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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 49302 as investors geared up for a raft of interest rate decisions by major central banks this week, with the US Federal Reserve set to deliver another jumbo rate hike to tame surging inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation numbers and solid economic data in the US last week cemented expectations that the Fed will tighten further, and markets are currently priced for a third straight 75 basis point increase. Other major central banks such as the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to raise interest rates this week, with analysts divided on whether the BOE would hike rates by 50 or 75 basis points. Gold lost its shine as a store of value in times of economic uncertainties as the US’ relative economic strength and the Fed’s aggressive stance against inflation lifted the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets. Solid US retail sales and jobless claims data, along with a surprisingly hot CPI report, cemented fears that the Fed may need to move even more aggressively to arrest surging prices. Gold also lost its shine as a safer-haven asset in times of heightened economic uncertainties, with the World Bank and IMF slashing growth forecasts for key economies, while major US companies issued weak guidance on dire economic outlooks. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.56% to settle at 8873 while prices are down -78 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49094 and below same could see a test of 48886 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49460, a move above could see prices testing 49618.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48886-49618.
* Gold prices weakened as investors geared up for a raft of interest rate decisions by major central banks
* The US Federal Reserve set to deliver another jumbo rate hike to tame surging inflation
* US relative economic strength and the Fed’s aggressive stance against inflation lifted the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 56684 as the dollar and Treasury yields rose on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a steep rate hike when it meets this week. For the last 9 months, this stockpile of silver, held in the LBMA vaults in London, has been consistently falling each and every month, and has now reached an all time low. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury surged past 3.5%, approaching levels not seen since April 2011, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will further accelerate the pace of its monetary tightening due to stubbornly high inflation. Data showed US consumer prices rose at an 8.3% annual pace in August, decelerating less than expected, while retail sales beat forecasts and weekly unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since May, ramping up bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by as much as 100bps on Wednesday. Goldman said that it now sees GDP growth of 1.1% next year, down from its prior call for 1.5% growth from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of 2023. The influential financial firm now expects the Federal Reserve to hike policy rates by 75 basis points at its meeting next week, up from 50 basis points previously and sees 50 bp hikes in November and December, with the fed funds rate peaking at 4-4.25% by the end of the year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2% to settle at 18107 while prices are down -36 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56399 and below same could see a test of 56113 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57007, a move above could see prices testing 57329.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 56113-57329.
* Silver settled flat as the dollar and Treasury yields rose on expectations Fed will deliver a steep rate hike# US 10-year treasury yield hits over 11-year high
* Goldman Sachs cuts 2023 U.S. GDP forecasts

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 6817 as worries of tight supplies outweighed fears that global demand could slow due to a strong U.S. dollar and possible large increases to interest rates. German buyers reserved capacity to receive Russian gas via the shut Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but this was later revised and no gas has been flowing. Central banks around the world are certain to increase borrowing costs to tame high inflation this week and there is some risk of a blowout 1 percentage point rise by the U.S. Federal Reserve. OPEC+ fell short of its oil production target by 3.583 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, an internal document showed, having missed target by 2.892 million bpd in July. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July rose to 7.38 million barrels per day from 7.20 million bpd in June, the International Energy Forum (IEF) said, citing data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Crude has soared this year, with the Brent benchmark coming close to its record high of $147 in March after Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated supply concerns. Worries about weaker economic growth and demand have since pushed prices lower. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.67% to settle at 6290 while prices are up 7 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6637 and below same could see a test of 6458 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6915, a move above could see prices testing 7014.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6458-7014.
* Crude oil edges up as supply woes outweigh demand and rate hike worries
* Oil also came under pressure from hopes of an easing of Europe's gas supply crisis.
* OPEC+ fell 3.58 mln b/d short of August quota

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.19% at 617.1 as US railroads and labor unions reached an agreement to avert a rail shutdown that would hit energy supplies across the country. The previous threat of a rail strike sent natural gas prices close to the 14-year high of $10/MMBtu hit in August, as a rail strike would halt coal deliveries and ramp up coal-to-gas switching activity. Elsewhere, data from the EIA pointed to 77 billion cubic feet of gas being added to storage by utilities in the week that ended September 9th, above estimates of 73 billion. On top of that, domestic supply is set to rise as the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is set to shut down for maintenance in October, disabling exports abroad and increasing stockpiles for domestic utilities. U.S. gas demand has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.89% to settle at 5303 while prices are down -13.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 595.9 and below same could see a test of 574.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 635.3, a move above could see prices testing 653.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 574.8-653.6.
* Natural gas extended their decline as US railroads and labor unions reached an agreement to avert a rail shutdown.
* Data from the EIA pointed to 77 billion cubic feet of gas being added to storage by utilities in the week
* Domestic supply is set to rise as the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is set to shut down for maintenance in October


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 648.45 amid signs of lower demand for industrial and construction inputs in top consumer China. Data from the Chinese NBS pointed to a further decline in prices in the country’s important real estate sector, and new home prices fell at the fastest pace since mid-2015. Previously, the NBS manufacturing PMI contracted for a second consecutive month in August and the broader Caixin gauge marked an unexpected contraction, limiting optimism from improved industrial production figures during the month. On top of that, new Covid outbreaks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen led governments to enforce lockdowns for millions, adding to concerns of lower economic activity. The people Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the borrowing cost of 14-day reverse repos from 2.25% to 2.15% on Monday. The central bank resumed 14-day operations for the first time since late January, with injecting CNY 10 billion. At the same time, PBoC also injected CNY 2 billion through seven-day reverse repos and kept the rate unchanged at 2%. With no reverse repo maturing on Monday, the PBOC injected a net CNY 12 billion via the short-term liquidity instruments. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system at the end of the quarter, it said in online statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.2% to settle at 5018 while prices are down -2.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 644.4 and below same could see a test of 640.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 651.9, a move above could see prices testing 655.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 640.2-655.2.
* Copper dropped amid signs of lower demand for industrial and construction inputs in top consumer China.
* Chinese NBS pointed to a further decline in prices in the country’s important real estate sector, and new home prices fell
* New Covid outbreaks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen led governments to enforce lockdowns for millions, adding to concerns of lower economic activity.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 282.05 recovering from amid persistent supply concerns. Expectations of deeper production cuts in Europe, shortages and dwindling stocks after high energy costs forced Nyrstar to shut its zinc smelter in the Netherlands have bolstered zinc’s price prospects. At the same time, Beijing recently imposed stringent power restrictions across the country. China's refined zinc output stood at 462,700 mt in August, down 13,200 mt or 2.77% on the month and 46,200 mt or 9.07% on the year. The people Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the borrowing cost of 14-day reverse repos from 2.25% to 2.15%. The central bank resumed 14-day operations for the first time since late January, with injecting CNY 10 billion. At the same time, PBoC also injected CNY 2 billion through seven-day reverse repos and kept the rate unchanged at 2%. Foreign direct investment into China climbed 16.4% year-on-year to CNY 892.74 billion (USD 138.41 billion) in the first eight months of the year, China’s commerce ministry data showed. In dollar terms, FDI rose 20.2%. Foreign investment into the service sector climbed 8.7%, while high-tech industries FDI inflow surged by 33.6%. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.21% to settle at 1209 while prices are up 0.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 278.9 and below same could see a test of 275.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.4, a move above could see prices testing 286.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.7-286.7.
* Zinc prices recovered amid persistent supply concerns.
* PBoC cuts 14-day reverse repo rate to 2.15%
* FDI into china rises 16.4%yoy in Jan-August


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.28% at 196.55 as concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown prevailed as increasingly hawkish central banks dented demand for industrial metals. China's aluminium imports in August dropped 19% from a year earlier to 200,440 tonnes, reflecting a weaker import appetite amid record-high domestic production and tight overseas supply. The country brought in 200,440 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The fall in imports came as supply jitters at home eased thanks to this year's production ramp-up as power restrictions that curtailed domestic production were relaxed. The power restrictions have also boosted demand for imported material. China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of the light metal, made 3.51 million tonnes of aluminium in August, a record for a single month, following a prior record set in July. Concerns of low supply supported prices as electrolytic Aluminum producers in the Yunnan region of China cut production due to power outages. Previously, aluminum fell from the record-high of $3,849 hit in March on fears of oversupply when LME warehouse aluminum stockpiles increased by 11% from their lows. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.21% to settle at 4804 while prices are down -2.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.4 and below same could see a test of 194.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.3, a move above could see prices testing 200.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194.3-200.1.
* Aluminium dropped as concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown prevailed.
* Some pressure also seen on fears of oversupply when LME warehouse aluminum stockpiles increased by 11% from their lows.
* China's aluminium imports in August dropped 19% from a year earlier to 200,440 tonnes.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 971.6 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -14.2 Rupees to end at 1122 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.67% to settle at 1022 while prices are down -11 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967 and below same could see a test of 962.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 980, a move above could see prices testing 988.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 962.5-988.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -14.2 Rupees to end at 1122 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 7220 on profit booking as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7362.4 Rupees dropped -44.2 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.72% to settle at 13280 while prices are down -36 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7174 and below same could see a test of 7130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7298, a move above could see prices testing 7378.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7130-7378.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7362.4 Rupees dropped -44.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.28% at 24625 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -235.2 Rupees to end at 24493.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.91% to settle at 8691 while prices are down -575 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24240 and below same could see a test of 23860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25070, a move above could see prices testing 25520.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23860-25520.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -235.2 Rupees to end at 24493.75 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.9% at 32450 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118.24 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October, sources said. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118 lakh hectares in 2021.Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI), stated that the cotton crop condition in India was "very good and if everything goes well, we are expecting 350 lakh bales +/– 25 lakh bales." In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -1100 Rupees to end at 38960 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.14% to settle at 882 while prices are down -970 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32160 and below same could see a test of 31870 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32970, a move above could see prices testing 33490.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31870-33490.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022.
* U.S. export data showing solid sales of the natural fiber, with an elevated dollar preventing any large gains.
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -1100 Rupees to end at 38960 Rupees.

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