Agri Commodity Technical Report 06 June 2023 - Geojit Financial Services
SPICES
• NCDEX Coriander futures declined to two year low on Monday on tepid demand and rise in arrivals, while turmeric futures steadied. Jeera futures on the bourse, in the meantime, gained on lower supplies and firm demand.
• According to Gujarat government's third advance estimates released, jeera production is estimated to fall 9.3% on year to 200,780 tn. Gujarat is the second-largest producer of the commodity.
• Coriander production is seen to rise 81% on year to 376,090 tn in Gujarat, according to the state government's third advance estimates.
• India's export of spices during Apr-Jan declined 13% on year to 1.1 mln tn, according to data from the Spices Board India. In terms of value, the exports rose by 1.5% to 249.7 bln rupees. Export fell for chilli, small cardamom, jeera, coriander, and ginger. However, garlic exports rose sharply by 165% on year at 47,329 tn. While exports of jeera during Apr-Jan declined 18% on year to 154,782.6 tn, turmeric exports rose 8% on year to 136,492.6 tn. India exported 36,823.4 tn of coriander, which is down 11% on year, the data showed. Exports of small cardamom declined 23% on year to 6,447.8 tn. While large cardamom exports rose 8% on year to 1,541.8 tn. Exports of chilli in Apr-Jan were down 19% on year at 378,209.3 tn, while exports of other spices including as cinnamon, saffron, asafoetida rose 18% on year to 68,657 tn, according to the data.
• Spices Board said it had rescheduled the 14th edition of World Spice Congress from February to Sep 15-17. The congress is scheduled to be held at the CIDCO Exhibition and Convention Centre in Navi Mumbai. The rescheduling is due to constraints in international travel owing to the COVID-19 situation in some of the major spice importing countries. "The venue for the event will remain the same and all existing registrations of delegates and exhibition stalls will be carried forward to the rescheduled event," the board said.
COTTON
• The Cotton Association of India has scaled down its estimate for cotton production in India in the 2022-23 (OctSep) season by 465,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) to 29.84 mln bales, it said in a release. The total supply of cotton between October 2022 and April 2023 is now estimated at 26.30 mln bales – arrivals of 22.41 mln bales, imports of 700,000 bales, and an opening stock of 3.19 mln bales at the beginning of the season. For Oct-Apr, cotton consumption has been estimated at 17.9 mln bales, while export shipments till Apr 30 are estimated at 1.2 mln bales. According to the association, stocks at the end of April are estimated at 7.20 mln bales – 5.20 mln bales with textile mills and 2.0 mln bales with Cotton Corp of India, Maharashtra Federation, and multinational corporations, traders, and ginners. This includes the cotton sold but not delivered. Total supply of cotton during the 2022-23 season has been estimated at 35 mln bales, unchanged from the association's last estimate.
• The US Department of Agriculture has projected global cotton production in 2023-24 (Aug-Jul) to fall 0.6% to 115.69 mln bales on account of lower production in China, Mexico, the European Union and Turkey. The global cotton output was 116.36 mln bales in 2022-23. Total cotton supplies are, however, seen 2.9% higher at 208.30 mln bales from 202.51 mln bales due to higher opening stocks. Cotton production in India in 2023-24 is seen higher by 1 mln bales at 25.5 mln bales, while in Brazil production is seen higher by 250,000 bales at 13.25 mln bales. Cotton production in Pakistan is seen higher by 1.4 mln bales at 5.30 mln bales. The agency has projected global cotton consumption in 2023-24 to rise 6.0% to 116.23 mln bales from 109.63 mln bales. Consumption in India is estimated to be higher by 1.5 mln bales at 24.50 mln bales, while in Pakistan it is projected to rise 1 mln bales to 9.6 mln bales from 8.6 mln bales. The USDA has projected cotton exports from India to rise by 1 mln bales to 2.4 mln bales in 2023-24. Global cotton exports are seen higher with world trade rebounding and the shipping pace strengthening, the report said. Cotton ending stocks in India is seen at 10.55 mln bales in 2023-24 from 10.45 mln bales, the report said.
OTHERS
• According to the third advance estimate released by the farm ministry, pulses output is seen at 27.5 mln tn in the ongoing crop year, as against 27.3 mln tn in the previous year. Chana output for 2022-23 is pegged at 13.5 mln tn largely unchanged from 2021-22. Tur output is seen at 3.4 mln tn compared with 4.2 mln tn in the final estimate of last year.
• The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has purchased 2.04million ton of chana under the price support scheme in its ongoing rabi procurement operations, the agency said in a tweet. The agency said 903,664 farmers benefitted from the procurement and a sum of 109.06 bln rupees was paid to them. The government has set the minimum support price for chana at 5,335 rupees per 100 kg for the 2023-24 rabi marketing season. In this round of procurement, the agency purchased chana in Telangana, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, it said. Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest procurement at 727,749.3 tn followed by Maharashtra and Gujarat at 677,350.3 ton and 318,376.6 ton respectively.
• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has scaled down its estimate for chickpea prices in Canada for 2022-23 (Aug-Jul) to $1,035 per tn from $1,165 per tn projected in February. It has also lowered its estimates for mustard seed prices to $2,365 per tn from $2,525 per tn projected last month. In its March report, the farm agency said the average price of mustard seed is forecast to fall, but remain historically high due to expectations of increased carry-out stocks in Canada. The estimate for overall supply of chickpeas in Canada is unchanged from last month at 328,000 tn. The agency has also kept exports of chickpea steady at 200,000 tn. Similarly, estimates for overall supply and exports of mustard seed are unchanged at 177,000 tn and 115,000 tn, respectively. The agency left its price estimates for lentils, dry beans and dry peas unchanged from last month at $800 per tn, $1,165 per tn and $460 per tn, respectively. Canada is one of the biggest exporters of lentils to India. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is responsible for policies governing production, processing and marketing of farm, food and agribased products in Canada.
• According to 2nd Advance Estimates released by farm ministry, pulses output is seen at 27.8 mln tn in the ongoing crop year, as against 27.3 mln tn in the previous year. Chana output for 2022-23 is pegged at 13.6 mln tn compared with 13.5 mln tn in 2021-22. Tur output is seen at 3.7 mln tn compared to 4.2 mln tn in the final estimate of last year.
• India’s guar split exports went down in the month of Mar ’2023 by 32% to 3,010 tonnes compared to 4,420 tonnes in Feb ‘23 at an average FoB of US $1,646 per tonne in the month of Mar ’23 compared to US $1,843 per tonne previous month. The guar split shipments went down by 25% in Mar ’23 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, 2,560 tonnes bought by China, US 200 tonnes, Netherlands 180 tonnes, Switzerland 60 tonnes and Italy 10 tonnes. India’s guar gum exports increased in the month of March 2023 by 2.7% to 19,001 tonnes compared to 18,488 tonnes during February at an average FoB of US $1,554 per tonne in the month of Mar ’2023 as compared to US $1,558 per tonne previous month. Further, the gum shipments went up by 8% in Mar ’2023 as compared to the corresponding year. Out of the total exported quantity, around 3,051 tonnes bought by USA, Russia bought 2,980 tonnes, China 2,069, Germany 1,888 tonnes, Canada 1,181 tonnes, Australia 828 tonnes and Italy 816 tonnes.
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