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Published on 15-09-2025 11:26 am

Nifty Bank : 54809

Technical Outlook

Week that was:

Bank Nifty extended its positive momentum for second consecutive week and settled at 54,809 up 1.28%. Nifty PSU Bank index has relatively outperformed the benchmark, ending the week positive at 7057 up 2.94%.

Technical Outlook:

* Bank nifty opened the week on a firm note and sustained followthrough buying demand above the previous week’s high. Consequently, the index formed a bullish weekly candle carrying a higher-high -low formation, signaling continuation of positive momentum and paving the way for further upside in the near term.

* Key point to highlight is that index has sustained above the recent upside gaps and managed a close above the 20-day EMA after 16 sessions, signaling revival in uptrend. In the coming week, any positive outcome from the US fed policy meeting along with tariff negotiation could act as a trigger, driving the index towards its previous swing high of 55,900. On the momentum front, weekly stochastic oscillator has witnessed bullish crossover from the oversold territory, with reading of 22, reflecting continuation of current upward momentum. Hence, any decline from current level should be viewed as a buying opportunity with an immediate strong support is placed at 53600 being 200-day EMA.

* Structurally, Since Dec-22 the intermediate correction within channelized move has been arrested within 10%. While buying near 52 weeks EMA has been fruitful over next 8 months. With current 7% correction Bank Nifty approached 52 weeks EMA, suggesting index is approaching price wise correction amid oversold condition that augurs well for impending pullback. Hence, immediate strong support is placed near the 200-day EMA placed at 53600.

* PSU Bank Index has relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed on a positive note. After initial gains Index has witnessed profit booking near its previous swing high near 7149, indicating breather after a strong up move, however, immediate support is placed near the rising trendline, aligning with the 50-day EMA (6935). Furthermore, the index continues to trade well above its previous multiple swing low support which coincides with the 200-day EMA placed near 6700, signals a broader uptrend is still intact.

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Published on 15-09-2025 11:26 am

Nifty :25114

Technical Outlook

Week that was…

Equity benchmark extended gains over second consecutive week and settled at 25114, up 1.5%. Nifty midcap and small cap relatively outperformed the benchmark by gaining ~2%, each. Beaten down sectors like IT, Defence, PSU Banks staged a strong rebound while Consumer Discretionary took a breather.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty started the week on a positive note, where buying demand emerged in the vicinity of 20/50-day EMA making higher-low formation. As a result, the weekly price action formed bull candle indicating, continuation of the upward momentum.

* Key point to highlight is that, the follow through strength in index on the back of GST Reforms supported by positive development on Tariff negotiations and buoyancy in global markets (as rate cut expectations in upcoming US Fed meet) boosted market sentiments. That in turn helped index to head towards upper band of contracting pattern (25100-24400).

* Going ahead, the formation of higher high-low back by improvement in market breadth makes us confident that Index will log a resolute breakout from contracting triangle (25100-24400). Further, positive outcome from US Fed meets as well as US Tariff negations would fuel the momentum to drive Nifty towards 25800 in coming months. Meanwhile, strong base of 24400 would continue to act as key support threshold.

* On the sectoral front, key index heavy weights like Bank Nifty and IT (carrying 45% weightage in Nifty) are getting ready for next leg of up move. Since December 2022, Bank Nifty is trading in a channelised move wherein the intermediate correction are getting arrested within 10% (average). While history suggest that, buying Bank Nifty near 52 weeks EMA has been fruitful over next 8 months. With current 7% correction, Bank Nifty approached 52 weeks EMA, suggesting index is approaching price wise maturity of correction amid oversold condition that augurs well for impending pullback. Meanwhile, Nifty IT index past 10 years data suggest that 35% correction offers incremental buying opportunity. With current 33% correction along with improvement in global macros (rate cut) would help index to revive upward momentum. Thereby offering favourable risk reward setup.

* On the market breadth front, the % of stocks above 50 days SMA have once again maintained the rhythm of bouncing from bullish support zone of 25%. The current jump to 48% clearly signifies broadening of market participation. On the broader market front, both Nifty Midcap and small cap have bounced from the vicinity of 52-week EMA amid oversold conditions, indicating an incremental buying opportunity from medium term perspective.

* Key monitorable:

* a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

* b) Breakdown from one year falling trend line in US 10 Year Bond Yield along with Dollar index below 98 augurs well for emerging markets.

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Published on 15-09-2025 11:05 am

Markets Are Pricing In A 25-basis-point Rate Cut By FOMC

All major US indices posted strong weekly gains; the Nasdaq rose 2.0%, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, and the Dow advanced 1.0%, marking the best week since early August.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 closed near all-time highs, fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this Wednesday following softer economic data. Market breadth remains narrow with megacaps dominating, while small- and mid-caps lag behind.

U.S. markets are pricing in a 96.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, with additional cuts expected through year-end. Softer labour data and persistent inflation support the dovish shift, boosting demand for equities and cryptocurrencies.

Indian equity markets finished on a buoyant note as the Nifty 50 notched its eighth consecutive advance, closing above the symbolic 25,100 mark for the first time since July—its longest winning streak in a year and the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months.

Indian market sentiment was bolstered by renewed diplomatic momentum between the Indian and US leadership, as well as improving domestic liquidity conditions. Nifty has been gradually taking out the crucial resistances and getting stronger on the charts. On the weekly line charts, the Nifty has confirmed a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms, which is an encouraging sign for a sustained positional bullish trend.

The Nifty now seems to be heading towards the next resistance of 25,250, while the 24,900 level could offer support on the lower side.

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Published on 15-09-2025 11:02 am

Global News

* China’s housing slump deepens as August home prices fall again, with recovery now seen only by 2026–27: China’s housing market remained weak in August as new home prices fell 0.3% month-on-month, matching July’s decline and extending the downtrend since May 2023, despite repeated policy support. Of 70 cities, 57 reported monthly price drops, while 65 saw year-on-year declines, with resale prices also slipping down 3.5% in tier-one cities, 5.2% in tier-two, and 6% in tier-three. Property investment plunged 12.9% year-on-year in January–August, and sales by floor area fell 4.7%. Analysts now expect home prices to stabilise only by late 2026 or 2027, later than earlier forecasts, citing weak income growth, high unemployment, and oversupply in smaller cities. While Shanghai and Shenzhen eased purchase curbs to revive demand, the central government has reiterated calls to stabilise the sector, with Premier Li Qiang urging “forceful measures” to support housing upgrades and market recovery

Government Security Market:

* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.75%- 5.50% on Friday ended at 5.00% .

* The 10 year benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) closed at 6.4867% on Friday Vs 6.4666% on Thursday

Global Debt Market:

Treasury yields edged higher on Friday morning, rebounding from moves seen in Thursday’s session. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was around 2 basis points higher by 3:50 a.m. ET, trading at 4.036%. On Thursday, it fell by 4 basis points to touch on the 4% level after data prints showed prices were rising while the labor market was weaker than anticipated. The yield on the 5-year Treasury gained 3 basis points on Friday morning, while 30-year Treasury yields rose by 1 basis point. The U.S. consumer price index rose to 2.9% on an annual basis in August, data showed on Thursday, with the CPI notching its biggest monthly jump since January. Annual core inflation — more closely watched by Fed officials rose to 3.1%. The Federal Reserve’s inflation target is 2%. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported a higher-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims, with unemployment compensation filings hitting their highest level since Oct. 2021.“The latest set of economic numbers likely creates some additional complications for FOMC policymakers as they contemplate their decision-making ahead of the 16-17 September FOMC meeting,” Ryan Wang, U.S. economist at HSBC, said in a Friday note.“ With some apparent tension between the two sides of the Committee’s dual mandate — inflation and employment — we expect the outcome at the meeting itself will be a 25bp reduction in the federal funds target range to 4.00-4.25%. But the full range of new economic projections released at the meeting are likely to reveal some differences in views in terms of which side of the mandate individual FOMC policymakers are more focused on,” he said.

10 Year Benchmark Technical View :

The 10 year Benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.4750% to 6.4950% level on Monday.

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Published on 15-09-2025 11:02 am

Economic News

* Economists lower India inflation forecasts despite August uptick; GST reforms supportive: Retail inflation saw a slight increase in August, reaching 2.07%, but experts believe this is temporary. Economists attribute the manageable inflation to effective GST reforms and anticipate further declines. Projections for FY26 have been revised downwards, with some expecting the RBI to consider additional repo rate cuts, while others remain cautious about immediate easing.

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