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Sensex (53019) / Nifty (15780)

We had a flat start to the Monthly expiry session taking mixed global cues into consideration. In the initial hour, market surged a bit to challenge the 15900 mark. However, once again bulls became nervous at higher levels, which resulted in some profit booking to wipe off gains. During the remaining part of the session, the Nifty consolidated in a small range to eventually conclude the June expiry convincingly above 15700.

During this week, we witnessed lethargic moves in key indices as we can see the trading range for Nifty shrinking to merely 180 – 200 points. All this while, despite multiple attempts, bulls have successfully managed to defend the key support of 15700. On the other hand, 15900 – 16000 remains a sturdy wall. Now as we are stepping into a new series, 15700 – 16000 would be seen as immediate range and a decisive breakout on either side should dictate the near term direction.

We reckon, we are likely to see market coming out of this slumber phase soon (hopeful of happening it upwards) and hence, traders should keep a close tab on this development. Until then it’s better to focus on individual themes and it’s important to identify apt candidates within the same in order to find better trading opportunities.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (33425)

Yesterday, Bank Nifty started on a flat to negative note however right from the word go a strong upsurge was seen pushing the index well above 33600 levels. It seemed that bulls will have a smooth ride on the monthly expiry however there was no follow-up buying and after a minor intraday dip, the bank index remained within a range for the remaining part of the day. Eventually the bank nifty ended with gains of around half a percent at 33425.

After two sessions of underperformance, the bank nifty finally showed performance in yesterday's session. On the daily chart, prices have now defended the key retracement level of 50% (33290 – 34147 rally), and even though the prices didn't close above the higher end; the way it has closed above the previous session high augurs well for the bulls. In addition, the traction post the recent RSI Smoothened buy crossover is still missing and hence we maintain our positive bias at least as long the yesterday's low 33180 is defended. On the flip side, 33700 - 34000 is the immediate resistance. Yesterday, many private banks showed promising signs and traders should focus on such counters that are likely to give strong trending moves in the near term.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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