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Domestic 2W retails in Jun’23 (1.3mn units) were up ~7% YoY though down 12% MoM, post a strong May’23, as culmination of marriage season, decline in e-2W subsidy impacted overall retails. e-2W retails declined to ~45k units in June vs. ~105k units in May as pre-buying inflated numbers last month on account of price hikes driven by partial subsidy removal. PVs continue being steady in the range of 0.28mn-0.3mn units/month for a year now, with continued weakness in entry-level hatchback segment. New launches in the form of Honda Elevate, Hyundai Exter, Maruti Jimny and Maruti Invicto in coming months to push PV retails ahead, we believe. LCVs and M&HCVs remained resilient across Q1FY24 adjusted for seasonality, despite pre- buying in Q4FY23. As against the expected decline of 30-40% from March levels, CV retails are hardly down by 20% Q1 vs. Q4 and we expect that to improve again post August’23. Tractors retails in June was strong at 96k units, up ~38% YoY, with Q1 growth at 18%. 3Ws continued to grow strongly, both for ICE/e-rickshaw versions.

Table 1: Domestic retail registration trends – by segment

* Observations on the basis of weekly retail demand: 1) No major shift in the trajectory of PV retails from CY23 weekly trend of ~65k-75k units; 2) 2W retails, too remained around the 300k unit levels in last 2 weeks of June vs. ~330k units in 2H of May led by decline in volume of e-2Ws; 3) M&HCV retails remained steady in past four week at around 7k units a week, against highs of ~11.3k units in March-April, implying post-pre- buying decline in retails as expected and is expected to remain subdued till July-August; 4) tractor and 3W retails remained strong and better than recent week volumes, with 3Ws/tractors being up 77%/38% YoY, respectively.

Table 2: Domestic retail registration trends in key states

Table 3: Domestic retail registrations – weekly trend

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