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Below the Perspective by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Mid-week update - Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services 1. Current Trends in the Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen has been experiencing significant fluctuations recently, marked by substantial interventions from the Japanese authorities in the currency market. Last week, Japan's currency chief, Masato Kanda, might have orchestrated back-to-back interventions but no o?icial statement has been...
Perspective by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Mid-week update - Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Friday tracking firm domestic equities after data showed the US economy grew faster than expected in second quarter, while investors are awaiting the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data which could confirm early interest rate cut expectations. However, some gains were limited by foreign fund outflows from capital markets following the government's decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains. Foreign Instituti...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Friday
The yen was poised for its strongest week in nearly three months on Friday as traders unwound their long-held bets against the frail currency ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could cement rate cut expectations. The yen has dominated the currency markets this month, surging to a near three-month high of 151.945 per dollar on Thursday after starting the month languishing at 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar. The large move follows suspected interventions from Tokyo in early July ...
Yen heads for strongest week in 3 months as carry trades unwind
Indian rupee strengthened marginally against the US dollar on Thursday ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting with rising bets of rate cut in September. Meanwhile, weakness of the American currency in the overseas market and fall in crude oil prices have also supported rupee sentiments. However, some gains were limited by weak equities and significant foreign fund outflows from the capital markets after the government's decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains. Foreign Institutional I...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Thursday
USDINR Observations USDINR trading range for the day is 83.71-83.89. Rupee settled flat as likely intervention from RBI. India Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.5 in July 2023, up from 58.3 in the previous month The HSBC India Services PMI increased to 61.1 in July 2024 from 60.5 in June, preliminary estimates showed SELL USDINR AUG @ 83.9 SL 84 TGT 83.8-83.7. EURINR Observations EURINR trading range for the day is 90.56-91.06. Euro dropped as ...
Sell USDINR Aug @ 83.9 SL 84 TGT 83.8-83.7 - Kedia Advisory
The Indian rupee is expected to decline to a lifetime low at open on Thursday on weak risk appetite and a drop in Asian peers. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.74-83.75 to the U.S. dollar, slipping past the previous all-time low of 83.72 and compared with 83.7175 on Wednesday. It would be the fourth day in a row that the local currency has hit a low. The Reserve Bank of India has intervened regularly to support the rupee, capping its decline. The rupee is d...
All-time low looms for rupee on risk aversion; RBI watched
The yen rose to its strongest level against the dollar in 2-1/2 months on Thursday and scaled multi-month highs against other currencies ahead of next week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, as yen carry trades unwound and risk appetite soured. The dollar, euro, sterling and other major currencies slumped more than 1% against the yen by the mid-morning in Asia, before paring some of those losses. Analysts attributed the yen's surge to the abandoning of short yen bets in the run up to t...
Yen rises sharply as carry trades unwind, risk mood sours
The Indian rupee is expected to decline further on Wednesday due to a rise in the dollar index and a possible slowdown in equity flows. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.70-83.71 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.6875 in the previous session. The rupee dipped to an all-time low of 83.7150 on Tuesday, amid choppy price action in local equities, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to intervene. "It will be more of the same today, with the RBI stepping ...
Rupee's downward bias likely to persist; cenbank expected to help out
Commodity currencies touched multi-week lows on Wednesday tracking weakness in Chinese demand, while the yen has surged as short-sellers bail out ahead of a central bank meeting. Purchasing managers' index figures will be particularly watched in Europe later in the session to see whether they support bets on two European rate cuts by the end of January. The euro held at $1.0848 in Asia trade and sterling, which could rally if PMIs in Britain surprise to the upside and reduce bets on...
Dollar firms as commodities slide and carry unwinds
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget presentation, that could provide further cues on fiscal deficit, capital expenditure, tax revenue and GST among others. Moreover, foreign fund inflows, and weaker American currency have also supported the rupee. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday as they purchased shares worth Rs 3,444.06 crore, exchange data s...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Tuesday
The Indian rupee marginally rose on Tuesday, tracking a rise in most of its Asian peers and as investors awaited the presentation of India's budget later in the day. The rupee was at 83.6250 against the U.S. dollar as of 09:30 a.m. IST, up slightly from its close of 83.6575 in the previous session. The local currency had slipped to its weakest level on record on Monday as sustained dollar demand from local importers weighed in recent sessions, while the Reserve Bank of India's a...
Rupee nudges higher tracking Asian peers; India budget awaited
The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to regain their footing on Tuesday after China's move to cut several key interest rates, while the yen rose ahead of Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting at the end of the month. China on Monday surprised markets by cutting major short and long-term interest rates in its first such broad move since last August, signalling intent to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. The two Antipodean currencies, often used as...
Aussie, kiwi dollars struggle on China's rate cuts; yen gains
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, as the American currency retreated from its elevated level on news that US President Joe Biden has endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee in the November election after he announced he would step aside from the race. Moreover, foreign fund inflows and possible intervention by the Reserve Bank of India have also supported the Indian currency at lower levels. Foreign Institutional Inves...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar in early trade on Monday
The dollar eased slightly on Monday as investors gauged the implications of U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and clear the way for another Democrat to challenge Donald Trump. China's yuan weakened after the central bank's surprise decision to cut a key interest rate. The China-sensitive Australian dollar also fell, reversing an earlier advance. The U.S. currency slipped 0.03% to 157.435 yen, while the euro gained 0.07% to $1.0891 and sterli...
Dollar eases as Biden ends re-election bid; yuan weakens after rate cut
The Indian rupee was pinned near its record low on Monday, amid weakness in most Asian currencies, with dollar sales from state-run banks helping the South Asian currency avert a decline. The rupee was at 83.6525 against the U.S. dollar as of 09:40 a.m. IST, nearly unchanged from its previous close at 83.6625 in the previous session. The rupee had hit its all-time low of 83.6660 on June 20. Asian currencies were mostly weaker, with the Thai baht down 0.5% and leading losses, while the o...
Rupee holds just above all-time low as state-run banks' dollar sales support
Indian rupee strengthened marginally against the US dollar on Friday, tracking sustained foreign fund inflows and fall in crude oil prices. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth Rs 5,483.63 crore, exchange data showed. However, some gains were limited by strength of the American currency overseas and, dollar demand from foreign investors and oil companies. The Reserve Bank of India stated that it is looking to lower i...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Friday
The Indian rupee may drop to a lifetime low on Friday, pressured by renewed weakness in Asian peers and expectations that dollar payments will persist. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.67-83.68 to the U.S. dollar, inching past the all-time low of 83.6650 hit in June and slightly weaker than 83.65 in the previous session. The currency has largely struggled in recent days amid dollar demand for defence and oil payments, according to traders. Weakness has been pe...
All-time low possible amid dollar payments, decline in Asian peers
The dollar rose in jittery trading on Friday, as a worldwide cyber outage that hit banks, airlines and broadcasters unsettled investors, although volatility in the currency market remained contained. Signs of disruption in one of the world's busiest financial centres emerged as London trade got underway. LSEG Group, which runs the London Stock Exchange, suffered an outage that affected user access to some of its products. By around midday in Europe, the company said its services had be...
Dollar set for weekly gain, cyber outage unnerves investors
The Indian rupee was nearly unchanged on Thursday as dollar demand from local oil companies offset positive cues from a decline in U.S. bond yields and on broad weakness in the dollar. The rupee was at 83.5925 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:45 a.m. IST compared with its close of 83.5825 on Tuesday. Indian financial markets were closed on Wednesday for a local holiday. The dollar index was up 0.1% after falling to its lowest in four months on Wednesday, pressured by growing hopes of Fe...
Rupee flat; dollar bids from oil firms cap gains amid US bond yield dip
Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar on Thursday due to profit-taking in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices. Moreover, marginal gains in American currency at overseas markets also weighed on rupee sentiments. However, some losses were limited by foreign fund inflows with data showed Foreign Institutional Investors purchased shares worth Rs 1,271.45 crore on Tuesday, and media reports showed that the Asian Development Bank on Wednesday maintained its GDP growth forecast for...
Rupee weakens against US dollar on Thursday
Japan's yen scaled a six-week high on Thursday, spurring speculation of an official push, while the dollar nursed broad losses as markets prepared for U.S. rate cuts in a few months. The euro, which scaled a four-month peak overnight, hovered near that level at $1.094 and sterling was steady at $1.3007, just below the one-year top it had made in overnight trade. The yen gained sharply on Wednesday and was up another 0.5% to touch 155.37 per dollar in the otherwise quiet early hours ...
Yen spikes as spectre of intervention spooks investors
The dollar was broadly weaker on Wednesday after a modest but short-lived boost following better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, as traders focused on the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as September. The New Zealand dollar rose as data showed domestically driven inflation remained high in the second quarter, even as the headline figure missed expectations. The kiwi gained 0.35% to $0.6071, though futures showed markets are sticking to bets of about three rate cuts ...
Dollar eases with Fed rate cuts back in view
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, followed by firm domestic equities and foreign fund inflows. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 2,684.78 crore, exchange data showed. India's merchandise exports in June increased 2.56% to $35.2 billion, even as the trade deficit widened to $20.98 billion during the month, data showed. Rupee improved further as Federal Reserve Chair Je...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Tuesday
The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Tuesday despite a decline in Asian peers on expectations that the central bank will not allow the currency to drop to an all-time low. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open flat from 83.5925 in the previous session. The dollar index inched up and Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.3%. The rupee hit an all-time low of 83.6650 hit last month. At this level of the rupee, the impact of the moves in Asia will...
Rupee pressed by weak Asia, supported by intervention hopes
The dollar hung around five-week lows on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a rate cut in September, while cryptocurrenices gained on rising odds of former President Donald Trump getting reelected. Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion. "We've ...
Dollar drifts as Powell comments bring September rate cut in focus
Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, tracking the strength of the American currency at overseas market after the attempted assassination of presidential candidate Donald Trump reinforced bets that his chances of winning the election have increased. Moreover, firm trend in domestic equities, hopes of rate cut by Federal Reserve and foreign fund inflows have restricted the fall. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as...
Rupee weakens against US dollar on Monday
The Indian rupee is likely to open marginally higher on Monday, shrugging off the decline in Asian peers amid higher odds of Donald Trump winning the November election. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.50-83.52 to the U.S. dollar from 83.5350 in the previous session. Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.6%, with the offshore yuan slipping to 7.28 to the dollar. Expectations of Trump reclaiming the White House have risen following an assassination attem...
Rupee likely to inch up despite weakness in Asian peers
Indian rupee was trading flat against the US dollar in early trade on Friday tracking muted American currency at overseas markets. Firm domestic equities and hopes of interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve by September after softer-than-expected US consumer price index inflation data, have supported the rupee. Meanwhile, firm crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows have put pressure on the local unit. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday ...
Rupee trades flat against US dollar in early trade on Friday
The Indian rupee edged higher on Friday, aided by a broadly weaker dollar after U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve, although dollar demand from importers capped further gains in the local currency. The rupee closed at 83.5350 against the U.S. dollar, up from its close at 83.56 in the previous session. The local unit was largely flat week-on-week. The dollar index was at 104.3 on Friday, on course for its second consecutive weekly loss, after...
Rupee ends tad higher, importers limit gains; currency flat on-week
The yen eased on Friday as investors remained nervous after a sharp surge in the previous session following data that showed U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly dropped, with speculation swirling that Tokyo had intervened in the currency market. The Japanese currency, which has been languishing around 38-year-lows, swung between gains and losses in early volatile trading in Asian hours before drifting slightly weaker. It was last down 0.19% at 159.08 per dollar. It had spiked nearly 3% to...
Yen keeps markets on edge as intervention risks swirl
Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar on Thursday amid elevated crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments. Traders ignored the report that labour ministry said retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 3.86 per cent in May compared to 4.42 per cent in the same month a year ago. Besides, State Bank of India (SBI) report showed that between FY14 and FY23, India generated 125 million jobs, which is 4.3 times more than the preceding decadal period of FY04-FY14. The partially...
Rupee weakens against US dollar on Thursday
The dollar fell a touch on Thursday although moves were largely subdued ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, while sterling firmed on receding expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE). The British pound rose to a one-month high of $1.28545 in early Asia trade, extending a 0.48% gain from the previous session after comments from BoE policymakers caused markets to scale back bets for an easing cycle to begin next month. BoE Chief Economist Huw P...
Dollar adrift ahead of US inflation test; sterling firms
The Indian rupee is poised to open marginally higher on Thursday, in the wake of an uptick on Asian peers before data that may be key to the Federal Reserve cutting or holding rates at its September meeting. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.48-83.50 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.52 in the previous session. Asian currencies rose 0.1% to 0.4% and the dollar index held below the 105 handle. The offshore Chinese yuan was quoting at 7.2870 to the dollar, havi...
Rupee to inch up before US inflation print, tracking Asian peers
The Indian rupee ended marginally lower on Wednesday due to slight pressure from importers' dollar bids, but was stuck in a narrow range for most of the session amid mostly quiet price action in its Asian peers. The rupee closed at 83.52 against the U.S. dollar, slightly weaker than its close of 83.4850 in the previous session. The currency hovered between 83.4825 and 83.5225 during the day's session. Dollar bids from importers, including local oil companies, and foreign bank...
Rupee ends tad lower after hovering in narrow band; forward premiums slip
The dollar traded near three-week lows on Wednesday as a cautious tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept risk sentiment in check, while the New Zealand dollar fell after the country's central bank signaled it saw potential for rate cuts. In the first day of his testimony to Congress overnight, Powell said a rate cut is not appropriate until the Fed gains "greater confidence" that inflation is headed toward the 2% target, setting the stage for Thursday's consum...
Dollar dithers on Powell caution; kiwi droops after RBNZ rate hint
The dollar was on the front foot on Wednesday, having rebounded from a three-week low, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on how soon U.S. interest rate cuts would come. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the central bank expressed confidence that inflation would return to its target band this year, spurring bets for early policy easing. In the first day of his testimony to Congress overnight, Powell said a rate cut is not appropriate until the Fed gains...
Dollar firms on Powell caution; kiwi eases after dovish cenbank
The jump in open interest on rupee/dollar currency futures on the Singapore Exchange indicates that investors are shifting their arbitrage and hedging activity to the city-state after the Indian central bank imposed restrictions on local currency futures, traders said. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT The Reserve Bank of India has been seeking to increase the volume of rupee derivatives traded in the local market relative to offshore, which helps them have more control over the currency. Howev...
Investors shift to Singapore after Indian central bank`s curbs on local rupee futures
Indian rupee strengthened marginally against the US dollar on Tuesday on account of muted dollar in the overseas markets. Meanwhile, foreign fund inflows, firm domestic equities and easing crude oil prices have also supported the rupee. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 60.98 crore, exchange data showed. But investors are cautiously awaiting US CPI data to be released on Thursday, which is key to gauge on Federa...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Tuesday
The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday from its lowest levels in almost a month versus major peers in the previous session, as traders awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell days after an unexpectedly soft U.S. jobs report. The euro held its ground after Monday's sharp swings as investors came to terms with a hung parliament in France, which points to a potential political gridlock, but lessens fiscal concerns stemming from outright far-right or leftist victories. ...
Dollar inches up ahead of Powell testimony; euro steady after French vote
The Indian rupee closed nearly flat on Tuesday, tracking largely subdued price action in its Asian peers, as investors awaited comments from the Federal Reserve Chair for cues on the future path of U.S. interest rates. The rupee ended at 83.4850 against the U.S. dollar, barely changed from its close at 83.4925 in the previous session. Indian state-run banks were "active on both sides," like on Monday, which along with mostly quiet price action in Asian currencies, kept the rup...
Rupee ends flat, tracking rangebound Asian peers; Powell's testimony in focus
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, as crude oil prices retreated from their elevated levels amid the prospect of a ceasefire deal in Gaza eased geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Moreover, foreign fund inflows and hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year also aided rupee sentiments. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,241.33 crore, exchange d...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar on Monday
The Indian rupee is likely to nudge higher on Monday, supported by a rise in expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin to ease policy rates in September but weakness in the Chinese yuan may limit the local currency's gains. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open flat or slightly higher against the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.4850 in the previous session. The rupee is likely to "trend sideways around 83.45 with a slightly positive bias", a foreig...
Rupee aided by growing Fed rate cut hopes, yuan slip may limit gains
Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, due to retreat in American currency and as signs of slowing US economy heightened the expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates sometime soon. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting US nonfarm payrolls data to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. Moreover, significant foreign fund inflows also supported rupee sentiments. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in ...
Rupee strengthens against US dollar in early trade on Friday
The Indian rupee was slightly stronger on Friday as most of its Asian peers rose heading into a closely watched U.S. jobs report later in the day, which is expected to influence expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start easing rates. The rupee was at 83.4625 against the U.S. dollar as of 09:40 a.m. IST, marginally higher than its previous close at 83.4925. The dollar index fell to its lowest in three weeks in Asia trading and was last down 0.1% at 105. Broad dollar weakness he...
Rupee inches higher tracking gains in most Asian peers
The U.S. dollar was hovering near three-week lows on Friday ahead of payrolls data that will likely influence the outlook for rates, while the pound was firm as the Labour party looked set to win a massive majority in the UK general election. Sterling was last at $1.27575, little changed in early trading and not far off a three-week high of $1.27765 touched on Wednesday. It is up 0.9% for the week, its best weekly performance since mid-May and remains the strongest-performing major curr...
Dollar at three-week lows; pound takes UK election in stride
Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar on Thursday, driven by elevated crude oil prices. However, foreign fund inflows into capital market, firm domestic equities, weakness in American currency overseas and US Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, have limited further falls in rupee. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 5,483.63 crore, exchange data showed. Meanwhile investors are now awaiting minute...
Rupee weakens against US dollar on Thursday
The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Thursday after weak U.S. services and labor data prompted a drop in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, spurring a recovery in Asian currencies. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.50 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.53 in the previous session. The dollar index dropped on Wednesday and dipped further during Asian hours. Asian currencies, which have broadly been under pressure, recovered on the day. The ...
Rupee to inch up on relief for Asia FX after weak US data
The Indian rupee will trade within the narrowest range in nearly three decades over the coming year as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to maintain its tight grip on the currency's movements, according to a Reuters poll. While most emerging market currencies fared badly against the dollar in the past two years, the rupee has stayed remarkably stable due to the RBI's nearly $650 billion forex reserves which it has deployed regularly to curb volatility. The currency's...
Rupee to trade in narrowest range in about 30 years on RBI`s actions
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