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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:22:06 AM

Aluminum

MCX Aluminium has traded on a positive note last month and closed marginally higher by approximately 1.50% at Rs.139.10 level. Metal is likely to trade sideways to negative with strong resistance at Rs.144 levels and immediate resistance is places at Rs.142.50 zone while supports are placed at Rs.135 - 130 zone. Momentum indicators RSI is showing weakness at current levels for short to medium term. Thus any rallies towards the intermediate resistance zone of Rs.142.50 should be used as an opportunity to sell the metal. Strong resistance on LME is pegged at $1752 whereas support is at $1680 level.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:21:52 AM

Nickel

MCX Nickel traded on a negative note for the month of Jan 2020 and closed lower by approximately 9% at Rs.944 level as compared to previous month. On the daily chart Momentum oscillator - MACD is trading below zero line and RSI is trading below 60 levels which suggests further weakness in prices in coming days. Looking ahead, the metal could continue to remain sideways to negative as far as it is able to sustain below immediate resistance level of Rs.980. Strong resistance for the metal is placed at Rs.980 - 1020 level while strong support is placed at Rs.920 - 890 level. Thus Sell on rallies is advised targeting support level of Rs.920 – 890. As per LME strong resistance are placed at $13300 -13700 range whereas supports are placed at $12500 – 12150 levels. 16

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:21:36 AM

Lead

MCX Lead traded with negative bias in month of Jan 2020 and closed lower by approximately 4% at Rs.148 level. On the daily chart Momentum oscillator – RSI is continuously trading below 60 level which suggests further weakness in prices. Going ahead, prices are likely to trade with sideways to negative bias with immediate support at Rs.145 and immediate resistance at Rs.151. Strong support for the metal is placed at Rs.143.20 – 141 levels while strong resistance at Rs.153.50 – 155 levels. Price sustainability below immediate support level of Rs.145 will give further momentum to prices towards Rs.143.20 levels. It is advised to sell on rallies targeting support level of Rs.143.20 – 141. As per LME strong support are placed at $1800 – 1760 range whereas resistance are placed at $1915 – 1955 levels.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:21:27 AM

Zinc

MCX Zinc traded on a negative note in the month of Jan 2020 and closed lower by 2.9% as compared to previous month’s close. On Daily chart momentum oscillators MACD is trading in negative zone and RSI trading below 60 levels suggests further weakness in price. Going ahead, prices are likely to remain sideways to negative with immediate support at Rs.172 and immediate resistance at Rs.179 levels. Major support is placed at Rs.167 and important resistance at Rs.183 level. Price sustainability below immediate support of Rs.172 will give further momentum towards next support level of Rs.167. Thus sell on rallies is suggested targeting lower support zone of Rs.167 – 164.50 levels. Strong support on LME is placed at $2160 – $2100 zone whereas resistance is at $2260 – $2310 zone.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:21:12 AM

Copper

MCX Copper traded on a negative note last month and closed lower by approximately 4% at Rs.427.25 level. Going ahead, metal is likely to face immediate resistance at Rs.433 and support is placed at Rs.421 level. Prices may continue its downward journey and may test the support zone of Rs.421 level as the momentum indicators RSI & MACD are showing weakness at current levels from short term perspective. Going forward, important resistance is placed at Rs.438 level and major support at Rs.416 level. It is recommended to sell on rallies targeting support level of Rs.421 – 416. As per LME strong resistance are placed at $5700 – $5810 range whereas supports are placed at $5500 – $5420 levels.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:21:00 AM

Natural Gas

Prices continued its weakness for third consecutive month, fall down by more than 11% closing at Rs.138.20. Counter on daily chart is trading in downward sloping channel forming lower highs and lower lows pattern which signifies weakness. Both momentum indicators RSI&MACD are indicating further weakness in price for medium term. Short-term resistance is at Rs.141.50 whereas major resistance is capped at Rs.151.50. Overall bias still remains weak and initial pullback towards Rs.135 – 137.50 zone will be used as good selling opportunity. The counter is likely to target Rs.121.50 – 115 levels in medium term. Trend reversal will only be seen if price break and sustains above resistance mark at Rs.151.50. 15

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:20:48 AM

Crude Oil

MCX Crude oil was weakest counter amongst commodities falling sharply from its peak of Rs.4670 marked in first week of previous month. It has fallen by around 16% closing at Rs.3683. On weekly chart, the momentum indicator RSI is still indicating weakness in price and MACD is also conforming same. The counter is trading close to strong support of Rs.3600 and price sustained break below same will confirm further weakness in price towards Rs.3510 – 3430 area. Immediate resistance is at Rs.3825 whereas strong resistance is capped at Rs.3950. Selling below support is recommended for medium term. On NYMEX, strong support is placed at $50.15 – 49.70 zone and price sustained break below same will confirm further weakness towards $47 – 46.50 area. Resistance is capped at $53.30 – 54.50

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:20:31 AM

Silver

MCX Silver also traded with positive bias along with gold in the first week of preceding month, however the metal failed to extend its strength and turned lower closing at Rs.46989 marginally positive by around 0.60%. The metal has been underperforming when compared with gold and is not showing any signs of strength in price. Both the momentum indicators RSI & MACD are indicating a consolidative move in the near term. Supports are placed at Rs.45275 – 45000 zone whereas major support is placed at Rs.43500. Resistance is capped at Rs.47250 – 47400 levels. We expect a consolidation in the range of Rs.45000 – 47400 in medium term and price sustained break on either side will give further trend direction. Strong resistance on COMEX is capped at $18.35 – 18.55 whereas support is placed at $17.20 – 16.95.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 5/02/2020 11:20:18 AM

Gold

Gold traded with positive bias for 2nd consecutive month marking new high of Rs.41293. Overall counter was high by around 4.84% in preceding month. Initial profit booking could be seen after 2 straight months of rally, however downside will be limited around Rs.39900–39650 as it will act as strong support zone for medium term. The 14-period RSI is still sustaining at overbought zone on weekly chart and is not signifying any signs of trend reversal. Overall, trend still remains positive and buying on dip near support is recommended. Price sustained break above key resistance zone of Rs.41300-41425 will lead rally towards Rs.42350–42600 level in medium term. On COMEX, strong support is at $1535–1510 whereas immediate resistance is $1595.Price sustained break above resistance will extend move towards $1640-1685 level.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 24/01/2020 6:15:35 PM

Outlook:

The development over the next three weeks will be crucial for the crude oil markets as this has still not turned into epidemic. Once there is evidence that the outbreak is contained and thus the economic disruption is coming to an end, sentiment on oil should improve, bringing prices back up. But, if the number of cases getting infected increases, we might see further sell off in global markets. We expect prices recovering like we experienced in 2003 when prices were down nearly 20% at its trough during that epidemic, but the elevated level of fear ultimately subsided when pace of new cases reported slowed, with a total duration of the epidemic outbreak of approximately 5 months, before a quick recovery in regional activity.

On Long term perspective, we expect prices to remain under pressure in first half of next year, due to a forecast increase in global oil inventories. Prices are expected to rise in second half of next year due to forecasted global oil inventory draws and demand growth on back of modest acceleration of global economic growth. However, any marginal recovery in demand as a consequence will prove insufficient to propel prices higher in light of sharp acceleration in global supply growth. We continue to believe from a demand point of view that NYMEX WTI should lower towards US$52/bbl over the course of this quarter, but risk remain as geopolitical premium might push crude prices higher on account of retaliation from Iran which might bring disruption for Crude supply and prices can rally towards US$56/bbl.

 

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