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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 2.9% to settle at 148,017 amid renewed risk-off sentiment following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Fresh exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran reduced hopes for a diplomatic resolution, raising concerns about higher energy prices, inflationary pressures, and the possibility of further monetary tightening. US headline inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, the highest level since April 2023, while core inflation rose to a seven-month high of 2.9%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Market participants are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a quarter-point rate hike in December. On the demand front, China's central bank continued its gold accumulation strategy, increasing reserves for the 19th consecutive month to 74.96 million fine troy ounces. However, physical demand remained subdued across major Asian markets. In India, buyers stayed on the sidelines due to volatile international prices, while physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year during May as investors booked profits. In China, premiums eased slightly, reflecting softer demand conditions. Globally, gold ETF sentiment weakened, with net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by Asia and North America, although year-to-date inflows remain positive at nearly $17 billion. Meanwhile, gold held in London vaults increased marginally to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.21% to 9,358 lots while prices declined, indicating the formation of new short positions. Gold finds immediate support at 146,995, with a break below potentially extending losses toward 145,970. On the upside, resistance is seen at 149,950, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery toward 151,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145970-151880.

*  Gold falls on fading Middle East peace hopes

*  US inflation rose to 4.2% in May, its highest since April 2023, fueled by soaring energy costs tied to the Iran conflict

*  President Donald Trump stating that Iran will "have to pay the price" for delaying negotiations

Silver

Silver prices declined by 1.27% to settle at 235,505 as markets reacted to mixed macroeconomic signals and escalating geopolitical tensions. US inflation data broadly matched expectations, offering some relief that rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict have not yet significantly filtered into broader consumer prices. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% in May, while core CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, below forecasts. Following the data, traders slightly reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, although a 25-basis-point rate hike in December remains fully priced in. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming PPI report for further insight into underlying inflation pressures. Fundamental demand dynamics remain supportive for silver, particularly from China. March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly triple the historical March average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of changes to export tax rebates. Elevated domestic Chinese silver prices relative to international benchmarks also encouraged arbitrage inflows through Hong Kong. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults rose 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes. India introduced immediate restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, a move aimed at curbing imports and supporting the rupee. Since India accounts for more than 80% of its silver consumption through imports, the policy could tighten domestic supply and raise local premiums, though weaker Indian import demand may weigh on global prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.78% to 11,588 lots alongside the price decline. Immediate support is seen at 232,085, with a break below potentially extending losses toward 228,670. Resistance stands at 238,940, and a move above this level could open the door to 242,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228670-242380.

* Silver dropped as US inflation data largely matched expectations and the Iran conflict intensified.

* Annual inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, in line with market expectations.

* Traders modestly pared back expectations for rate hikes by the Fed this year, although a 25bps increase in December remains fully priced in.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices surged by 3.62% to settle at 8,726, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tightening supply fundamentals. Market sentiment remained highly sensitive after renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential additional strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iran continued to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that normally handles nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG trade. Although some shipping activity has resumed, uncertainty surrounding the conflict continues to support risk premiums in oil markets. Supply-side developments further strengthened prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels during the week ended June 5, significantly exceeding expectations for a 4 million-barrel decline. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also dropped by 801,000 barrels. Refinery utilization increased to 95.3%, reflecting robust processing activity. While gasoline inventories rose slightly by 0.2 million barrels, distillate stocks declined by 0.2 million barrels, indicating continued strength in refined product demand. Global supply concerns intensified as OPEC output in May dropped by 1.06 million barrels per day to 16.13 million bpd, the lowest level in more than two decades. Iranian exports fell to multi-year lows amid sanctions and military disruptions, while logistical challenges linked to the Strait of Hormuz affected other Gulf producers. Planned OPEC+ production increases were largely offset by these supply constraints. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 21.98% to 9,148 lots while prices advanced sharply. Immediate support is seen at 8,457, with further support at 8,187. Resistance is placed at 8,876, and a sustained breakout above this level could push prices toward 9,025.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8187-9025.

* Crude oil prices rose after U.S. President Trump scolded Iran ‌following tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran overnight.

* Trump says Iran too slow to negotiate a deal, must "pay the price"

* Tehran threatens to resume hostilities if Israel attacks Hezbollah

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced by 1.36% to settle at 305.7, supported by expectations of hotter-than-normal weather across the United States and a gradual decline in production levels. Updated weather forecasts indicate above-average temperatures are likely to persist through June 24, increasing cooling demand and boosting natural gas consumption by power generators as air-conditioning usage rises. This improved demand outlook helped support prices despite relatively comfortable inventory levels. According to data from LSEG, average natural gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has eased to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, compared with 109.7 bcfd in May and the record high of 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. The recent decline in production has contributed to a reduction in the storage surplus, with inventories estimated to be around 5% above normal levels, compared with approximately 6% above normal in the previous week. LSEG also projects total gas demand, including exports, to increase from 102.6 bcfd this week to 103.6 bcfd next week. On the supply side, U.S. energy firms injected 95 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 29, below market expectations of a 101 Bcf build. Total inventories stood at 2.578 trillion cubic feet, slightly below year-ago levels but comfortably above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026 and beyond, supported by rising LNG exports and growing power sector demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 11.81% to 16,505 lots while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 295.6, followed by 285.6. Resistance is placed at 313.0, and a sustained move above this level could drive prices toward 320.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 285.6-320.4.

* Natural gas gained as hotter weather and output decline expected to boost mid-June gas demand

* U.S. natural gas supply and demand will both rise to record highs in 2026 – EIA

* EIA projected domestic gas consumption will rise from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.1 bcfd in 2026 and 95.0 bcfd in 2027.

Copper

Copper prices declined by 1.06% to settle at 1,313.55 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy weighed on sentiment across industrial metals. The United States launched strikes against Iranian targets following the downing of an American helicopter, increasing concerns over inflation, higher energy costs, and the potential for further interest rate hikes, all of which could slow global economic growth and industrial demand. Despite the recent price weakness, underlying supply fundamentals remain supportive. LME copper inventories fell by 3,075 tons to 369,975 tons, the lowest level since early April, while warrant cancellations in Singapore pushed unavailable stocks to nearly 38% of total inventories, the highest proportion since December. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories also declined nearly 4% last week, reflecting tightening physical availability. In China, the central bank has encouraged banks to increase lending, reinforcing efforts to support economic activity and metal demand. Chinese unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons, driven largely by strong investment in power grid infrastructure, where spending increased 37% during the first quarter. Supply concerns persist due to slower mine growth in key producing regions. Production challenges at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine and the Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to limit supply growth, while Chilean copper output has also weakened. Major institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing tighter global supply conditions and stronger demand expectations. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 2.54% to 15,419 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 1,305.3, followed by 1,297.0. Resistance is placed at 1,324.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,335.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1297-1335.8.

* Copper fell as escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations of central bank interest rate hikes weighed.

* Jefferies expects copper prices to remain higher, pointing to an average annual supply deficit of 491,000 tons through 2030.

* LME copper stocks decreased by 3,075 tons to 369,975 tons, the lowest level since April 1.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 1.68% to settle at 359.35 as investors remained cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over their potential impact on global economic growth. Risk sentiment was further pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, significantly above forecasts, while stronger job openings and private sector employment data supported the U.S. dollar and reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts, weighing on industrial metals. Despite the decline in prices, supply-side fundamentals remain relatively supportive. China’s factory-gate inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month in May, reaching its highest level since 2022, indicating improving industrial activity. Market sentiment also received support from recent supply disruptions. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire, while Glencore-owned Kazzinc continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion at its facilities in Kazakhstan. These disruptions come at a time when the refined zinc market is already facing tighter conditions, with the International Lead and Zinc Study Group previously projecting a 19,000-ton deficit this year. However, upside momentum remains limited by expectations of increased production. Sweden’s Boliden plans to resume production at its Garpenberg mine during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting expects refined zinc output to rise by 3.2% year-on-year. Additionally, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, reflecting improving supply-demand balance. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.03% to 2,524 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 357.3, followed by 355.2. Resistance is placed at 363.2, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 367.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 355.2-367.

* Zinc dropped as hostilities in the Middle East and concerns about the implications for global economic growth weighed.

* Factory-gate inflation in China, rose for a third straight month in May to its highest since 2022.

* Goldman Sachs said Boliden's Garpenberg mine could "structurally reset to a lower production level for longer"

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices declined by 1.62% to settle at 371.3 as persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates weighed on the demand outlook for industrial metals. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid concerns that elevated borrowing costs could slow economic growth and industrial consumption. Despite the price decline, the aluminium market continues to receive support from supply-side disruptions and improving industrial activity in key consuming regions. China's aluminium trade data remained robust, with unwrought aluminium and product exports rising 5.68% year-on-year in May to 632,000 metric tons. During the first five months of 2026, exports increased 10.4% to 2.69 million tons, reflecting strong overseas demand. China's industrial profits also recorded their fastest growth since November 2023, providing additional support to market sentiment. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium production remained strong, increasing 3.1% year-on-year in April to 3.87 million metric tons, supported by healthy producer margins. Supply concerns continue to underpin the market. Aluminium production in the Gulf region has been significantly impacted by the Iran conflict, with primary aluminium output falling 35% year-on-year in April. Production disruptions at major regional smelters, including EGA and Bahrain's ALBA, alongside tighter bauxite export controls in Guinea, have raised concerns over raw material availability and future supply growth. Gulf producers are also pursuing overseas acquisitions to diversify supply chains and reduce geopolitical risks. Inventory trends presented a mixed picture. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium stocks edged higher by 0.1%, while inventories at major Japanese ports declined by 10.8% month-on-month, indicating stronger regional demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.12% to 3,364 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 368.4, followed by 365.3. Resistance is placed at 375.5, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 379.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 365.3-379.5.

* Aluminium dropped as persistent tensions in Middle East and prospects of higher US interest rates weighed on the demand.

* Pressure also started to see on aluminium prices amid concerns about the implications for global economic growth.

* Chinese production in April rose 1.5% to 3.68 million tons, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.44% to settle at 15,700, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals in key producing markets across Maharashtra and Telangana. Tight availability of quality produce has created near-term supply concerns, particularly as moisture-related crop issues, including rhizome rot in low-lying areas, have reduced the availability of premium export-grade turmeric. Strong holding by farmers and stockists in major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, driven by expectations of higher prices ahead, has also contributed to the firm market tone. Premium-grade Salem Fali turmeric continues to command substantial premiums, with prices reaching up to ?20,000 per quintal in major markets. However, gains remained limited due to increasing arrivals of late-harvested turmeric and accelerated stock liquidation by farmers seeking funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities. The higher inflow of average-quality, high-moisture turmeric has resulted in aggressive discounting in local mandis, temporarily easing supply tightness. Additionally, profit booking by traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels earlier in the season has added selling pressure. Export sentiment also remains mixed, as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to affect logistics and delay some overseas purchasing decisions. Fundamentally, market sentiment remains supported by lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season. Demand from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric and increasing orders for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers are providing additional support. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production estimates to 1.14 million tons has further strengthened bullish sentiment. Although March turmeric exports declined 16.8% year-on-year, cumulative exports for the financial year remained largely stable, indicating resilient long-term demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 10.99% to 13,965 lots while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 15,610, followed by 15,518. Resistance is placed at 15,774, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 15,846.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15518-15846.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* However, farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15675.75 Rupees gained by 0.96 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped marginally by 0.16% to settle at 19,155 as increased arrivals of the new crop from key producing regions in Rajasthan eased earlier concerns over supply tightness. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than anticipated, resulting in a sharp increase in market arrivals. Farmers have also accelerated stock liquidation to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, maintaining steady selling pressure. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, contributing to a temporary supply surplus and weighing on market sentiment. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality produce. Demand for residue-compliant and high-specification jeera from European and North American buyers has improved, supporting prices of superior grades. Industrial processors have also started replenishing inventories at current price levels. Concerns over crop quality continue to provide underlying support, as recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan affected standing crops during the harvest period. Additionally, unseasonal rainfall delayed drying and processing activities, raising concerns about the availability of high-grade Sortex-quality cumin. Fundamentally, production prospects remain lower compared to last year. Industry estimates indicate total domestic production could decline to around 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags in the previous season, primarily due to reduced acreage and lower yields in Gujarat. Crop quality has also been affected by blight disease in key growing regions. Global supply prospects remain supportive, with lower production estimates emerging from China and other major producing countries. Export performance remained mixed. March exports declined 15.54% year-on-year to 14,642.73 tonnes, although shipments improved 17.64% from February levels, indicating a recovery in export demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 10.82% to 5,739 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 19,090, followed by 19,010. Resistance is placed at 19,260, and a move above this level could push prices toward 19,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19010-19350.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed on prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19615.4 Rupees dropped by -0.56 percent.

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