IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.92% to settle at 157,616 amid rising expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and persistent inflation concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Escalating uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations pushed Brent crude prices over 3% higher, increasing concerns over inflationary pressures through potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Market participants are now pricing in a possible 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also supported removing the “easing bias” from policy guidance, signaling a preference to maintain higher rates until inflation moves closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Despite near-term weakness, long-term fundamentals for gold remain supportive. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of central bank gold purchases sharply higher, now expecting average buying near 60 tonnes per month through 2026 amid continued reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty. However, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold forecast to $5,243 per ounce due to softer short-term demand, although it still expects prices to approach $6,000 per ounce by year-end 2026. Physical demand trends remained mixed across major consuming regions. In India, gold traded at discounts of up to $78 per ounce as high prices and increased import duties curbed jewellery demand. However, investment demand remained exceptionally strong, rising 52% year-on-year during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time. Global gold demand rose 2% during Q1 2026, supported by stronger investment flows and central bank buying. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest declined 7.71% to 4,562 lots. Gold is holding support at 157,100 and 156,580, while resistance is seen at 158,465 followed by 159,310.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 156580-159310.

*  Gold falls as energy-driven inflation threatens to push interest rates higher

*  Markets currently expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December.

*  UBS lowers year – end 2026 gold price forecast to $5,500/oz

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 2.2% to settle at 270,628 amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and rising concerns over inflation-led tighter monetary policy. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to influence market sentiment after reports indicated that the US military targeted missile launch sites and vessels in southern Iran. Although diplomatic discussions between the US and Iran are reportedly progressing, concerns over further military escalation kept investors cautious. Silver prices have now fallen nearly 20% since the conflict began, as elevated energy prices strengthened expectations that global central banks may maintain restrictive interest rate policies for longer. Federal Reserve officials also maintained a cautious stance on inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that current monetary policy remains well-positioned to address economic shocks, while emphasizing uncertainty regarding inflation and growth risks. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE inflation report for additional direction on future Federal Reserve policy decisions. On the demand side, China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical seasonal average. Strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of export tax rebate changes significantly boosted imports. Elevated domestic silver premiums in China also encouraged global arbitrage flows through Hong Kong. Meanwhile, India imposed fresh restrictions on silver imports across most categories to reduce pressure on the rupee and manage rising import bills. India’s silver imports had previously reached a record $12 billion during FY 2025-26, supported largely by strong investment demand and record ETF inflows. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 3.15% to 9,473 lots while prices declined sharply. Silver is holding support at 268,605 and 266,585, while resistance is seen at 273,685 followed by 276,745.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 266585-276745.

* Silver fell as heightened uncertainty in the Middle East kept investors cautious about inflation risks.

* Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations driven by elevated Oil prices continue to weigh.

* CFTC-COMEX silver speculators cut net long position by 4,434 contracts to 11,761 in week to May 19

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged 4.5% to settle at 9,014 amid escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. military strikes in Iran, intensifying concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Market sentiment remained highly volatile as hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution weakened after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that negotiations with Iran could take several more days. Iran also confirmed that current discussions are focused on ending the conflict rather than nuclear negotiations, maintaining uncertainty around regional stability and energy exports. Supply concerns remained the key driver behind the rally. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $100 per barrel while highlighting that global inventory trends are signaling a significant supply deficit of nearly 6–8 million barrels per day. Ongoing disruptions linked to the conflict continue to affect deliveries from several oil-producing regions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ members are expected to approve only a modest output increase for July despite elevated prices and supply concerns. Support also came from bullish U.S. inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude inventories declined sharply by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations for a smaller draw. Gasoline inventories also fell by 1.5 million barrels, reflecting steady fuel demand, while crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub dropped by 1.6 million barrels. However, distillate inventories posted a moderate increase during the week. OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd earlier, citing risks from the ongoing Iran conflict. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest declined 3.31% to 11,419 lots. Crude oil is holding support at 8,813 and 8,611, while resistance is seen at 9,153 followed by 9,291.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8611-9291.

* Crude oil rose after the U.S. military carried out strikes in Iran, adding to ‌uncertainty.

* US Secretary of State says negotiating deal could 'take a few days'

* CFTC-Oil speculators raise WTI net long position by 15,017 contracts to 110,348 in week to May 19

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher by 0.17% to settle at 292.3 amid improving demand forecasts and lower production levels, despite pressure from a larger-than-expected storage build and weaker LNG export flows. Market sentiment remained mixed as weather forecasts indicated temperatures would largely remain near seasonal norms through early June, limiting expectations for stronger cooling demand from the power sector. The latest Energy Information Administration data showed that U.S. utilities injected 101 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ending May 15, exceeding market expectations of a 95 bcf build and remaining above the five-year average increase of 92 bcf for the same period. Total gas inventories rose to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 2.3% above last year’s level and 6.5% higher than the five-year seasonal average, highlighting comfortable supply conditions in the domestic market. Additional pressure came from softer LNG export demand, as feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG terminals declined from a record 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance at facilities including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG. However, sentiment improved after reports indicated that three U.S. LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China during June, marking the first deliveries since February 2025. Expectations of stronger Chinese LNG demand ahead of winter and concerns over potential disruptions to Hormuz energy flows also supported prices. Meanwhile, the EIA projected U.S. dry gas production to rise to record highs of 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027, driven mainly by growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 11.22% to 18,574 lots. Natural gas holds support at 289.9 and 287.6, while resistance is seen at 296.4 followed by 300.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 287.6-300.6.

* Natural gas edged up as stronger demand forecasts and lower output supported prices.

* Goldman Sachs sees China's natgas destocking boosting LNG imports ahead of winter

* CFTC- Natural gas speculators in four major NYMEX, ICE markets trim net short position by 20,228 contracts to 2,026 in week to May 19

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.75% to settle at 1,357.25 amid growing concerns over the global economic outlook following renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude oil prices after recent U.S. strikes on Iran increased fears of inflationary pressure and slower global growth, weighing on industrial metals sentiment. President Trump’s comments regarding maintaining restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz until a formal agreement is reached further added uncertainty to global trade and commodity markets. Despite the decline, underlying supply concerns and long-term demand expectations continued to provide support to copper prices. The ongoing global energy transition remains a major positive factor for long-term copper consumption, particularly from power infrastructure, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sectors. Concerns over sulfur shortages linked to Middle East disruptions also continued to support the copper smelting market. China’s refined copper production in April increased 1.6% year-on-year to 1.27 million metric tons, while unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons, reflecting resilient domestic demand. Strong investment in China’s power grid infrastructure, which rose 37% during January-March 2026, remained a key demand driver. Meanwhile, copper inventories in LME warehouses declined to a ten-week low, although Shanghai exchange stocks posted their first weekly increase since mid-March. On the supply side, production concerns persisted due to lower output in Chile, maintenance at Chinese smelters, and uncertainties surrounding Freeport’s Grasberg mine operations. However, the International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to move into surplus during 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 16.94% to 15,554 lots. Copper is holding support at 1,354.3 and 1,351.3, while resistance is seen at 1,362.1 followed by 1,366.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1351.3-1366.9.

* Copper dropped as higher oil prices fuelled concerns over the global economic outlook.

* The global refined copper market was in a surplus of 396,000 tons in January-March.

* CFTC-COMEX copper speculators raise net long position by 1,476 contracts to 74,999 in week to May 19

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.88% to settle at 367.5 amid concerns over the global economic outlook following ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Continued U.S. military operations in southern Iran and uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations increased market caution over inflation risks and potential impacts on industrial demand. However, downside remained limited due to tightening global supply conditions caused by multiple production disruptions in key zinc-producing regions. Support for zinc prices emerged after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, following a fire that damaged processing infrastructure. Additional supply concerns came after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operating capacity at its zinc and lead plants in Kazakhstan after a recent explosion. Even before these disruptions, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had projected a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market for the current year. LME zinc inventories remained critically low at 111,250 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting tight physical market conditions. However, gains were capped by expectations of improving supply from other producers. Swedish miner Boliden confirmed that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of fiscal year 2026-27. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also rose 1.5% during the week, indicating some improvement in Chinese supply conditions. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 23.59% to 2,211 lots. Zinc is holding support at 365.7 and 363.8, while resistance is seen at 370.6 followed by 373.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 363.8-373.6.

* Zinc dropped on concerns over the global economic outlook as US military operations kept investors cautious

* However downside seen limited supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.64% to settle at 386.6 amid persistent concerns over tightening global supply conditions and rising alumina prices. Strong support came after alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 5% to their highest level since early May, driven by worries over bauxite supply from Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer. Guinea is considering export quotas for mining companies as rising shipping costs reduce export revenues, with the new policy expected to be finalized in June. These developments intensified concerns over raw material availability for aluminium production. Additional support came from disruptions in Middle East aluminium supply linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. The Gulf region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, and supply disruptions have significantly tightened nearby market availability. The premium for LME cash aluminium contracts over the three-month benchmark remained elevated, touching multi-year highs near $84 per ton, reflecting strong demand for immediate supplies. Physical market fundamentals also remained supportive. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports declined 10.8% month-on-month to 249,500 metric tons at the end of April. According to the International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production in the Gulf region dropped 35% year-on-year during April due to operational disruptions caused by the regional conflict. Global primary aluminium production also declined 2.1% during the month. Meanwhile, China continued to maintain strong aluminium production and export activity. China’s aluminium output increased 3.1% year-on-year in April to 3.87 million metric tons, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products jumped 15%, reaching the highest monthly level in at least one year. Rising overseas prices and supply tightness supported export demand. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased 25.09% to 4,078 lots. Aluminium is holding support at 384 and 381.4, while resistance is seen at 388.5 followed by 390.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 381.4-390.4.

* Aluminium prices rose as rising prices for the feedstock alumina added to persistent concerns about a tightening market.

* Providing support to aluminium was a 5% rise in September alumina futures on SHFE, which advanced to their highest since early May.

* World’s largest bauxite producer Guinea is set to announce export control measures in June

Turmeric

Turmeric prices ended marginally higher by 0.01% at 16,232 amid mixed market fundamentals. Lower-than-normal arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana continued to support prices during the peak arrival season. Supply of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric remained tight due to moisture-related rhizome rot issues in low-lying cultivation areas. Strong holding activity by farmers and stockists in Sangli and Nizamabad, expecting prices to move towards ?18,000, also supported sentiment. High-grade “Salem Fali” turmeric continued to command premiums near ?20,000 per quintal in major spot markets. However, gains remained capped as daily arrivals increased sharply, creating temporary supply pressure in local mandis. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to raise cash for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, while late-harvested high-moisture produce faced aggressive discounting. Profit-booking by traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels in March further added selling pressure. Reduced weather concerns during the post-harvest phase also limited the risk premium in prices. On the demand side, export sentiment remained supportive due to rising procurement of IPM-certified turmeric from the EU and active buying inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision in production estimates to 1.140 million tons strengthened medium-term bullish expectations. Carry-forward stocks are estimated near 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season’s 20 lakh bags. Export data showed turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2026 rose 1% to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined 40% to 12,476 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 0.69% to 20,525 lots. Turmeric holds support at 16,146 and 16,058, while resistance is seen at 16,306 followed by 16,378.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16058-16378.

* Turmeric settled flat as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly  to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15758.2 Rupees gained by 0.73 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.75% to settle at 19,330 amid heavy fresh crop arrivals and continued selling pressure from producing regions. Increased arrivals from major Rajasthan hubs eased earlier supply concerns as favorable weather conditions allowed harvesting activities to progress faster than expected. Farmers actively released stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, resulting in a temporary supply glut in physical markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated near 28,500 bags, weighing on overall sentiment. Despite the weakness, downside remained limited due to concerns over crop quality and lower overall production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvesting stage, reducing the availability of premium “A-grade” quality jeera. Unseasonal rains across North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, creating intermittent supply disruptions. Market participants highlighted that carry-forward stocks of high-quality “Sortex” grade jeera are lower compared to last year, supporting premium prices in select grades. Production estimates continue to indicate tighter long-term supplies. Industry estimates suggest total domestic production this season may decline to 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output may remain around 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and blight disease outbreaks in Gujarat have impacted crop quality and productivity. Expectations of strong Chinese buying demand from mid-April continue to support medium-term market sentiment. Export data showed jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2026 declined 15% to 166,536 tonnes compared to last year. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest fell 0.32% to 10,290 lots. Jeera holds support at 19,120 and 18,900, while resistance is seen at 19,590 followed by 19,840.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18900-19840.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19765.45 Rupees dropped by -1.1 percent.