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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 5:32:15 PM

Below are Indian shares opened on a negative note tracking weakness in other markets By Mr. Keshav Lahoti, Associate Equity Analyst, Angel Broking Ltd

“Indian shares opened on a negative note tracking weakness in other markets and worries over new pandemic restrictions in China. Correction increased during the day and the market closed down by 1.5%. Correction was all across the sectors except Auto and IT sectors which so far have delivered numbers above street expectation. On the other hand, BFSI sectors have reported numbers below street expectation. Bajaj Auto closed up by 10.4% as it posted the highest ever profit-after-tax for a quarter. Bandhan Bank closed down by 7.8% on reporting a 13 percent fall in Q3 net profit on higher provisions. Due to weak quarterly numbers by banking companies, Nifty Bank closed down by 3.2%. Global cues were weak: Dow Futures, Nasdaq Futures and FTSE were down 0.8%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.”

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 12:47:03 PM

Nifty Bank Outlook - (32187)

US markets were cheerful previous night so as yesterday morning (Dow Futures) after the oath taking ceremony of Joe Biden as 46th US President. This clearly had a rub off effect on our markets as well. BANKNIFTY started the session higher and then extended gains to clock fresh record high of 32842.30 at the midsession. However, all of a sudden the selling augmented in the market after 2 pm to not only pare down all gains but also to close well inside the negative territory.

BANKNIFTY was enjoying its northward move in the first half and everything looked hunky dory until the nosedive started in last one and half hours of trade. It is hard to gauge what triggered this sell off but probably it started after the disappointing set of numbers from Bandhan Bank. May be it’s just a broad based profit booking that coincided around the same time on the weekly expiry day.

Reason could be anything, but as mentioned in our previous commentary, 32700-33000 is to be seen as strong resistance and yesterday’s sell off exactly triggered after entering this zone. Since we can observe 3-points negative divergence in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ in all major indices, one should avoid aggressive longs. On the lower side, 32000 can be considered as key support, below which we may see some extended correction

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 12:46:48 PM

Sensex (49625) / Nifty (14590)

The Nifty index opened on a positive note and surpassed the 14750 mark for the first time. It consolidated at higher level for most part of the session, however, the indices corrected sharply after 2 pm and Nifty ended the day tad below 14600.

During most part of the day, the indices were trading on a positive note and the Nifty even marked a high over 14750. However, the weekly expiry session resulted in some serious profit booking in the later half and both Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty not only wiped out its morning gains, but ended the session in the red.

On the daily chart of Nifty, we can observe a negative divergence between price and the RSI oscillator as the price has surpassed the recent swing high and has made a ‘Higher High’, but the RSI has made a ‘Lower High’ in the same time frame. This divergence, and the profit booking that we saw in the broader markets in the later half yesterday indicates that although the trend is positive, one should look out to book profits on the long positions and avoid aggressive positions for time being.

The Banking index has consolidated within a range of 32860-31690 in last few sessions, and a breakout beyond this range could then lead to a directional move in this space which could drive the momentum in Nifty as well.

Also, the Midcap index is trading at a crucial juncture around the resistance as per Fibonacci ratios. Hence, until we see a follow up buying above this week’s high, some bouts of profit booking could be seen in this space too. Hence, we continue with our advice for traders to look for stock specific trading opportunities and also focus on timely exits on trading positions. As far as levels are concerned, the supports for Nifty are placed around 14500 and 14410 whereas resistance is seen in the range of 14700-14750

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 21/01/2021 3:02:08 PM

Below are Quote on Sensex all time high By Mr. Jyoti Roy - DVP- Equity Strategist, Angel Broking Ltd

The Nifty has hit levels of 50,000 on the back of strong global cues post inauguration of Joe Biden as the new president of the US. We expect global cues to remain strong in the near future which will lead to global flows remaining strong over the near term. Markets will also look to  the Union Budget on the 1st of February and the ongoing Q3FY2021 results season for further cues. However valuations at current levels are expensive with the Senses trading at P/E multiples of  ~21xFY2022 EPS estimates. While the markets may be expensive at current levels we believe that India equities will command a premium given that we are still in the early part of an earnings recovery cycle where multiples tend to be higher. However if we look at the markets on an FY2023 basis then valuations appear to be more reasonable at ~17.5x. Moreover we believe that liquidity will keep coming into India given zero interest rates in developed countries and continued monetary stimulus by the central banks globally. Therefore we continue to remain positive on the Nifty from a medium to long term perspective despite any possible short term volatility in the markets. Corrections if any are likely to be short lived and should be used as an opportunity to buy into the market from a long term perspective.

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 21/01/2021 11:29:47 AM

Nifty Bank Outlook - (32544)

The banking index too opened flat along with the benchmark index. However as the day progressed, we witnessed good buying momentum in Nifty; courtesy to some of the heavyweights like, RIL, HDFC, IT and Auto counters. The BANKNIFTY too extended its gains a bit; but relatively it underperformed the benchmark index.

For the major part of the day, BANKNIFTY remained in a consolidation mode to add nearly four tenths of a percent gains. Monday’s corrective move has completely been engulfed and markets are trading in a positive territory for the week. Yes, the sentiments across the globe continues to be optimistic and no negative development is as good as a positive trigger for the market. Hence, we are seeing good buying momentum in last couple of days.

However, for BANKNIFTY 32700-33000 remains to be a strong resistance and till the time it’s not crossed, 32700 – 32000 remains to be an immediate range. Let see how things pan out on the penultimate weekly expiry day. Traders are advised not to get carried away and should stay light on positions.

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 21/01/2021 11:29:36 AM

Sensex (49792) / Nifty (14645)

The Nifty index opened on a flat note and gradually moved higher during the day to register new highs. In just a couple of sessions, the index recovered all its losses of the recent correction and has ended the day tad below 14650. The index continued its previous day’s upmove yesterday supported mainly by the IT heavyweights. The Auto stocks and the heavyweight Reliance Industries too contributed and participated in the upmove.

Although, the Banking index consolidated in a range yesterday and relatively underperformed the Nifty as no significant momentum was seen in the private sector banking stocks. If we look at the recent chart of Nifty on the daily time-frame, it is seen that the 20-day EMA has acted as a support on intermediate declines and the index has continued its ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom’ structure. With last two days of upmove, this moving average support now coincides with Monday’s low of 14222 and thus, it now becomes a sacrosanct for the short term.

Apart from this, the Nifty Midcap index had seen some correction from its important level as per the retracement theory and hence, it would be crucial to see if this index surpasses its swing high with an ease. In case the midcap index does not break this hurdle, then we could see some volatility again in the short term and hence, traders should keep a close tab on this index.

Meanwhile, we continue with our advice for traders to keep focusing on stock specific moves and identify the sectors which are showing momentum on a given day. Traders should also avoid taking leverage positions at this juncture and focus on timely exits on the trading positions. The intraday supports in Nifty for the coming session are placed around 14535 and 14490 whereas resistances are seen around 14710 and 14770.

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