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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 50884 as the dollar index skyrocketed above 113.8, approaching again its highest levels in 20 years after a hotter-than-expected CPI report. US inflation eased less than expected in September to 8.2%, and underlying prices excluding energy and food prices accelerated to a new four-decade high. The dollar continued to benefit from robust haven demand as well, as the US economy remained resilient in the face of slowing global growth and heightened geopolitical tensions. Fed policymakers judged that the Fed needed to move to, and then maintain, a more restrictive policy stance in order to promote maximum employment and price stability, minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed. Also, officials agreed that hiking rates faster now would “prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability". At the same time, it was noted that it would be important to calibrate the pace of further tightening to mitigate the risks and once the policy rate reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for some time. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.45% to settle at 15652 while prices are down -21 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50470 and below same could see a test of 50055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51230, a move above could see prices testing 51575.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50055-51575.
* Gold prices dropped as the dollar index skyrocketed above 113.8, after a hotter-than-expected CPI report.
* The dollar index skyrocketed above 113.8, approaching again its highest levels in 20 years
* US inflation eased less than expected in September to 8.2%



Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 57140 as investors digested the fresh CPI print and its impact on the Federal Reserve’s guidance. Consumer prices in the US rose by 8.2% annually in September, above expectations of 8.1%, while the core reading also surpassed expectations. The figures added to the Fed’s recent rhetoric that borrowing costs must rise quickly to curb unsustainable price growth, even if it hurts growth and employment. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 9,000 to 228,000 in the week ending October 8th, extending the jump from the five-month low hit two weeks prior and surpassing expectations of 225,000. Federal Reserve officials agreed they needed to raise interest rates to a more restrictive level – and then maintain them there for some time – in order to meet their goal of lowering inflation, a readout of last month's policy meeting showed. The minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting showed many U.S. central bank officials "emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action." At the meeting, many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the policy-setting committee's goals. The minutes from the meeting underscored that view. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.69% to settle at 19492 while prices are down -185 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56231 and below same could see a test of 55321 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58014, a move above could see prices testing 58887.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55321-58887.
* Silver dropped as investors digested the fresh CPI print and its impact on the Federal Reserve’s guidance.
* The yield on the 10-year Treasury note soared towards the 4% mark, hovering close to the 14-year peak touched on September 28
* Fed officials worried about ending inflation battle prematurely, minutes show



Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.21% at 7353 as low levels of diesel inventory ahead of winter helped investors shrug off higher-than-expected stocks of crude and gasoline. OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 460,000 and 360,000 barrels per day, respectively, citing high inflation, stalling growth in developed economies, and China’s Covid lockdowns. Saudi Arabia rejected as "not based on facts" statements criticizing the kingdom after an OPEC+ decision last week to cut its oil production target despite U.S. objections, saying it serves the interests of both consumers and producers. President Joe Biden pledged earlier this week that "there will be consequences" for U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ said last week it would cut its oil production target by 2 million barrels per day. A decision by the OPEC+ oil producer group last week to rein in output has driven up prices and could push the global economy into recession, the International Energy Agency said. "The relentless deterioration of the economy and higher prices sparked by an OPEC+ plan to cut supply are slowing world oil demand," the Paris-based agency, which includes the United States and other top consumer countries, said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.86% to settle at 5968 while prices are up 159 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7168 and below same could see a test of 6982 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7454, a move above could see prices testing 7554.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6982-7554.
* Crude oil rose as low levels of diesel inventory ahead of winter helped investors shrug off higher-than-expected stocks of crude
* Crude inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels in the last week to 439.1 million barrels
* OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 460,000 and 360,000 barrels per day, respectively



Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.45% at 552.5 as forecasts for colder weather that should boost heating demand over the next two weeks. US utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended October 7th, above market expectations of a 123 bcf build due to mild weather and an increase in wind power. It compares with an increase of 86 in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 82 bcf. Wind power produced about 9% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% a few weeks earlier, according to federal energy data. Weighing on prices in recent weeks has been near-record gas output and recent reductions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.9 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 92.6 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -33.08% to settle at 6066 while prices are up 18.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 534.2 and below same could see a test of 515.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 563, a move above could see prices testing 573.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 515.8-573.4.
* Natural gas gained as forecasts for colder weather that should boost heating demand over the next two weeks.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 7.
* Wind power produced about 9% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% a few weeks earlier, according to federal energy data.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 658.3 as Yangshan copper premiums surged to a new high amid the shortage of supply. However upside seen limited amid worries about demand weakening at top consumer China amid rising COVID-19 cases and the country's persistently stringent coronavirus restrictions. China will persist with its COVID-19 policies to guard against new coronavirus strains, the official newspaper of the Communist Party warned, crushing hopes of any near-term easing. Meanwhile, Shanghai and other big Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, have ramped up testing for COVID-19 as infections rose, with some local authorities hastily closing schools, entertainment venues and tourist spots. Copper in Chinese spot market, which has been trading at a premium for most of this year, was at a discount of 225 yuan a tonne to ShFE prices on Wednesday, the biggest discount since April 2021. Significant volumes of unwanted Russian-origin copper have been deposited in London Metal Exchange approved warehouses in Germany, the Netherlands and Taiwan since the middle of September, two sources familiar with the matter said. Western countries imposed sanctions on Russian banks and wealthy individuals connected to President Vladimir Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine, in what Moscow calls a "special military operation", but so far there are no restrictions on its metals. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.37% to settle at 4598 while prices are up 6.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 648.4 and below same could see a test of 638.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 663.8, a move above could see prices testing 669.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 638.5-669.3.
* Copper gains as Yangshan copper premiums surged to a new high amid the shortage of supply
* Copper in Chinese spot market, was at a discount of 225 yuan a tonne to ShFE prices, the biggest discount since April 2021.
* Russian copper builds up in LME warehouses



Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 271.1 as signs of an increasingly worse macroeconomic backdrop worldwide continued to hamper demand for industrial inputs. A hotter than expected CPI in the US confirmed expectations that borrowing costs by the Fed will remain restrictive for a prolonged period, increasing recession risks. The dollar index skyrocketed above 113.8 on Thursday, approaching again its highest levels in 20 years on a hotter-than-expected CPI report. US inflation eased less than expected in September to 8.2%, and underlying prices excluding energy and food prices accelerated to a new four-decade high. Meanwhile, fears of additional lockdowns in top metals consumer China emerged as outbreaks in major cities gathered momentum, driving governments to impose large-scale testing until mid-November. Additionally, the IMF downgraded its 2023 growth forecast for the global economy, citing high inflation, tighter financial conditions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic. Consumer prices in the US were up 0.4% month-over-month in September of 2022, the highest reading in three months, and twice the market expectation of 0.2%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the euro-area economy is still growing and that the region’s labor market remains solid, adding that rate increases are the ECB’s most effective tool to combat runaway inflation. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.12% to settle at 2304 while prices are down -0.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267 and below same could see a test of 263 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274, a move above could see prices testing 277.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 263-277.
* Zinc fell as signs of an increasingly worse macroeconomic backdrop worldwide continued to hamper demand for industrial inputs.
* A hotter than expected CPI in the US confirmed expectations that borrowing costs by the Fed will remain restrictive for a prolonged period
* Meanwhile, fears of additional lockdowns in top metals consumer China emerged as outbreaks in major cities gathered momentum



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 208.45 after news reports suggested that the United States could ban imports from Russia, a major producer. The U.S. threat comes as the London Metal Exchange (LME) considers blocking Russian metal from its trading system. Russia produces around 6% of the world's aluminium. When the United States sanctioned its major producer, Rusal, in 2018 and the LME barred its metal, aluminium prices had jumped 30% in just a few days. Tight supply is being offset by weakening demand as strict coronavirus controls hobble growth in China, and rising interest rates push Europe and the United States towards recession. Aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses rose to 351,900 tonnes, the highest since July, but have fallen from almost 2 million tonnes in March last year. In a sign that immediately available supply is tightening, cash aluminium on the LME has flipped from a discount to a $14.50 premium over the three-month contract. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for October to December was set at $99 a tonne, down 33% from the previous quarter, reflecting weak demand and ample inventories. The figure is lower than the $148 per tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fourth consecutive quarterly drop. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.13% to settle at 3864 while prices are up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.2 and below same could see a test of 198 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.8, a move above could see prices testing 217.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198-217.2.
* Aluminium prices rose after news reports suggested that the United States could ban imports from Russia
* Aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses rose to 351,900 tonnes, the highest since July. year.
* In a sign that immediately available supply is tightening, cash aluminium on the LME has flipped from a discount to a $14.50 premium over the three-month contract.



Mentha

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 989.1 as exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. Mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -14.7 Rupees to end at 1126.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.71% to settle at 1293 while prices are up 8.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 982 and below same could see a test of 974.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 993.5, a move above could see prices testing 997.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 974.9-997.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -14.7 Rupees to end at 1126.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained as August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.06% at 7590 as support seen after Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7125.45 Rupees gained 22.75 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.79% to settle at 10130 while prices are up 296 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7304 and below same could see a test of 7020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7780, a move above could see prices testing 7972.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7020-7972.
* Turmeric gains as support seen after Agriculture Minister said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7125.45 Rupees gained 22.75 Rupees.



Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 24285 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -138.85 Rupees to end at 24138.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.97% to settle at 5934 while prices are down -30 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24145 and below same could see a test of 24005 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24500, a move above could see prices testing 24715.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24005-24715.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -138.85 Rupees to end at 24138.05 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.95% at 31930 after USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption. However downside seen limited as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier, with production nearly unchanged at 13.8 million bales. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -360 Rupees to end at 34300 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.06% to settle at 559 while prices are down -970 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31570 and below same could see a test of 31200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32490, a move above could see prices testing 33040.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31200-33040.
* Cotton slipped after USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.
* WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam.
* USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -360 Rupees to end at 34300 Rupees.