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Published on 10-04-2026 10:28 am

Our constructive bias is based on following observations:

a) Historically, since 1996, there have been only 4 occasions where index has given a monthly negative close for more than 4 months in a row, post which index has staged a strong recovery in subsequent quarters. Currently, index corrected over 4 consecutive months

b) Such intermediate correction got arrested in the vicinity of long term 200 weeks EMA (barring 2001,2008, 2020), currently placed at 21930

c) Over past 25 years, there have been 8 occasions where bull market correction got arrested within 15-20% range with an average correction of 17%.

d) With the 16% decline (off Feb high of 26341), Nifty has hauled monthly stochastic oscillator in oversold territory (placed at 20). Further, the divergence on the daily chart.

e) On the Bank Nifty front, since Covid there have been six major correction which anchored around 20-22%. With 19% correction already in place amid oversold conditions, indicating that the downside approaching maturity, in line with historical corrective cycles.

f) In case of geopolitical events, past four decades data suggest that price wise median correction matures around 11%. Buying during such a panic scenario has garnered >25% returns in next 6 months.

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Published on 10-04-2026 10:27 am

Technical Outlook:

* Index opened on a negative note and witnessed profit booking around 24000 zone coinciding with previous session high. The daily price action resulted into bear candle with wicks on both ends, indicating breather after recent sharp upmove.

* Key highlight is over the past 4 session index has witnessed a sharp rally of 1800 points backed by de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts which has pushed daily stochastic oscillator into overbought zone. Thereby temporary breather at higher levels cannot be ruled out amid overbought conditions, that will eventually make market healthy and set the stage for the next leg of upmove towards 24800 in the coming weeks as it is confluence of 200 days EMA coincided with 61.8% retracement of Feb-April decline (26341- 22182).

* In the process stock specific action and volatility cannot be ruled out ahead of Q4 earning seasons. Therefore, any decline from current level should be utilized as a buying opportunity in stocks with strong Q4 earnings, deescalation of geopolitical conflict and cool-off in crude oil prices as strong support is placed around 23000 being 50% retracement of current pullback (22182-24025) coincided with last week’s high (22941) which would act as immediate support as per change of polarity concept.

* Nifty staged a strong recovery after 16% correction which hauled most of the momentum, sentiment as well as breadth indicators in bearish extreme readings. Historically, these oversold conditions have offered good entry opportunity for constructing medium-to-long-term portfolios. Hence, accumulating quality stock on dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt

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Published on 10-04-2026 10:25 am

Nifty :23775

The equity benchmark witnessed profit booking and closed on a negative note to settle at 23775 down 223 points. Market breadth was flat with a A/D ratio of 1:1. Broader markets has relatively outperformed the benchmark with Nifty Mid and Smallcap gained 0.20% each. Sectorally Metals, Pharma, IT were the top gainers while BFSI, Auto and Realty witnessed profit booking

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Published on 10-04-2026 10:24 am

Nifty opened with a downward gap and selling pressure throughout the session dragged it lower to end negative . Nifty closed at 23775 with a loss of 222 points. On the daily chart the index has formed a small Bearish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 24050 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 24300-24400 levels. Important Supports for the day is around 23680 However if index sustains below 23680 then it may witness profit booking which would take the index towards 23600-23500 levels.

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Published on 10-04-2026 10:23 am

Nifty

The Nifty witnessed profit booking pressure near the 24000 mark, slipping below its previous day’s swing low and closing beneath it, indicating near-term weakness. The immediate resistance is now placed at 24225 (50 DEMA), followed by a key gap resistance around 24415. This zone may be difficult to surpass unless crude oil prices soften below the $88 level on a sustained basis. A decisive close above the 24000 CE OI cluster would signal potential for renewed short-covering, which could push the index towards the 24200 zone. On the downside, the 20 DEMA at 23450 is expected to act as immediate support. However, macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on sentiment. Elevated USD/INR levels, firm crude prices above $90, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions may keep any pullbacks vulnerable. Traders are advised to remain cautious in the 24230–24420 zone, consider profit booking at higher levels, and look for re-entry opportunities on dips. The broader structure remains constructive as long as the index sustains above 22630 during the current series.

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