IGI Logo

Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 1.27% at 47595 as support seen amid a weaker dollar and easing Treasury yields propelling it over the key $1,800 psychological level. Gold's uptick also came despite data showing weekly jobless claims dropped to a 13-month low. Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week as the labor market recovery gains steam amid an economic boom, which is being fueled by a rapidly improving public health situation and massive government financial assistance. Inflation will be temporarily distorted this spring as the U.S. economy works through imbalances caused by the pandemic but the pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has argued the labour market is far short of where it needs to be to start talking of tapering asset purchases. The central bank has said it will not raise its benchmark Fed funds rate through 2023. Three Fed officials spoke, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans saying that while he was more optimistic about U.S. growth than he was a few months ago, he expects monetary policy to stay super-easy for some time. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said more progress will be needed in the job market before the Fed's conditions for reducing its extensive support will be met. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.22% to settled at 10286 while prices up 595 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47183 and below same could see a test of 46770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47826, a move above could see prices testing 48056.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46770-48056.
* Gold gains as support seen amid a weaker dollar and easing Treasury yields propelling it over the key $1,800 psychological level.
* Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week as the labor market recovery gains steam amid an economic boom
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell has argued the labour market is far short of where it needs to be to start talking of tapering asset purchases.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.96% at 71681 as Treasury yields retreated while a weaker dollar lent further optimism to the bulls. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Yellen remarks’ created speculation that the Fed may have to scale back its support for the economy sooner than expected to stop the economy overheating. Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally. According to the Silver Institute, global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar. The price for silver is expected to peak at $32 per ounce later this year and its average price to increase 33% over 2020 - Silver Institute. Mine production is also forecast to rise by 8% this year as output recovers after last year's pandemic–related disruptions, which led to a 5.9% decline in global silver supply last year. Demand pick-up is predicated on a recovery in vehicle manufacturing, strong consumer electronics demand, and further gains from the solar sector. World Silver Survey shows expectations for a rise in total silver demand in 2021 of 15% to 1.03 billion ounces, with a 26% increase in physical investment to 252.8 million ounces. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.54% to settled at 10780 while prices up 2062 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70240 and below same could see a test of 68799 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72533, a move above could see prices testing 73385.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68799-73385.
* Silver gained as Treasury yields retreated while a weaker dollar lent further optimism to the bulls
* Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally.
* Global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 4790 pressured by rising COVID-19 infections in India and elsewhere and despite a much sharper than expected fall in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and delivery hub rose by 254,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said.Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 136.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed. U.S. Gulf Coast crude stockpiles last week posted the largest draw since July 2020, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Gulf Coast inventories dropped 10.4 million barrels to 269.6 million barrels, EIA data showed. Gulf Coast refinery utilization rose to 90.2%, highest since March 2020. Crude oil output in the U.S. fell 1.197 mln million barrels per day in February to 9.862 million bpd, according to a monthly reporter from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production fell in top producing states North Dakota and Texas, as well as in the offshore Gulf of Mexico, the report said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.44% to settled at 5159 while prices down -36 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4743 and below same could see a test of 4696 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4856, a move above could see prices testing 4922.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4696-4922.
* Crude oil dropped pressured by rising COVID-19 infections in India and elsewhere and despite a much sharper than expected fall in U.S. crude inventories.
* U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said.
* U.S. Gulf Coast crude stockpiles post largest draw since July 2020 – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 215.6 on a small decline in exports and an increase in output. That small price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities added 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 30. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 in April but well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.2 bcfd this week to 87.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns cooler. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv estimated. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.3 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near-record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to justify the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.41% to settled at 16564 while prices down -2.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 213.5 and below same could see a test of 211.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.4, a move above could see prices testing 221.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 211.5-221.3.
* Natural gas slipped on a small decline in exports and an increase in output.
* That small price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities added 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 30.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 770.65 as investors switched to cyclicals amid hopes of a strong economic recovery, while the Australian dollar fell after China said it would end economic dialogue with Canberra. Global copper smelting rebounded in April from the lowest levels in at least five years in the previous month as a price rally spurred more activity, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed. Investment flows into commodity funds so far this year have hit a record high, bolstered by a recovery in global economic activity and stimulus measures from governments around the world. China’s net imports of refined copper surged by 38% to 4.4 million tonnes last year, breaking all historical records. The country's call on metal from the rest of the world was a million tonnes higher than the previous peak in 2018 and 1.2 million tonnes more than was imported in 2019. The global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. The global world refined copper market showed a 28,000 tonnes surplus in January, compared with a 1,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.02% to settled at 4665 while prices up 9.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 764.9 and below same could see a test of 759 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 774, a move above could see prices testing 777.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 759-777.2.
* Copper gained as investors switched to cyclicals amid hopes of a strong economic recovery
* Global copper smelting rebounded in April from the lowest levels in at least five years in the previous month as a price rally spurred more activity
* China’s net imports of refined copper surged by 38% to 4.4 million tonnes last year, breaking all historical records.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 232.5 after positive economic data including US April private sector employment and Chinese manufacturing PMI that stood at 51.1 in April. However, high zinc prices continued to depress consumption, and the resumption across domestic zinc mines and inflow of imported zinc concentrate further eased tight supply in the domestic market, which may weigh on zinc prices. US core PCE inflation hit its highest in 13 months and ISM manufacturing PMI continued to rise rapidly in April. Market sentiment improved amid positive economic data. Global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. ILZSG forecasts global demand for refined zinc to rise by 4.3% to 13.78 million tonnes in 2021 and global zinc mine production by 5.7% to 12.92 million tonnes. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 65,400 tonnes in February and by a revised 18,300 tonnes in January, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 11,700 tonnes in January. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. Over January and February 2020, the market was oversupplied by 220,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.4% to settled at 1898 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 230.9 and below same could see a test of 229.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 233.8, a move above could see prices testing 235.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 229.2-235.
* Zinc prices remained supported after positive economic data including US April private sector employment and Chinese manufacturing PMI that stood at 51.1 in April.
* However the resumption across domestic zinc mines and inflow of imported zinc concentrate further eased tight supply
* Global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 1327.4 on profit booking after seen supported as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace underpinned a rally in the metals market. Meantime, the commodity growing usage in lithium-ion batteries and the accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles remains a positive backdrop for markets. In early March, nickel prices slumped to a 3-month low and stuck in a tight range until the end of April, after concerns about supply shortages eased following China’s Tsingshan announcement to produce a large amount of nickel matte in Indonesia. Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its nickel ore output rose more than four-fold in the first three months of 2021 compared to the same period a year ago. Antam's nickel ore output stood at 2.64 million wet metric tonnes (WMT) in the first quarter, up from 629,000 WMT in the same period in 2020, the company said in a statement. Antam's nickel ore sales, meanwhile, stood at 1.6 million wet metric tonnes in the first quarter, the company said. US core PCE inflation hit its highest in 13 months and ISM manufacturing PMI continued to rise rapidly in April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.37% to settled at 1545 while prices down -5.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1315.4 and below same could see a test of 1303.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1338.6, a move above could see prices testing 1349.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1303.4-1349.8.
* NiCkel dropped on profit booking after seen supported as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace
* Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its nickel ore output rose more than four-fold in the first three months of 2021
* US core PCE inflation hit its highest in 13 months and ISM manufacturing PMI continued to rise rapidly in April.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.73% at 199.8 as a fall out between China and Australia raised concerns of supply shortages from one of the world's biggest producers. China's state economic planner said it has "indefinitely" suspended all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue, amid strained relations between Beijing and Canberra. China is a top consumer of refined aluminium, while Australia is a major producer of raw materials bauxite and alumina. Prices have rocketed almost 25% this year as commodities and equities markets surged and investors anticipate that a crackdown on polluting smelters in China will constrain supply. Cash aluminium on the LME has flipped to a $5 premium versus the three-month contract from a $35 discount in mid-March, suggesting there is less quickly deliverable metal available. China's commitment to curb carbon emissions sparked worries that supply of the energy-intensive metal will be limited. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets for the first quarter, which could curb aluminum production by around 100,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Chinese officials have warned that they will cap high commodity prices to dampen inflation. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.3% to settled at 1923 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.4 and below same could see a test of 195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.1, a move above could see prices testing 202.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195-202.4.
* Aluminium prices rose as a fall out between China and Australia raised concerns of supply shortages from one of the world's biggest producers.
* China's state economic planner said it has "indefinitely" suspended all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue
* Cash aluminium on the LME has flipped to a $5 premium suggesting there is less quickly deliverable metal available.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 974 on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 20 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 970 and below same could see a test of 966.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 977.9, a move above could see prices testing 981.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 966.1-981.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.88% at 7364 tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 7.2% to $4,100 per contract from $3,825 for May 2021. USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes. Russia plans to reduce its export tax on soybeans to 20%, but it will be no less than $100 per tonne, starting from July 1, the economy ministry said in a statement. The tax will be in place until September 2022, it said. Russia's export tax on soybeans is now set at 30%, with a minimum level of 165 euros ($200) per tonne, until June 30. Prices rallied to all time high in recently tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. The Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity in the soyabean futures. In a letter to the members of SEA of India, Atul Chaturvedi, President of the association, said that SEA was flooded with complaints from its members that the soyabean contract on the commodity exchange was witnessing an unnatural price run due to technical reasons and alleged price rigging by speculators. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 177 Rupees to 7758 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.47% to settled at 43020 while prices up 136 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7295 and below same could see a test of 7225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7450, a move above could see prices testing 7535.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7225-7535.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists.
* USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes.
* Russia plans to reduce export tax on soybeans from July 1
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  177 Rupees to 7758 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 1406.6 amid worries about global edible oils supply. However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1469.25 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 54.89% to settled at 15690 while prices up 18.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1398 and below same could see a test of 1389 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1416, a move above could see prices testing 1425.
Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1389-1425.
* Refsoyoil prices gained amid worries about global edible oils supply.
* However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1469.25 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 1214.7 as tightening global edible oil supplies buoyed agricultural markets. Malaysia's palm oil stockpile in April likely inched lower despite production rising to a six-month high, hampered by robust exports and plummeting imports. Inventories were seen declining 0.27% from the month before to 1.44 million tonnes. Output in the world's second-largest producer likely jumped 8.9% from March to 1.55 million tonnes, marking a second straight month of gain and hitting its highest since October. Exports likely rose 10% to 1.3 million tonnes, while imports were seen down 21.4% to 108,000 tonnes. Coronavirus infections in India, the world's biggest palm oil importer, surged past 20 million on Tuesday, raising demand concerns. Indonesia's palm oil output is expected to jump 7.1% to 55.69 million tonnes in 2021, on a forecast for more conducive weather conditions, a researcher at the state-owned Indonesia Oil Palm Research Institute (IOPRI) said. Indonesia's weather agency has predicted a delayed arrival of the dry season this year with a La Nina weather system seen lasting until May in most parts of the country, with a risk of extreme wet weather in some regions. Crude palm oil output is estimated at 48.4 million tonnes while crude palm kernel oil (CPKO) 7.29 million tonnes this year. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 10.4 Rupees to end at 1248.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.16% to settled at 4933 while prices up 13.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1207.9 and below same could see a test of 1201 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1222.3, a move above could see prices testing 1229.8.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1201-1229.8.
* Crude palm oil prices gained as tightening global edible oil supplies buoyed agricultural markets.
* April stocks seen down 0.27% m/m at 1.44 mln T
* Exports seen up 10% at 1.3 mln T
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 10.4 Rupees to end at 1248.4 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.76% at 7212 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.99% to settled at 56490 while prices up 125 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7092 and below same could see a test of 6973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7298, a move above could see prices testing 7385.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6973-7385.
* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.
* A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes.
* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 7858 as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare's first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.94% to settled at 6235 while prices up 44 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7808 and below same could see a test of 7756 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7904, a move above could see prices testing 7948.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7756-7948.
* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5%
* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.
* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 14065 on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.39% to settled at 3321 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14015 and below same could see a test of 13960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14110, a move above could see prices testing 14150.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13960-14150.
* Jeera prices gained on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices seen pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops
* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year
* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 21850 as China announced additional import quotas for the natural fiber. The Government of India’s top cotton crop assessment body has projected cotton consumption to dip by a little more than 8 per cent owing to the latest Covid-19 wave and the subsequent lockdowns in several States. The Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has reduced cotton consumption for season 2020-21 (October to September period) from 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 303 lakh bales, primarily due to the current lockdowns as the severe second wave of Covid has gripped the entire nation. In the COCPC meeting held on April 30, the estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales at the end of the season on September 30, 2021. The COCPC, which was formed in September 2020 replacing the erstwhile Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), has also curtailed the projected cotton output for the season from the earlier estimated 371 lakh bales to 360 lakh bales. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it had issued an additional 700,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports this year, all of which is for non-state traders and will be subject to a sliding scale tariffs system. In spot market, Cotton gained by 110 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.59% to settled at 8004 while prices up 100 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21760 and below same could see a test of 21660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21940, a move above could see prices testing 22020.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21660-22020.
* Cotton prices gained as China announced additional import quotas for the natural fiber.
* COCPC projects season 2020-21 consumption at 303 lakh bales, down from 330 lakh bales
* The estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 110 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.66% at 5464 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 102.5 Rupees to end at 5450 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.63% to settled at 114440 while prices up 89 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5398 and below same could see a test of 5332 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5511, a move above could see prices testing 5558.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5332-5558.
* Chana gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.
* Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year
* Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 102.5 Rupees to end at 5450 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer