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Gold

Gold prices settled down by -0.19% at 76,244, as fading bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve pressured the metal. The downside was limited by safe-haven demand, driven by concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the broader trend of declining global interest rates. These factors have maintained gold's attractiveness despite the Fed’s cautious stance. Additionally, the U.S. dollar strengthened after dovish remarks from Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, which added to the dollar's appeal as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would not rush to cut interest rates further. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin indicated that the path to achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target might be longer than anticipated, which could restrict how much interest rates are cut. In the physical market, gold demand weakened in key Asian hubs, as record-high prices discouraged buyers. India and China saw local prices hit all-time highs, with Indian dealers offering discounts of up to $19 per ounce, up from $17 the previous week. Similarly, Chinese discounts ranged between $16 and $7. Technically, the market saw long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -3.07% to 16,655 contracts, while prices fell by 146. Gold is now supported at 75,930, and a move below this could test 75,615. On the upside, resistance is expected at 76,465, and a move above this level could see prices testing 76,685. The technical outlook suggests cautious trading with support from geopolitical tensions and demand trends in focus.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 75615-76685.
* Gold fell after bets fade that the Fed will continue slashing interest rates aggressively.
* The downside is limited amid safe-haven flows into Gold due to the fear of an escalation of the conflict in Middle East.
* The U.S. central bank's fight to return inflation to its 2% target may take longer than expected to complete.

Silver

Silver surged by 1.75% to settle at 92,978 as escalating Middle East tensions led investors to seek safe-haven assets. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran heightened market uncertainty, further supporting demand for precious metals like silver. In addition, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have bolstered silver prices. The Fed's unexpected 50 basis-point cut in September, coupled with prospects of further easing due to a weakening labor market and slowing inflation, has created a favorable environment for bullion. Silver's industrial demand has also been boosted by China's fiscal and monetary stimulus, which has benefited sectors such as electrification and solar panel production. India's silver imports are expected to nearly double in 2024 due to rising demand from solar panel and electronics manufacturers, with imports in the first half of 2024 already reaching 4,554 tons, compared to just 560 tons in the same period last year. This demand surge is expected to provide additional support to global silver prices, which are hovering near decade highs. However, strong U.S. labor market data, including better-than-expected private-sector job creation in September, has tempered the upward momentum by reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Technically, the market saw short covering with open interest declining by 2.46% to 24,880 contracts as prices climbed by 1,603. Silver finds support at 91,880, and a break below could lead to a test of 90,775. On the upside, resistance is seen at 93,655, and a move above that level could push prices toward 94,325.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90775-94325.
* Silver rose as Middle East tensions drove investors toward safe-haven.
* Prices has recently benefited from expectations of rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks.
* Additionally, demand for silver has been supported by China's fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 3.81% to 6,161, driven by investor concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt oil flows from the region. The possibility of Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure raised fears of potential retaliation from Iran, further intensifying market anxiety. These concerns were slightly offset by a stronger global supply outlook, as OPEC has spare capacity to compensate for any disruption, including a full loss of Iranian oil supply. Kazakhstan is set to reduce its oil output in October due to scheduled maintenance at the Kashagan field, in line with OPEC+ agreements. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reaffirmed OPEC+’s role in stabilizing the global oil market, emphasizing that the group had contributed significantly to Russia's budget since 2016. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 3.889 million barrels for the week ending September 27, 2024, against market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub increased by 0.840 million barrels, while gasoline inventories grew by 1.119 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by 1.284 million barrels, below the forecasted 1.5 million drop. Meanwhile, China's crude oil imports in August dropped by 7% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand and refining margins, though imports improved from July. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 1.12% to 14,659 contracts as prices gained 226. Support is now at 5,995, and a move below this level could see prices test 5,828. Resistance is expected at 6,270, with a move above potentially leading to 6,378. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5828-6378.
* Crude oil prices rose amid concern that a widening Middle East conflict could disrupt crude oil flows.
* Kazakhstan will issue its largest oil-output cuts under the OPEC+ agreement in October.
* OPEC+ capacity could cushion Iranian supply shock


Natural gas 

Natural gas prices surged by 2.34% to settle at 249.2, driven by smaller-than-expected storage injections and forecasts of increased demand. The latest federal report showed that U.S. utilities added only 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ending September 27, 2024, below the market expectation of 57 bcf. This brought total stockpiles to 3,547 bcf, which is 127 bcf higher than the same time last year and 190 bcf above the five-year average of 3,357 bcf. Reduced storage injections this year are largely due to decreased drilling activity following multi-year low prices in March, which contributed to lower natural gas output. In October, U.S. production averaged 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), down from 101.8 bcfd in September and significantly lower than the record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Looking ahead, global gas demand is expected to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with Asia contributing to over half of this growth. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 to 103.4 bcfd from 103.8 bcfd in 2023, with demand reaching a record high of 89.9 bcfd. Technically, the market saw fresh buying with a 12.12% increase in open interest to 20,617 contracts, reflecting bullish sentiment. Prices rose by 5.7, with support now at 245.1, and a break below this level could test 241.1. On the upside, resistance is likely at 252.2, and a move above this could lead to prices testing 255.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 241.1-255.3.
* Natural gas gained following smaller-than-expected storage injections and forecasts for higher demand.
* US utilities added 55 billion cubic feet of gas into storage
* Last week's increase raised stockpiles to 3,547 Bcf, 127 Bcf higher than last year at this time



Copper

Copper prices settled down by -0.47% at 852.6, driven by profit booking as investors awaited further cues after recent stimulus measures from Beijing. In September, China introduced policies aimed at supporting economic growth, including rate cuts, liquidity injections, and easing home purchase restrictions. Despite these measures, the market remained cautious, contributing to the price decline. Additionally, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses increased to 141,625 tons by September 30, marking the first rise since early July, after 12 consecutive weeks of stockpile reduction as prices corrected from record highs earlier this year. The global refined copper market displayed a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, following a 113,000 metric ton surplus in June, as per the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first seven months of 2024, the market surplus reached 527,000 metric tons, compared to 79,000 metric tons during the same period in 2023. This surplus indicates a well-supplied market, further pressuring prices. In August, China’s unwrought copper imports fell to a 16-month low of 415,000 metric tons, down 12.3% year-on-year, reflecting weaker demand. Technically, the market saw long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by -0.78% to 8,376 contracts while prices declined by 4. Copper is currently receiving support at 845.4, and a move below this level could test 838.1. On the upside, resistance is expected at 863.7, and a break above could lead to prices testing 874.7. The technical outlook suggests cautious sentiment, with a well-supplied market and weak demand from China weighing on prices.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 838.1-874.7.
* Copper dropped on profit booking as investors awaited more cues following a series of stimulus measures from Beijing.
* SHFE Copper inventories rose to 141,625 tons on Sept. 30
* The LME cash copper contract was trading at a discount of $141.16 a ton against the three-month contract

Zinc

Zinc prices settled down by -0.18% at 283.95, driven by profit booking following recent gains spurred by economic stimulus measures from China. These measures included liquidity injections, mortgage rate cuts, and easing of home purchase restrictions, aimed at boosting the country’s property market. Despite these actions, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in September, marking the lowest level since July 2023, signaling a renewed downturn in new orders, which hit their lowest in two years. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 79,980 metric tons, adding some support to the price. However, the global refined zinc market is projected to face a 164,000 metric ton deficit in 2024, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This deficit is due to reduced output in Europe, China, and several other regions, though increases in production from Australia, Mexico, and Congo may offset some of the decline. The ILZSG expects refined zinc production to decrease by 1.8% to 13.67 million tons in 2024, while global demand for refined zinc is projected to rise by 1.8% to 13.83 million tons. Technically, the market saw long liquidation, as open interest decreased by -10.47% to 3,328 contracts while prices fell by 0.5. Zinc is currently supported at 281.2, and a move below this could test the 278.5 level. On the upside, resistance is expected at 288.1, with a potential test of 292.3 if prices break above. The overall outlook remains cautious as supply constraints and demand fluctuations continue to impact the market.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.5-292.3.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid China’s economic stimulus measures
* The global refined zinc market could see a 164,000 metric ton deficit in 2024
* Zinc inventories in SHFE dropped to 79,980 metric tons on Monday.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.42% to settle at 240.65, supported by a series of economic stimulus measures from China aimed at boosting industrial demand. The Chinese government unveiled aggressive fiscal support to achieve its 5% growth target, following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) monetary stimulus, which included liquidity injections of CNY 1 trillion and refinancing over CNY 37 trillion of mortgages at favorable rates. This has boosted sentiment for industrial metals, including aluminium. On the supply side, risks surrounding alumina output in China have contributed to price pressure. Challenges with bauxite production in Guinea and Australia have heightened concerns about alumina security, further supporting aluminium prices. Additionally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) is observing tightening in the aluminium market, with a key spread between October and November contracts rising to a premium of $18 per metric ton, suggesting increased demand for aluminium. China's aluminium output surged in August, reaching 3.73 million metric tons, the highest monthly figure since 2002. This growth was driven by higher aluminium prices and steady profitability for smelters, particularly in regions with ample hydropower like Yunnan province. For the first eight months of 2024, China’s aluminium production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 28.91 million tons. Global primary aluminium output also rose by 2.4% in July to 6.194 million tons, with China contributing a significant portion of this increase. Technically, the market experienced short covering, as open interest fell by 6.61% to 3,193 contracts. Aluminium finds support at 237.6, and a break below could test 234.4. On the upside, resistance is expected at 244.3, and a move above that could push prices toward 247.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 234.4-247.8.
* Aluminium seen supported amid China’s economic support measures.
* The premium of LME October aluminium over November hit $18 a metric ton from a premium of $5.85 about three weeks ago.
* Global aluminium surplus seen at 200,000-300,000 T in 2025

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices declined by 0.43% to settle at 57,460 amid moderate demand and weak export activity, especially to Bangladesh. Despite this, the downside was limited due to hopes of demand recovery from China following stimulus measures and concerns about potential crop damage in key growing areas due to Hurricane Helene. The USDA has revised India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, lowering ending stocks to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage caused by excessive rains and pest issues. Additionally, cotton acreage has dropped by around 9% in the current Kharif season compared to last year. India's cotton exports for the 2023-24 season are estimated to have risen by 80%, reaching 28 lakh bales due to increased demand from Bangladesh and Vietnam. In contrast, imports rose to 16.40 lakh bales from 12.50 lakh bales last year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates closing stocks at 23.32 lakh bales as of September 2024, down from 28.90 lakh bales last year, with consumption for the year estimated at 317 lakh bales. On the global front, the U.S. cotton production forecast for 2024/25 was lowered to 14.5 million bales, with reductions in exports and ending stocks. World cotton production was also revised down due to smaller crops in the U.S., India, and Pakistan, offset by a larger crop in China. Technically, the market saw fresh selling as open interest rose by 1.72% to 118 contracts. Cottoncandy is finding support at 57,420, and a break below could test 57,370. Resistance is seen at 57,510, with prices potentially testing 57,550 if momentum continues upward.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57370-57550.
* Cotton dropped amid moderate demand, with weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh.
* Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year or season ending September are estimated at about 80 per cent at 28 lakh bales
* The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled down by -1.73% at 13,654 due to profit booking, following earlier gains driven by reports of crop damage in Nanded and Hingoli areas due to heavy rains. The total arrivals in the market were lower at 14,915 bags, compared to the previous session’s 16,975 bags, mainly due to a sharp drop in arrivals at Sangli, where only 890 bags were reported against 11,000 bags in the prior session. With five months left before harvesting, a combination of low supply and unfavorable weather conditions is expected to support prices in the coming weeks. However, the upside is limited by news of increased sowing. In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated harvesting, and rising acreage, coupled with low export demand, could apply further downward pressure on prices. Turmeric sowing in regions like Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh has reportedly increased by 30-35% compared to last year. It is estimated that turmeric acreage has expanded to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year, up from 3-3.25 lakh hectares in 2023. Despite increased sowing, the production for 2024 is expected to be 70-75 lakh bags, lower than the estimated demand, leading to reduced availability in 2025. Turmeric exports during April-July 2024 dropped by 13.97%, while imports surged by 429.58% in the same period. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 5% to 12,535 contracts as prices fell by 240. Turmeric is currently supported at 13,514, with further support at 13,372. On the upside, resistance is expected at 13,774, and a move above could push prices to 13,892. The market remains sensitive to weather conditions and supply dynamics.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13372-13892.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains
* Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, lower than the previous session's 16,975 bags.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14424.05 Rupees dropped by -0.49 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged up by 0.27% to settle at 26,405, supported by strong domestic and export demand, along with tight global supplies. Farmers have been holding back their stocks in anticipation of higher prices, further boosting the market. However, the upside was limited due to expectations of increased production this season. Sowing areas in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan have expanded significantly, with Gujarat’s area up by 104% and Rajasthan’s by 16%. Jeera production for the season is expected to rise by 30%, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, largely driven by the increased cultivation area. Globally, cumin production has also surged, particularly in China, where output jumped to 55-60 thousand tons, more than double the previous levels. Other major producers like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are also expected to see higher production, which could exert downward pressure on prices as these new supplies enter the market. In India, the total production in Gujarat is estimated to reach a record 4.08 lakh tonnes, while Rajasthan is expected to see a 53% increase in output. Jeera exports during April-July 2024 rose by 58.31% to 91,070 tonnes compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong global demand. In July 2024 alone, exports increased by 110.15% compared to July 2023. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 0.18% to 1,689 contracts. Jeera prices are finding support at 26,210, and a break below this level could test 26,010. On the upside, resistance is seen at 26,550, and a move above this level could push prices toward 26,690.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26010-26690.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* However upside seen limited as the expectation of higher production weighed on the prices.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26248.9 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.

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