Hold Escorts Ltd For Target Rs.1,325 - ICICI Direct
Subdued tractor outlook to weigh…
About the stock: Escorts is India’s fourth largest tractor maker (11.3% FY21 market share) and also serves the domestic construction equipment, railways space.
* FY21 sales mix – tractors 82%, construction equipment 11%, railways 7%
* Past five year CAGR: 44.9%, 59.8% in EBITDA, PAT; cash positive b/s
Q1FY22 Results: The company posted a relatively healthy Q1FY22 performance.
* Total operating income declined 24.4% QoQ to | 1,672 crore
* Margins dipped 164 bps sequentially to 14%
* Consequent PAT was lower by 34.3% QoQ to | 175 crore
What should investors do?
The share price of Escorts has grown >4x over last five years from ~| 270 levels in August 2016, vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.
* We retain HOLD rating given muted outlook for core tractor business
Target Price and Valuation: We value Escorts at revised SOTP-based TP of | 1,325 (15x P/E on core FY23E EPS, 30% discount on treasury shares; earlier TP | 1,140).
Key triggers for future price performance:
* Expect 11% tractor revenue CAGR over FY21-23E (7.5% volume CAGR), constrained by high installed base despite favourable macro tailwinds
* Construction equipment (CE), railways (RED) growth to be faster amid expected pick-up in economic activity and positive outlook for mining, construction, road building and general infra push by government
* Limited potential for incremental operating leverage gains in tractors along with lower contribution from tractors to keep margin prospects muted
* Optimum utilisation of surplus cash on b/s could be a large value driver
Alternate Stock Idea: In our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.
* Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
* BUY with a target price of | 1,000
To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here
https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
