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The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans points to a significant rise in production, exports, and ending stocks. Forecasts estimate a production of 4.6 billion bushels, supported by increased harvested area and yield. Global soybean production and exports are also on the rise, contributing to higher ending stocks, particularly in the U.S., China, and Argentina.

Highlights

Higher Soybean Production: U.S. soybean production for 2024/25 is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, marking an increase of 154 million bushels due to higher area and yield estimates.

Increased Harvest Area: The harvested area for U.S. soybeans is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up by 1.0 million acres from July, contributing to the increased production outlook.

Soybean Yield Growth: The first survey-based yield forecast for U.S. soybeans is 53.2 bushels per acre, representing an increase of 1.2 bushels from the previous month’s estimate.

Soybean Supply Surge: U.S. soybean supplies for 2024/25 are projected to reach 4.9 billion bushels, an 11 percent increase compared to the previous year’s supply levels.

Higher Soybean Exports: U.S. soybean exports for 2024/25 are projected to rise by 25 million bushels due to increased supplies, leading to a total export figure of 181.2 million tons globally.

Rising Ending Stocks: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast at 560 million bushels, a significant increase of 125 million bushels from the previous month’s forecast.

Price Decline for Soybeans: The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast to decrease to $10.80 per bushel, down $0.30 from the prior month’s estimate.

Soybean Meal and Oil Price Forecasts: The forecast for soybean meal price is $320 per short ton, down $10, while the soybean oil price remains unchanged at 42 cents per pound.

Global Oilseed Production: Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected at 690.5 million tons, with increases in soybean and rapeseed output offsetting declines in other oilseeds.

Global Soybean Production Increase: Global soybean production for 2024/25 is forecast to rise by 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million, driven by higher outputs in the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, India, and Benin.

Global Soybean Ending Stocks: Global soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to increase by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million, mainly due to higher stocks in China, the U.S., and Argentina.

Conclusion

The 2024/25 soybean market is poised for growth, driven by higher production and expanded export opportunities. U.S. farmers benefit from increased acreage and yields, while global dynamics, including higher production in key regions, contribute to an overall boost in supply. Despite the increased supply, soybean prices are expected to decline slightly, offering a mixed outlook for the market. Stakeholders should prepare for a market characterized by ample supply and competitive pricing.

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