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Published on 20/01/2021 10:44:03 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 20 January 2021 - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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SPICES

* Jeera March futures on NCDEX slipped on Tuesday, shedding more than one per cent on subdued export demand.

* According to the second advance estimates released by the Gujarat’s farm department, production in jeera is expected to be at 373700 tonnes in 2020-21 compared to 375420 tonnes produced last year (2019-20).

* According to Gujarat's farm department, as of 28 Dec2020, jeera has been sown across 464469 hectares in state, compared to 435657 hectares sown during the same period last year.

* Spices Board pegs Apr-Sep jeera exports at 153000 tonnes, up by 33 per cent on yoy basis.

* Exports of jeera were at 210,000 tn, up 16% from 180,300 tn in 2018-19 according to the Spices Board.

* Coriander April futures on NCDEX stretched losses on Tuesday on rise in arrivals amidst expectation of rise in production in one of the key coriander growing state of Gujarat.

* Coriander production in Gujarat is expected to rise 55 per cent to 216680 tonnes in 2020-21 season (Jul-Jun) due to sharp rise in acreage according to the state’s farm department’s second advance estimates.

* As of Dec 28, 2020 coriander has been sown across 135563 hectares compared to 76904 hectares sown during the same period last year showed the data from the Gujarat state farm department.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports for the Apr-Sep period this year is seen at 26750 tonnes, up by nine per cent on yoy basis.

* Coriander exports from India were up 3% on year at 50,250 tn in the last financial year according to the Spices Board.

* Turmeric April futures on NCDEX stretched gains on Tuesday on firm demand and fall in arrivals in the spot market.

* Spices Board pegs turmeric export from India for the period Apr-Sep this year at 99000 tonnes, up by 42 per cent year on.

* India exported 136,000 tn of turmeric in 2019-20, up 2% on year according to the Spices Board.

 

OILSEED

* All commodities, except mustard seed in the edible complex fell yesterday. MCX Jan CPO trimmed off previous day’s gains and fell nearly three percent tracking weakness in BMD Malaysian palm oil on reports of poor export demand coupled with restrictions imposed in Malaysia after spreading of Covid 19 virus. Feb Soy oil prices extended selloffs as reports of government planning to slash import duty of edible oil to curb spiraling prices along with reports of higher imports to India. NCDEX Feb soybean settled lower tracking weakness in U.S CBOT soybean prices. Feb mustard seed traded higher on back of improved demand for mustard meal.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global oilseed production in 2020-21 to 594.5 mln tn from 595.7 mln tn projected in December. Higher production of sunflower seed would largely be offset by lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and palm kernel output. The sunflower seed production estimate for Russia has been increased by 0.5 mln tn to 13.5 mln tn, based on recent government estimates. In its report for January, the agency has also slashed its estimate for closing stocks of oilseeds to 96.5 mln tn from 97.8 mln tn projected the previous month.Global oilseed trade in 2020-21 is projected at 192.7 mln tn, against 191.8 mln tn in the agency's previous estimate.It has scaled down its forecast for global soybean crop to 361.0 mln tn against 362.1 mln tn projected in December. "Higher soybean crops for Canada and Uruguay are offset by lower production for Argentina, which has reduced 1 mln tn to 50 mln on lower harvested area," the report said. Lower soybean output in Argentina, the third-largest producer, brings down the country's crush and soymeal exports. This, in turn, supports the US' soybean exports, the agency said. It has forecast overall soybean output in the US in 2020-21 at 112.6 mln tn, against 113.5 mln tn projected the previous month, owing to lower cottonseed production. The estimate for Argentina's soybean output has been slashed by 2 mln tn to 48 mln tn.

* Soymeal exports were at 251,221 tn in December against 72,233 tn a year ago, while in Apr-Dec, soymeal exports were at 888,202 tn compared with 569,349 tn a year ago, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Mustard meal exports in Apr-Dec were at 141,866 tn, up around 136% from a year ago.

* India's vegetable oil imports rose over 20% on year to around 1.35 mln tn in December, according to SEA.

* India's soymeal exports in December jumped nearly three-fold on year to 268,000 tn, data from The Soybean Processors Association of India showed. Soymeal exports in December a year ago were at 90,000 tn.

* As on Dec 31, farmers, processors, stockists and state-run agencies had around 400,000 tn stock, compared with nearly 1.2 mln tn a year ago, according to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

* Farmers in the country have sown mustard across 7.3 mln ha, up 7.1% on year, in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season as of Thursday, data from the farm ministry showed.

* Indian government slashed import duty of crude palm oil. The government cut import duty on crude palm oil by 10% to 27.5%, in the last week, to cool off soaring edible oil prices in domestic markets.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. The area under soybean across the country rose 6.4% on year to 12.12 mln ha as of 24th Sep, according to data from the farm ministry. The Union Cabinet approved a hike in minimum support price for 14 major kharif crops. MSP for soybean hiked by Rs.170 to 3880 from 3710 per 100 kg. Soybean output is estimated at 12.2 mln tn in 2019-20, according to the farm ministry's fourth advance estimate.

* India is likely to grow a record 10 mln tn mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), mainly due to the likelihood of a sharp rise in acreage, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The government has targeted an alltime high crop of 12.5 mln tn for this rabi season. The government has fixed the minimum support price at 4,650 rupees per 100 kg for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) marketing season against 4,425 rupees per 100 kg the previous year.

* According to the first advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.7 mln tn compared with 1.8 mln tn in the fourth advance estimates for 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry. While, according to traders, crop is seen at 1.5-1.6 mln tn. Farmers have sown castor seed across 792,000 ha in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), down 16% from a year ago.

* India's castor oil exports jumped 41.6% on year to 53,007 tn in September, according to data from Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The exports have surged 28% from 41,408 tn in August. India's castor meal exports plunged by 26% on year to 54,885 tn in October from 73,832 tonnes, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Moreover, overall export of oil meals during Apr-Oct plunged 43% on year to 382,238 tn.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output plunged 10.6% on month to 1.33 mln tn in December, data from Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Total palm oil stock in the country fell 19.0% on month to 1.26 mln tn. Exports of palm oil in December rose 24.7% on month at 1.62 mln tn and those of biodiesel rose 111.3% on month to 42,913 tn.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports during Jan 1-15 are estimated to have fallen 44.4% on month to 403,255 tn, according to cargo surveyor SGS data.

 

COTTON

* The USDA has scaled down its estimate for global cotton output for 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 112.9 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 113.9 mln bales pegged in December. The downward revision in output estimate is mainly due to a fall in production in the US. The agency has cut its estimate for output in the US to 14.95 mln bales, compared with 15.95 mln bales projected a month ago. Global cotton consumption is seen at 115.7 mln tn, marginally higher from 115.6 mln bales pegged last month. Exports are now seen at 43.6 mln bales, compared with 43.2 mln bales, while ending stocks are seen lower at 96.3 mln bales, compared with 97.5 mln bales. The agency retained its crop estimates for India at 29.5 mln bales. India’s exports for the current season is pegged at 5.0 mln bales. Domestic demand is seen at 24.0 mln bales steady from previous month. Ending stock for the ongoing season is seen at 19.4 mln bales.

* Cotton production in Gujarat is likely to fall 14% to 7.4 mln bales in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) due to a sharp decline in acreage, according to the state farm department's second advance estimate. Cotton acreage in Gujarat is at 2.28 mln ha in the current season against 2.65 mln ha last year. The decline in acreage is mainly due to the shift to other lucrative crops like groundnut.

* The Cotton Association of India has marginally scaled up its estimate for production to 35.9 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) for the ongoing 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) season, from 35.6 mln bales projected in the previous month. In 2019-20, the association had pegged the crop at 36.0 mln bales. The association has maintained its estimate for exports to 5.4 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) for the ongoing 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) season. In the current marketing year, India has shipped around 2.0 mln bales up to December. Domestic consumption is estimated at 33.0 mln bales in 2020-21, while imports are pegged at 1.4 mln bales. Ending stocks in the country for the 2020-21 season are seen at 11.4 mln bales.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has further cut its estimate for global output in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 24.0 mln tn from 24.2 mln tn projected in November in its December report. The fall in output estimate is largely due to a reduction in production in India and the US. A slight increase in production is seen in Australia. The agency has scaled down its crop estimate for India to 6.21 mln tn for the ongoing season, from 6.29 mln tn projected a month ago. Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is seen at 24.3 mln tn, against 24.2 mln tn projected the previous month. Consumption is seen higher on likely rise in demand from India. Ending stocks of the fibre for 2020-21 are seen at 325,000 tn, against 57,000 tn projected last month.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled down its global output estimate for 2020-21 (AugJul) to 24.7 mln tn in its December report from 25.0 mln tn projected in the previous month. The fall in output estimate has largely been attributed to a smaller crop in the US, Brazil, and Pakistan. Production in India is expected at 6.20 mln tn, compared with 6.07 mln tn projected in the previous year. China is likely to produce 5.9 mln tn, while production in the US is expected to fall to 3.7 mln tn in the ongoing season. The committee has marginally scaled down its estimate for global consumption in 2020-21 to 24.3 mln tn as many countries enter fresh lockdowns because of COVID-19. Ending stock is estimated at 21.7 mln tn against 22.4 mln tn, projected a month ago. The committee has revised upward its estimate for global cotton exports for the ongoing season to 9.4 mln tn from 9.3 mln tn projected in the previous month.

* Global cotton prices will likely average higher on a year-on-year basis in 2021 amid a broader and deeper economic recovery, Fitch Solutions says in a note. It is forecasting cotton prices to average 70c a pound in 2021. Lower global supply in 2020/21 coupled with the sharp uptick in China's import demand will keep prices supported.

* The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate for global cotton output for 2020-21 to 116.1 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 116.3 mln bales projected in October. The agency has retained its output estimate for India at 30.0 mln bales. India is the world largest producer of cotton. The agency maintained its estimates for India's cotton exports and ending stocks at 5.0 mln bales and 20.9 mln bales, respectively. Domestic demand is seen steady at 23.0 mln bales. Globally, the output is likely to fall as production is expected to decline in Pakistan. Global cotton consumption is seen at 114.1 mln tn, marginally down from 114.2 mln bales projected last month. Global exports for 2020-21 are now seen at 42.9 mln bales, compared with 42.2 mln bales estimated a month ago. Ending stocks are seen higher at 101.4 mln bales against 101.1 mln bales, the report said. The agency has kept its estimate for output in the US largely steady at 17.09 mln bales.

* The much awaited and long delayed export agreement between Cotton Corp of India and Bangladesh government is now in its final stage and may materialise by December, said Pradeep Agarwal, chairman and managing director of the organisation.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. Farmers have sown cotton across 13.04 mln ha in the 2020-21 (JulJun) season, up by 2.1% from a year ago, as of 25th Sept., farm ministry.

* India's cotton output in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing year is seen at 38.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% on year, according to traders.Govt pegs 2020-21 cotton crop at 37.1 mln bales vs 35.5 mln bales.

* Cotton production in Gujarat is likely to fall by 6% to 8.2 mln bales in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) due to a sharp fall in acreage, according to the first advance estimates released by the state's farm department. Cotton acreage in Gujarat is down at 2.28 mln ha in the current season compared with 2.65 mln ha last year. The fall in sowing area is mainly due to the shift to other lucrative crops like groundnut.

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln.

* India's cotton exports are expected to touch 6.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in the current marketing year 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) due to strong demand and lower domestic prices, which have made foreign sales economically viable, trade officials said.

* The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees. AGRIDEX NCDEX As prices unable to move above the recent high of 1162, sentiments turned bearish and expect to see continuation of selling pressure towards 1140/1130 levels. KAPAS NCDEX APR21 Inability to move above 1200 could see selloffs to 1180/1175 levels. COTTON MCX JAN As long as prices stays above 20950 could see pullbacks to 21250 levels. Else, could see selling pressure. COCUDAKL NCDEX FEB A trend line support is seen at 1970 which if breaks could see downfall to 1950/1920 levels. Else, could see choppy trading session. TECHNICAL VIEW Agri Picks, 20.01.2021 OTHERS Market Buzz

* Chana March futures on NCDEX varied in thin ranges

 

OTHERS

* Chana March futures on NCDEX varied in thin ranges though it managed to end the session marginally up.

* Farmers in the country have sown rabi chana across 10.9 million hectares so far, up 3.5 per cent compared to same period last year , farm ministry data showed.

* The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has offered discount of 5-10% on chana produced in the 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) rabi season, and subsequently procured by the agency at the minimum support price for that year, according to its website.

* The government raised chana MSP by Rs.225 to Rs.5100/100kg.

* According to the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India’s guar gum export for the Apr-Oct period this year was 126808 tonnes compared to 256236tonnes during the corresponding period last year.

* India’s guar gum exports fell in the month of November 2020 by 6% to 13414 tonnes compared to 14,331 tonnes during October 2020 at an average FoB of US $ 1611 per tonne in the month of November compared to US $ 1785 per tonne in the month of October 2020. However, the gum shipments were down 30% in November 2020 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 3,639 tonnes is bought US, Russia (2,914 tonnes) and Germany (1,188 tonnes).

* India’s guar split exports improved in the month of November 2020 by 33% to 4557 tonnes compared to 3,438 tonnes during October 2020 at an average FoB of US $ 1,390 per tonne in the month of November compared to US $ 1,408 per tonne in the month of October 2020. Further, the guar split shipments were up 286% in November 2020 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 1,152 tonnes is bought US, China (1,940 tonnes) and UK (4,84 tonnes).

* Steady moves were witnessed in the local natural rubber market on Tuesday.

* Kerala government is set to raise the guarantee price for RSS4 grade rubber under Rubber Production Incentive Scheme from existing Rs.150 a kg to Rs.170 a kg with effective from April 1, 2021 as per the state budget presented on Jan 15, 2021.

* Global production of natural rubber in January is expected to recover to 1.19 mln tn from 1.05 mln tn a year ago, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a release. Globally, consumption of natural rubber during the month is likely to increase 15.5% on year to 1.17 mln tn, the release said. During Jan-Nov 2020, global production of natural rubber contracted 8.3% on year to 11.37 mln tn, while global consumption posted a fall of 7.9% on year to 11.66 mln tn. For December 2020, production of natural rubber is likely to fall 8.9% on year. However, consumption is likely to recover 3.6% to 1.16 mln tn.

 


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