer note on page 2), which is only marginally lower than the average monthly count of 2mn passengers carried between Jan’19-Feb’20.

IndiGo and Go First have surpassed their pre-covid market share while Vistara’s has increased meaningfully in the short term. Based on our international passenger estimates (carried by Indian airlines), IndiGo / Go First market share as of Aug’22 stood at 36% / 6% respectively, which is higher than the ~30% / 4% pre-covid. Vistara, which started its international operations in Aug’19, has been able to achieve 4.7% market share as of Aug’22. Air India / Air India Express market share has remained steady with some downward bias while Spicejet has seen a meaningful decline under the same parameter from an average of 11% pre-covid to 8% as of Aug’22.

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