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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 59157 pressured by hawkish statements from the US Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged but hinted at further tightening this year, saying in its latest report to Congress that inflation in key parts of the US services industry “remains elevated and has not shown signs of easing.” Markets are currently priced for the Fed to raise rates again by 25 basis points in July and stop afterwards. This week investors await several appearances of Fed officials for more guidance. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled more increases. Buyers picked up more physical gold in most Asian hubs as domestic prices eased, but dealers in India continued to offer discounts while jewellers trimmed their inventory on doubts over demand in coming months. Dealers offered discounts of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices slightly lower than last week's $5 discounts. Jewellers, uncertain of demand in coming months, have been running operations with thin inventories. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.04% to settle at 13723 while prices are down -197 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59058 and below same could see a test of 58959 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59313, a move above could see prices testing 59469.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58959-59469.
* Gold dropped pressured by hawkish statements from the US Federal Reserve.
* Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged but hinted at further tightening this year
* Markets are currently priced for the Fed to raise rates again by 25 basis points in July and stop afterwards.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 72446 as dollar steadied due to uncertainty over the path of U.S. monetary policy. Inflation in key parts of the U.S. service industry "remains elevated and has not shown signs of easing," the Fed said in its latest monetary policy report to Congress. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said that core inflation was not coming down like he expected. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also backed the idea of more rate hikes, citing persistent inflation. The hawkish tone in their comments threw cold water on bets that the Fed will end its interest rate hike campaign this year, after a highly expected 0.25 percentage-point increase next month. Investors also turned their focus to China's June loan prime rate announcement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimonies due this week for clues on the monetary policy path ahead. The People's Bank of China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week. The Bank of England meets on Thursday and the central bank is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point to a 15-year high of 4.75 percent, marking its 13th straight rate rise Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.77% to settle at 12972 while prices are down -242 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72175 and below same could see a test of 71904 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72847, a move above could see prices testing 73248.
Trading Ideas:
# Silver trading range for the day is 71904-73248.
# Silver dropped as dollar steadied over the path of U.S. monetary policy.
# Inflation in key parts of the U.S. service industry "remains elevated and has not shown signs of easing"
# Fed’s Waller said that core inflation was not coming down like he expected.



Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 5865 as global economic uncertainties continued to weigh on the demand outlook. Pressure also seen on concerns about China's economic recovery after a number of major banks cut their 2023 GDP forecasts for the country. Meanwhile, hopes for China stimulus faded after Friday's State Council meeting ended with no concrete policies to boost the economy. India and China, the world's top oil users, bought as much as 80 percent of the oil that Moscow exported in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest Oil Market Report. "Heavily discounted Russian crude oil has found new buyers primarily in Asia. India has increased purchases from almost nothing to close to 2 million barrels per day, while China has raised liftings by 500,000 barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day," the Paris-based energy agency said. In another development, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said it was "realistic" to reach oil prices of around $80 per barrel - according to Russian state news agencies. U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a surprise large build last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories gained more than expected, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.91% to settle at 9731 while prices are down -12 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5818 and below same could see a test of 5770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5926, a move above could see prices testing 5986.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5770-5986.
* Crude oil dropped as global economic uncertainties continued to weigh.
* Pressure also seen as a number of major banks cut their 2023 GDP forecasts for the country
* Hopes for China stimulus faded after State Council meeting ended with no concrete policies to boost the economy.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.53% at 218.5 on forecasts for demand to soar as the weather turns hot in late June, especially in Texas. Power use in Texas is expected to break records next week as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the first heat wave of the 2023 summer season. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal from June 16-22 before turning hotter-than-normal from June 23-July 1. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.2 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week and 101.8 bcfd in two weeks. US utilities added 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, falling short of market expectations of a 95 bcf increase, the EIA said. Furthermore, a projected heatwave from June 23-30 is expected to drive up demand for gas, particularly for power generation used in air conditioning. On the supply side, domestic gas output is declining from the record level of 102.5 bcfd seen in May. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.48% to settle at 17185 while prices are up 3.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 213.1 and below same could see a test of 207.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222, a move above could see prices testing 225.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 207.6-225.4.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts for demand to soar.
* Power use in Texas is expected to break records next week.
* US utilities added 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, falling short of market expectations


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 729.35 as rising production in China and LME inventories weighed. Gains in the previous weeks were largely supported by investor bets on China to roll out further stimulus to revive its COVID-ravaged economy. China, posted a year-on-year increase of 12.9% in refined copper production in May to 1.1 million tons, a record monthly high, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Data showed an increase of LME stockpiles, although that on SHFE continued to decline. China is widely expected to cut key lending benchmarks in the first such easing in 10 months, as authorities seek to shore up a slowing recovery in the world's second-largest economy. Recent economic data showed the retail and factory sectors struggling to sustain the momentum seen in the first quarter, raising concerns China's post-COVID comeback could ground to a halt this year and trigger massive job losses. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered short- and medium-term policy rates last week, signalling it is about to embark on another round of loosening in monetary settings in a push to rev up the recovery. In a poll of 32 market watchers, all participants predicted cuts to both the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and the five-year tenor. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.61% to settle at 4025 while prices are down -4.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 728.1 and below same could see a test of 726.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.9, a move above could see prices testing 734.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 726.7-734.3.
* Copper dropped as rising production in China and LME inventories weighed.
* China, posted a year-on-year increase of 12.9% in refined copper production in May
* Data showed an increase of LME stockpiles, although that on SHFE continued to decline.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 219.25 as Chinese refined zinc output stood at 564,500 mt in May, an increase of 24,500 mt or 4.54% MoM and 9.56% YoY, slightly exceeding expectations. Prices rallied earlier in the week amid concerns over supply following the announcement by Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production at Europe's largest zinc mine in Ireland within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses." Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, while global refined zinc output is expected to increase by a mere 1.9% as power shortages in China restrict production. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) slashed the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% on June 15th, 2023, marking the first reduction since August 2022, after lowering the reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.9% on June 13th, 2023 as policymakers sought to support a recovery in the economy. The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, from a surplus of 22,800 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.64% to settle at 1907 while prices are down -2.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 218.4 and below same could see a test of 217.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.8, a move above could see prices testing 222.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 217.4-222.2.
* Zinc dropped as Chinese refined zinc output rose 4.54% MoM and 9.56% YoY
* Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses."
* S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 203.6 as China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8% from a year earlier but arrivals were lower than the prior month amid weak industrial demand. Water levels in Yunnan Province has increased, and local smelters may enter the stage of resumption of production in the near future. Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a recession in the near term. Hopes have grown that China would unveil more measures to shore up its shaky post-pandemic recovery after new home prices rose at a slower pace in May and property investment slumped at the steepest pace in more than two decades. China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed, as production in most regions remained steady while output growth was capped by extended power curbs in the southwestern Yunnan province. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.42 million metric tons of primary aluminium last month, up 1.1% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.95% to settle at 2765 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203 and below same could see a test of 202.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.8, a move above could see prices testing 205.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.2-205.8.
* Aluminium dropped as China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8%.
* China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier
* Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.98% at 907.2 on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.6% to settle at 539 while prices are down -18.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 901.8 and below same could see a test of 896.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 915.8, a move above could see prices testing 924.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 896.4-924.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped on better sowing prospects.
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.33% at 9214 as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.75% to settle at while prices are up 382 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8928 and below same could see a test of 8640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9398, a move above could see prices testing 9580.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8640-9580.
* Turmeric gains as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 5.02% at 51790 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.11% to settle at while prices are up 2475 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 50360 and below same could see a test of 48930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52660, a move above could see prices testing 53530.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 48930-53530.
* Jeera gained on good export demand
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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