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SPICES

* Spices traded mixed on NCDEX on Wednesday. Jeera July futures traded in thin ranges and ended rather flat. Dip in arrivals lend support, while tepid demand weighed on. Dhaniya July futures too ticked down. In the meantime, firm demand lifted Turmeric July futures. However, rise in arrivals in the spot market probably kept gains under check.

* Production of spices in India is likely to have risen 3.5% on year to 10.5 million ton in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India.

* Jeera production is seen at 856,505 ton in FY 2020-21, down 6.1% on year according to the Spices Board.

* India exported 299,000 tn of jeera in 2020-21, up 40% on year according to the Spices Board.

* According to a survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders, jeera production in India is likely to be 478520 tons in 2020-21 (Oct-Sep), down by 11 per cent yoy.

* The Spices Board has pegged coriander production at 822,210 tn, up 17.3% on year.

* According to Spices Board, Coriander exports from India were up 21% on year at 57,000 ton.

* Government sees 2020-21 coriander output at 720000 tons compared to 701000 tons a year ago.

* Coriander production in Gujarat is expected to rise 55 per cent to 216680 tonnes in 2020-21 season (Jul-Jun) due to sharp rise in acreage according to the state’s farm department’s second advance estimates.

* Spices Board sees exports of turmeric up 33% to 183000 tonnes in FY 2020-21 on yoy basis.

* Government sees 2020-21 turmeric output at 1.11 million tonnes compared to 1.15 million tons a year ago.

* Spices Board pegs FY21 small cardamom export 6,500 ton, up 251% on year.

* Output of small cardamom is seen rising by 100% on year to 22520 tons according to the Spices Board.

* The Spices Board India has suspended e-auctions of small cardamom in Tamil Nadu's Bodinayakanur and Kerala's Puttady from Monday, it said in a circular. Further decisions will be taken as per the directions of the respective district administrations, the board said in a circular.

OILSEED

* All commodities in the oil seed complex settled lower yesterday. July RM seed prices shed previous day’s gains on back of lower demand for mustard in the spot markets. July Soybean futures witnessed profit booking after recent rallies on expectation of higher acreage due to good rainfall in many key growing areas. CPO MCX June futures and Refined Soy oil July futures on NCDEX fell on back of higher imports along with lower demand in the spot markets.

* India's oilmeal exports declined 8% on year to 228,242 tn in May, as per data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India today. For Apr-May, overall exports of oilmeal rose 52% on year to 531,700 tn.In May, soymeal exports rose 12.5% on year to 52,434 tn, and ricebran meal jumped 89.2% on year to 58,106 tn. Exports of soymeal rose marginally due to higher shipment to the US.

* India's vegetable oil imports jumped 68% on year to nearly 1.3 mln tn in May, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. During Nov-May, the country imported nearly 7.7 mln tn of vegetable oil, up 9% from the year-ago period. As of Jun 1, India's ports had 570,000 tn of edible oil, and 1.4 mln tn was in the pipeline. The stock has increased by 151,000 tn on month to 1.96 mln as of Jun 1.

* The government has banned the blending of mustard oil with multi-source edible vegetable oils from Tuesday and prohibited its sales from Jul 1, according to a notification by the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India.

* The Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade has urged the government to prohibit import of edible oils from Nepal and Bangladesh at zero duty as it hurts domestic manufacturers.

* The government will distribute about 816,000 soybean seed mini-kits free of cost to farmers to ramp up oilseed output in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) kharif season, an official release said.

* India's soymeal exports rose to 80,000 tn in May from 54,000 tn a year ago, The Soybean Processors Association of India data showed. Overseas shipments of the oilmeal rose significantly due to strong demand from France and Germany, traders said. During Oct-May, exports jumped over threefold to 1.76 mln tn from 512,000 tn a year ago.

* Crushing of mustard seed by oil millers rose nearly 13% on year to 900,000 tn in May, data from Marudhar Trading Agency showed. Mills had crushed 800,000 tn of the oilseed during the same period last year. Huge demand for mustard oil in retail markets has prompted oil millers to ramp up crushing, traders said.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard output is seen rising to 22.6% on year to 8.95 mln tn, according to a joint survey by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association.

* The US Department of Agriculture has marginally raised its estimate for global oilseed production in 2021-22 to 632.9 mln tn, from 632.2 mln tn projected in May. The upward revision is due to higher mustard production in the European Union. The mustard crop in this region is seen 600,000 tn higher to 17.2 mln tn as cool spring weather coupled with timely May rainfall boosted yield prospects, particularly for France, Germany, and Poland, the department said. Australian mustard crop is also revised up 200,000 tn to 3.7 mln tn on higher area harvested and yield. The rise in global oilseed crop is, however, limited due to smaller cottonseed crop, the agency said. It scaled down the global soybean output a tad lower to 385.5 mln tn. World soybean ending stocks are pegged higher at nearly 92.6 mln tn driven by higher beginning stocks for the US and Brazil. Last month's soybean ending stock was estimated at 91.1 mln tn. The agency maintained its estimate for soybean output in the US at nearly 119.9 mln tn for 2021-22. The 2021-22 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month, the US agency said. In May, the agency projected the US season-average soybean price for 2021-22 at $13.85 per bushel, the agency said. The US is among the leading growers of soybean. The agency has also projected soyoil prices at 65 cents per pound.

* India is likely to produce around 10 mln tn of mustard in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), up 35% from a year ago, due to higher acreage and favourable weather conditions, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Farmers in the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha, up 10.6% on year, in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season so far, data from the farm ministry.

* Indian government slashed import duty of crude palm oil. The government cut import duty on crude palm oil by 10% to 27.5%, in the last week, to cool off soaring edible oil prices in domestic markets.

* India is likely to grow a record 10 mln tn mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), mainly due to the likelihood of a sharp rise in acreage, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The government has targeted an alltime high crop of 12.5 mln tn for this rabi season. The government has fixed the minimum support price at 4,650 rupees per 100 kg for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) marketing season against 4,425 rupees per 100 kg the previous year.

* According to the first advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.7 mln tn compared with 1.8 mln tn in the fourth advance estimates for 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry. While, according to traders, crop is seen at 1.5-1.6 mln tn. Farmers have sown castor seed across 792,000 ha in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), down 16% from a year ago.

* India's exports of castor oil rose 18.7% on year to nearly 650,000 tn in 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), said B.V. Mehta, executive president, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Exports were at 547,646 tn in 2019-20.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output rose 2.8% on month to nearly 1.6 mln tn in May, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Total palm oil stocks in the country increased 1.5% on month to around 1.6 mln tn. The export of palm oil in May fell 6% on month to nearly 1.3 mln tn. On the other hand, the export of biodiesel plunged 47.8% on month to just 14,643 tn.

* Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia expects palm oil exports during June 1-20 to have fallen 1.8% on month to 937,135 tn.

Cotton

* The Cotton Association of India has scaled up its export estimate for 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) to 7.2 mln bales (1 bale = 17 kg) from 6.5 mln bales projected a month ago. In the current marketing year, India shipped around 5.8 mln bales till May. The association has also raised its domestic consumption view to 32.5 mln bales, against 31.5 mln bales estimated the previous month. It has lowered its ending stock estimate to 9.4 mln bales, compared with 11.6 mln bales projected a month ago. Production and import estimates for the year is seen at 35.6 mln bales and 1.0 mln bales, respectively. Production in the northern region, which includes Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is seen at 6.6 mln bales. In the central zone, which includes Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the output is estimated at 19.4 mln bales. In the southern region, production is pegged at 9.2 mln bales. Of the total crop, around 34.0 mln bales had arrived in markets across India till May.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global production of cotton in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) to 118.9 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg), compared with 119.4 mln bales projected a month ago. The downward revision in global production estimates is mainly due to a likely lower crop in China. Recent surveys indicate lower-than-expected area under cotton in southern Xinjiang. Global cotton consumption is seen at 122.5 mln bales in 2021-22, compared with 121.5 mln bales in the previous month. Consumption is seen higher due to a likely rise in demand from China, Bangladesh, and Turkey. Global exports are estimated at 46.6 mln bales compared with 45.5 mln bales a month ago. The agency has lowered its 2021-22 global ending stocks estimate to 89.3 mln bales, against 90.9 mln bales projected a month ago. The output in Indiais maintained at 29.0 mln bales in 2021-22. Consumption for India has been marginally lowered to 25.0 mln bales compared with 25.5 mln bales estimated in May. In the US, production is seen at 17.0 mln bales in 2021-22. The average price for the US upland cotton for 2021-22 is seen steady at 75 cents a pound.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee, in its May report, has scaled up its global ending stocks estimate for 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 22.1 mln tn from 20.9 mln tn projected in April. The revised estimate for ending stock is mainly due to bigger crop in India and China. India will lead global production at an estimated 6.3 mln tn for 2020-21. China is expected to be the second largest producer with 5.9 mln tn. Global production for the ongoing season is estimated at 24.6 mln tn, against 24.1 mln tn projected a month ago. The committee has marginally raised its global consumption to 24.97 mln tn from 24.54 mln tn a month ago due to rise in demand from China, India and Turkey. Global exports are seen higher at 9.8 ln tn, compared with 9.5 mln tn a month ago. The committee has revised upwards its price forecast for Cotlook A index, a global benchmark for prices of raw cotton, by 1% from the previous month to 80 cents per pound.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has scaled up its estimate for global output in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) by 145,000 tn to 24.2 mln tn. The estimate in the April report has been revised upward largely because production in China, Brazil and Australia is expected to be higher. For the current season, the agency has maintained its crop estimate for at 6.1 mln tn. Production in the US is seen at 3.2 mln tn. Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is seen at 24.8 mln tn, against 24.9 mln tn projected the previous month. Consumption is seen marginally lower due to a fall in demand from Indonesia. Ending stocks of the fibre for 2020-21 are seen at 624,000 tn, against 814,000 tn projected last month.

* India's cotton exports are likely to be 20% higher at 1.02 mln tn in 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) backed by its competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, ratings agency CARE Ratings said. Higher exports along with a recovery in domestic cotton demand will help reduce the surplus availability of cotton in the country despite higher supply, the rating agency said in a report.

* The government of Mali will provide more funding to cotton farmers to increase the crop and boost exports. The country's government will provide 8,000 cotton farmers with 20 billion CFA francs ($37 million) in total to reverse the country's poor cotton harvests in 2020-2021 season, and hit the new target set for the 2021-2022 season, the West African nation's Minister of Economy and Finance Alousseni Sanou said.

* Production of cotton in Haryana is expected to decline by 27% to 1.8 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season due to yield loss caused by Parawilt, a senior state government official told Informist. Parawilt is a disease affecting cotton plants, which causes sudden drooping of leaves when irrigation is provided after a long dry spell.

* In the Union Budget for 2021-22 (Apr-Mar), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed customs duty of 5% on cotton and 10% on cotton waste. She also proposed an Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess of 5% on cotton, taking the overall customs duty to 10%. Customs duty on raw silk and silk yarn or yarn spun from silk waste has been increased to 15% from 10% earlier.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. Farmers have sown cotton across 13.04 mln ha in the 2020-21 (JulJun) season, up by 2.1% from a year ago, as of 25th Sept., farm ministry.

* India's cotton output in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing year is seen at 38.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% on year, according to traders' pegs 2020-21 cotton crop at 37.1 mln bales vs 35.5 mln bales.

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln. The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees. AGRIDEX NCDEX Inability to move above the trend line resistance of 1430 could see downside moves targeting 1400 levels. KAPAS NCDEX APR22 While prices stays below 1300 could see downside correction towards targeting 1280/1270 levels. COTTON MCX JUNE Upside momentum is more likely to continue if prices breaks above 24270 levels. COCUDAKL NCDEX JUL Inability to move above 3025 could continue downside corrective moves targeting 2860/2825 levels. TECHNICAL VIEW Agri Picks, 24.06.2021 OTHERS Market Buzz

OTHERS

* Chana July futures on NCDEX came under profit booking on Wednesday.

* The government has procured 545980 tons of chana harvested in 2020-21 rabi season.

* Govt. pegs 2020-21 chana output to be at 12.6 million tonnes compared to 11.1million tonnes a year ago.

* Govt. aims to increase chana procurement by nearly 55 per cent to 3.25 million tonnes in the marketing year 2021-22 beginning April, under the price support scheme.

* The government has approved procurement of 14350 tons of chana Bihar during 2021- 22 rabi marketing season.

* The farm ministry has approved the procurement of 61000 tonnes of chana from Maharashtra in 2021-21 under the price support scheme according to the NAFED.

* India’s guar gum exports improved in the month of March 2021 by over 12% to 20,127 tonnes compared to 17,915 tonnes during February 2021 at an average FoB of US $ 1659 per tonne in the month of March compared to US $ 1993 per tonne in the month of February 2021. Further, the gum shipments were up 46% in March 2021 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 6,235 tonnes is bought US, Germany (3,075 tonnes) and China (2,688 tonnes).

* India’s guar split exports rose in the month of March 2021 by 12.5% to 3,334 tonnes compared to 2,964 tonnes during February 2021 at an average FoB of US $ 1,025 per tonne in the month of February compared to US $ 1,013 per tonne in the month of February 2021. However, the guar split shipments were up 8% in March 2021 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 2,521 tonnes is bought China, US (680 tonnes) and Netherlands and Switzerland (60 tonnes each).

* Rubber June futures on MCX bounced up from the one and a half month lows on Wednesday.

* The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) expects global natural rubber consumption to increase by 7% in 2021, after declining 8.1% in 2020 because of the pandemic, secretary general Salvatore Pinizzotto said.

* Global natural rubber production in April declined to 903000 tonnes from 910,000 ton March, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said. Demand for the commodity was seen at 1.12 million tonnes compared to 1.23 million tonnes a month ago .

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