81.50 can be lowest point as dollar index trend has been bullish: Jateen Trivedi
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Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, has said that 81.50 can be the lowest point for rupee as the dollar index trend has been bullish.
In the last three months, the dollar has been moving higher from $102 to $110 and the rupee falling from 78.00 to 80.00. If it continues the bullish momentum, the dollar can touch zones of $115 and the rupee at the same time can be near 81.50-82.00.
Excerpts from the interview:
Q. What are you views on RBI Governor saying that rupee has held its own and moved in an orderly manner despite sharp depreciation in other currencies?
A: The main cause for rupee's fall has been the strong performance of dollar against the whole basket of currencies which have dropped 8-13 per cent with respect to EUR, JPY, GBP, hence rupee has also been feeling the heat as dollar index has scaled to 20-year high as the base currency touched $110.
Domestically, India's performance has been good when it comes to consumption of make and buy in India products. It is the exports which have been hampered with IT and Pharma feeling the heat as demand has slumped after unlocking, hence imports have continued and exports have seen a down trend. Domestically, rupee has had good support.
Q. We have seen that RBI has intervened in the forex market to defend rupee. How do you see the intervention going forward?
A: Intervention has been seen near the 80.00-mark as RBI has tried to keep rupee not going below 80.00, which also has been supported by crude prices which have fallen majorly from $120 to $85 in Nymex in a span of three months. Hence the fall in rupee has been slow and RBI intervention might get slow once prices start to settle above 79.50. Aggressive intervention might only be a case if rupee falls beyond 80.00 as RBI would not want to draw down on forex reserves.
Q. Does RBI defending rupee to such an extent make any sense? What are your thoughts?
A: It made sense in an environment where crude prices were also on a boil, but since the prices of Crude have come down, it will be seen that RBI will be participating less in rupee buying/dollar selling. The central bank has been clear in its measures that RBI is ok with slow-paced fall in currency rather quick rise in rupee by selling major forex reserves.
Q. What would be the rupee's lowest point against the dollar in the next three months?
A: 81.50 can be the lowest point as the dollar index trend has been bullish. In the last three months, the dollar has been moving higher from $102 to $110 and the rupee falling from 78.00 to 80.00. If it continues the bullish momentum, the dollar can touch zones of $115 and the rupee at the same time can be near 81.50-82.00.
Q. What are the domestic factors that you think will put pressure on the rupee in the coming months?
A: DIIs have been buyers into capital markets which has helped the rupee. If DIIs start booking their profits, then we can see pressure on rupee. Along with that, the southern part of the country has seen major floods damaging crops, which can add pressure on inflation that in turn will add more pressure on rupee. Hence crop arrival numbers will be keenly watched by rupee traders. Negative crude prices and dollar price rising can play major role on rupee's movement in the coming months.
Q. What could be the remedy to ease that pressure?
A: There is not much that can be done to arrest the fall of rupee, as most of it has come on the back of global geo-political issues and sharp surge of dollar, adding pressure on global currencies. The RBI can only slow the pace of the fall in rupee, which has been its stance in the current year and we can see that continuing.
