Perspective on CPI numbers: High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
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Below is Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist | Emkay Global Financial Services
High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well. However, global commodities (ex-energy) on an average are easing, which, if sustained, should act as a moderating influence on headline inflation. But watch out for near-term offsetting factors which may come from food owing to unseasonal rains, sticky motor fuel prices, and higher kerosene prices, INR weakness etc. With domestic demand fairly resilient so far, core CPI pressures may remain reasonably sticky in near-term sequentially. That said, lower imported inflation on net and base effect should directionally still imply lower inflation on YoY basis in 2HFY23 vs 1HFY23. But This will unlikely to derail the RBI's tightening path as inflation still remains elevated.
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