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All eyes on US President Joe Biden, Indian markets to digest hefty rise - HDFC Securities 

U.S. stocks ended down slightly on Tuesday, with investors selling tech-related growth shares after U.S. Treasury yields hit a 14- month high. 

The Dow Jones fell 104 points to close at 33067, the S&P 500 Index decreased by 13 points to 3959, while the Nasdaq was down 14 points at 13045. The Nasdaq was on track for its first monthly loss since November following the recent rise in yields. President Joe Biden will unveil more details about the first stage of his infrastructure plan later today, which could be worth as much as $4 trillion.

In economic data, U.S. consumer confidence raced in March to its highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting views that economic growth will accelerate in the coming months, driven by more fiscal stimulus and an improving public health situation. Restrictions on non-essential businesses are being rolled back as more Americans get vaccinated against COVID-19.

The dollar rose to a fresh one-year high versus the yen and traded near multi-month peaks with other rivals on Wednesday as investors bet that massive fiscal stimulus and aggressive vaccinations will help the U.S. lead a global pandemic recovery. Bitcoin traded just below $59,000, trying to close the distance to the record peak at $61,781.83 set earlier this month.

Gold prices fell hard Tuesday, breaking beneath the $1,700 support it has held since mid-March, as the rival dollar reached a key bullish level on rising U.S. bond yields.

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Observation: Markets ended with hefty gains on Tuesday despite rising COVID cases. The Nifty finally gained 337.8 points or 2.33% to close at 14,845.1. Broad market indices like the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices gained less, thereby under performing the Sensex/Nifty. Market breadth was positive on the BSE/NSE.

Sectorally, the top gainers were the BSE IT, Metal, Healthcare and FMCG indices. There were no losers.

Zooming into the 15 minute chart, we can see that the Nifty opened today with an up gap. And buying continued through the day as the index gradually moved higher.

The 15 minute intra day moving averages are also giving positive signals as the 20 period moving average is above the 50 period moving average and the Nifty index is trading above both these MA on the 15 min intra charts. It will be important that the Nifty holds above the recent swing lows of 14710 for the short term uptrend to continue in the very near term.

On the daily chart, the Nifty has bounced back from an upward sloping trend line and closed above the 20 and 50 day SMA. This indicates that the bulls are gaining control after the recent weakness from all time highs.

A reversal of the recent downtrend would be confirmed once the Nifty closes above the recent swing high of 14879. In this scenario, the Nifty could once again be headed towards the life highs of 15432.

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