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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 50866 as the dollar rally paused and as investors digest the monetary policy outlook. The recent payrolls report showed the US labour market remains resilient, with payrolls rising by a bigger-than-expected 261K, strengthening the case for the Fed to pursue its tightening plans. However, with the jobless rate rising above forecasts, investors also consider that much more tightening won't probably be necessary. The central bank delivered its fourth straight 75 basis point rate hike and Fed Chair said interest rates would need to go higher than initially anticipated and that it is “premature to discuss pausing”. The Bank of England is trying to bring down inflation without causing too much pain to Britain's economy, Chief Economist Huw Pill said, a day after the BoE hiked borrowing costs sharply and warned of a long recession. Physical gold demand in India eased with jewellers awaiting a dip in domestic prices to stock up for the wedding season following a festival rush, while premiums in China stay elevated due to lack of fresh quotas. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, down from last week's premium of $3.5. In China, premiums of $25-$35 an ounce were charged over international benchmark spot prices. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.07% to settle at 8808 while prices are up 682 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50484 and below same could see a test of 50102 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51074, a move above could see prices testing 51282.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50102-51282.
* Gold prices increased as the dollar rally paused and as investors digest the monetary policy outlook.
* The recent payrolls report showed the US labour market remains resilient, with payrolls rising by a bigger-than-expected 261K
* However, with the jobless rate rising above forecasts, investors also consider that much more tightening won't probably be necessary.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 3.79% at 60538 tracking a rise in other metals, after the US payrolls report raised hoped the Fed will not raise rates that much. The jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose above forecasts, despite a strong payrolls number. The Fed delivered its fourth straight 75 basis point rate hike and Chair Powell said interest rates would need to go higher than initially anticipated and that it is “premature to discuss pausing”. Despite a recent spike, the cost of silver is more than 25% below its March peak when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a rally in precious metals. The European Central Bank is set to tighten monetary policy further in the coming months as inflation has proved worse and more persistent than policymakers had expected. President Lagarde said the bank should keep raising interest rates, even if the probability of a Eurozone recession has increased. Recent data showed headline inflation in the currency bloc accelerated to a fresh record of 10.7% in October, well above the bank's target of 2%, driven by energy and food prices; while the region's GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.2% in the July-September period, the weakest pace in six quarters. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.21% to settle at 15639 while prices are up 2212 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59074 and below same could see a test of 57611 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61370, a move above could see prices testing 62203.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57611-62203.
* Silver jumped tracking a rise in other metals, after the US payrolls report raised hoped the Fed will not raise rates that much.
* Investors dumped the US dollar on expectations the US Federal Reserve will have to eventually pivot despite Powell’s hawkish tone.
* The jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose above forecasts, despite a strong payrolls number.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.93% at 7556 as the dollar eased, with an EU ban on Russian oil looming large and investors weighing the prospects for an easing of China's COVID curbs. China could relax its coronavirus-induced restrictions in the coming months lifted the outlook for demand. On top of that, prospects that global oil markets would remain extremely tight continued to lend optimism to bulls. OPEC+ has recently agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the most since the pandemic, while speculation grows that the oil cartel will further intervene in markets to shore up prices. Deliveries of U.S. crude oil to Asia are set to touch a record 1.8 million barrels per day this month, Kpler shipping data showed, as demand climbed on a widening discount to global oil. Refiners in China, India and South Korea are returning as big U.S. crude oil buyers after several months of scooping up cheap Russian barrels. Asia's renewed buying reflects soaring demand for crude to produce diesel fuel and comes as Europe continued to stock up in the aftermath of Western sanctions on Russian purchases. Overall, U.S. crude exports last week touched a weekly record of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd), boosted by higher shale production. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 73.45% to settle at 7930 while prices are up 215 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7402 and below same could see a test of 7248 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7651, a move above could see prices testing 7746.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7248-7746.
* Crude oil prices rose as the dollar eased, with an EU ban on Russian oil looming large supported prices.
* China could relax its coronavirus-induced restrictions in the coming months lifted the outlook for demand.
* On top of that, prospects that global oil markets would remain extremely tight continued to lend optimism to bulls

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.13% at 517.9 on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand in mid-November than previously expected. Also gained support from a drop in output so far this month and expectations the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas would return to service soon. Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 98.1 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. Traders, however, noted that early-month output figures were usually revised higher later in the month. With the coming of seasonally colder weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.6 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week and 119.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 11.3 bcfd in October. That is still well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due mostly to the ongoing outage at Freeport. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.94% to settle at 4597 while prices are up 15.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 495.3 and below same could see a test of 472.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 531.7, a move above could see prices testing 545.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 472.7-545.5.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand in mid-November than previously expected.
* Also gained support from a drop in output so far this month and expectations the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas would return to service soon
* Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 4.45% at 682.05 as production disruptions in Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, sparked fresh concerns over supply of the metal against thin inventories. This reversed a decline from the previous session where prices of copper, often used as an economic indicator, sagged after the U.S. Federal Reserve failed to provide a clear signal for less-aggressive hikes to interest rates as a global slowdown curbs demand for metals. The huge Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, owned by Chinese miner MMG Ltd, has started to reduce operations due to recent blockades, the mine said in a statement. Las Bambas, whose operations have often been disrupted by protests from neighboring indigenous communities, accounts for 2% of global copper supply. MMG Ltd in August lowered its forecast for annual copper production at Las Bambas to 240,000 tonnes. Total copper production in Chile, the world's biggest producer, fell 4.27% in September to 428,300 tonnes, according to the government body Cochilco. This came against the backdrop of low inventories in the market. The world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne deficit in August, compared with 80,000 tonnes in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in August was 2.16 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.18 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 36.73% to settle at 6369 while prices are up 29.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 664.1 and below same could see a test of 646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 693.6, a move above could see prices testing 705.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 646-705.
* Copper prices rose as production disruptions in Peru, sparked fresh concerns over supply of the metal against thin inventories.
* Total copper production in Chile, fell 4.27% in September to 428,300 tonnes
* The world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne deficit in August, compared with 80,000 tonnes in July.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 4.59% at 265.2 as the market sentiment improved after the investors digested the news of US rate hike. Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 60,000 mt as of November 4, down 18,800 mt from October 31 and down 27,000 mt on a weekly basis. In the Shanghai market, the arrivals were low, but the continuous low zinc prices stimulated the purchasing demand among downstream enterprises while in the meantime traders also needed to fulfil the long-term orders. The supply was barely available in the Guangdong market, while die-casting enterprises received more orders in addition to growing restocking demand of other downstream enterprises. Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before, the company said as it trimmed its full-year output forecast by 6% due to knock-on effects of the Ukraine war. Zinc production of 699,600 tonnes from Glencore's own sources during the first three quarters was lower due to disposals and closures in South America, the closure of Matagami in Canada and worker absences due to COVID-19 at Mount Isa in Australia. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -41.31% to settle at 2275 while prices are up 11.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.7 and below same could see a test of 252.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 268.8, a move above could see prices testing 272.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 252.3-272.5.
* Zinc prices rallied as the market sentiment improved after the investors digested the news of US rate hike.
* The zinc ingot social inventories in China totalled 60,000 mt as of November 4, down 18,800 mt from October 31
* Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.86% at 206.6 as some aluminium plants in Henan were affected by factors such as the advent of the heating season, the low aluminium price and poor profitability, and it is rumoured that they would again cut the production. Following Sichuan and Yunnan, Henan has once again joined the production reduction club. The production reduction of aluminium plants in Henan this time is expected to involve an annual capacity of about 110,000 mt. The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots decreased 41,000 mt from a week ago to 580,000 mt as of November 3 mainly due to fewer arrivals and downstream dip buying. The pandemic in Henan weighed on downstream operating rates. The production and transportation of downstream enterprises will continue to be affected by the pandemic in the short term. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that he was not aware of the media report that said China was preparing a plan to end COVID-19 flight suspensions. According to the real estate data for September, the real estate market continued struggling, which weighed on the downstream demand. The average operating rate across major aluminium processing enterprises declined one percentage point from a week ago to 66.2% as of October 20. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.07% to settle at 5766 while prices are up 5.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.2 and below same could see a test of 199.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.5, a move above could see prices testing 210.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.7-210.3.
* Aluminium gains as some aluminium smelters in Henan province reduced production.
* The production reduction of aluminium plants in Henan this time is expected to involve an annual capacity of about 110,000 mt.
* The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots decreased 41,000 mt from a week ago to 580,000 mt

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 983.1 on low level buyng after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -16.3 Rupees to end at 1125.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.91% to settle at 1079 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 978.7 and below same could see a test of 974.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 985.6, a move above could see prices testing 988.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 974.4-988.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -16.3 Rupees to end at 1125.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled flat as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 7406 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7309.45 Rupees gained 35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.78% to settle at 6450 while prices are up 54 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7290 and below same could see a test of 7176 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7478, a move above could see prices testing 7552.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7176-7552.
* Turmeric rose as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7309.45 Rupees gained 35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.89% at 25060 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 110.65 Rupees to end at 24479.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.49% to settle at 3912 while prices are up 465 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24580 and below same could see a test of 24095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25400, a move above could see prices testing 25735.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24095-25735.
* Jeera prices gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 110.65 Rupees to end at 24479.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 3.42% at 32050 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 140 Rupees to end at 31360 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.16% to settle at 1882 while prices are up 1060 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31160 and below same could see a test of 30260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32560, a move above could see prices testing 33060.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30260-33060.
* Cotton gained cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks.
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 140 Rupees to end at 31360 Rupees.

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