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Published on 11/12/2019 9:46:26 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 11 December 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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Spices

* Jeera January futures on NCDEX ended marginally up on Tuesday on improvement in demand. However, it was mostly seen in varying in narrow range, probably awaiting fresh cues for further directional moves.

* The key spot market of Unjha, Gujarat will remain shut from December 16-23 on account of local festival.

* Area under the spice in Gujarat, the largest producer, was at 277,017 ha as on Monday, compared with 268,368 ha a year ago, state farm department data showed.

* National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has eased certain quality norms while modifying the contract specifications of jeera expiring from March 2020. Acceptable limit of the damaged, discolored, shriveled and immature jeera seeds has been raised to a maximum of 4.5% from 2.0%. The acceptable moisture content will now be up to 9.5% compared with 8.0% for contracts expiring until January. The quality norms were modified "to keep the contract in line with the physical market practices," a circular said. NCDEX has, however, reduced the permissible foreign matter content in jeera to a maximum of 1.0%.

* Coriander January futures on NCDEX ended more than two per cent up on Tuesday. Lag in sowing in Rajasthan, one of the key coriander producing state, lend support.

* Coriander acreage in Gujarat, the second-largest producer, was at 9,623 ha as on Monday, compared with 7,602 ha in the corresponding period last year, data from the state farm department showed.

* NCDEX has removed "less active" delivery centres for Coriander such as Jaipur, Guna and Baran. The revised terms for coriander will be applicable for the new crop contracts expiring from April 2020.

* Reports of stock damage in Nanded, Maharashtra lifted Turmeric futures on NCDEX on Tuesday. However, expectation of higher production this season weighed on, keeping gains under check.

* In Nizamabad, current season new Turmeric arrivals reported around 100,282 MT till 08th November compared to last year same period 81,088 MT, 23.67% reported up from last year.

* Cardamom MCX January futures posted losses for the first time in five days on Tuesday. The commodity may have probably came under profit booking after rising for the last four consecutive sessions.

 

OilSeed

* Mixed sentiments witnessed on oilseed complex on yesterday. More active Jan soybean prices hit new three and half month high due to improved demand in the spot market amid worries over dip in output. Moreover, fall in arrivals in the spot market also supported the prices. Whereas, Jan Mustard futures witnessed a choppy trading session and later closed the day in positive note on back of improved demand at lower price levels amid lower arrivals.

* Imports of mustard oil were 75% lower on year at 59,171 tn in 2018-19 (Nov-Oct), according to data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.  Mustard acreage has narrowed at 5.91 mln ha as of last week against 6.024 mln ha in the year-ago period, according to agriculture ministry.

* Soybean Processors Association of India pegged soybean production at 8.9 mln tn this year, down 18% from 2018-19.

* India's soymeal exports fell around 85% on year to 50,000 tn in November, according to The Soybean Processors' Association of India data. The decline was due to disparity between global and domestic prices. During Oct-Nov, India exported 113,000 tn soymeal against 457,000 tn during the corresponding period last year.

* India's exports of mustard meal in October jumped 26% on year to 44,010 tn owing to firm demand from South Korea, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.  During Apr-Nov, soymeal exports were at 437,275 tn, against 753,954 tn a year ago, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India data.

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its 2019-20 projection for global soybean production to 336.56 mln tn in its November estimates compared with 338.97 mln tn. At 336.56 mln tn, the production is likely to be 6% lower from the previous year.

* India's vegetable oil imports in September fell nearly 13% on year to 1.30 mln tn, and comprised 1.25 mln tn of edible oils and 49,533 tn of non-edible oils, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. In the NovSep period, vegetable oil imports were up 3% on year at 14.17 mln tn, and mainly comprised 13.58 mln tn of edible oil.

* import of RBD palmolein rose 8% on year to 264,308 tn, and that of crude palm oil fell nearly 10% on year, while import of crude soyoil was down 27.5%. As of Oct 1, India had 1.06 mln tn of edible oil lying at ports and another 740,000 tn in the pipeline. The country requires 1.9 mln tn of edible oil per month, while current stocks of 1.8 mln tn are enough to meet the demand for 28 days, the association said.

* The SEA reported that mustard meal exports were 19% higher on year at 93,837 tn in July.

* Mustard seed crushing by mills in India jumped 22.2% on year to 550,000 tn in November, according to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

* National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has decided to "tentatively" offload 747,480 tn of mustard and 983,406 tn of chana over the next three months.

* The area under kharif castor seed crop was down 21.9% on year at 189,500 ha in the week ended Thursday, according to data from the farm ministry, due to slower pace of sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan,

* According to the SEA report, castor oil exports in the month of June 2019 is 50.57 Thousand MT which is 18 per cent higher than the exports of May 2019 of 42.86 Thousand MT. Castor oil exports in financial year 2018-19 is 5.72 Lakh MT which is 12.1 per cent lower than the last year exports of 6.51 Lakh MT.

* According to the SEA report, The export of oilmeals during July 2019 is at 166,301 tons compared to 215,716 tons in July, 2018 i.e. down by 23%. The overall export of oilmeals during AprilJuly 2019 is reported at 851,070 tons compared to 966,874 tons in April-July 2018 i.e. down by 12%. The export of castorseed meal has increased to 229,820(75,597) tons, being mainly exported to South Korea. Apart from South Korea, France, Vietnam and Thailand are major importers.

* As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT which is 21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 14.33 Lakh MT.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output fell 2.5% on month to 1.8 mln tn in October, according to Malaysia Palm Oil Board data. Inventory of processed palm oil in the country was at 1.1 mln tn in October against 1.0 mln tn a month ago, while crude palm oil stock in October was at 1.4 mln tn, down 2.2% on month. Malaysia's palm oil exports in October rose over 16% on month to 1.6 mln tn, while biodiesel exports fell over 60% on month to 21,664 tn, the data.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were estimated at 1.4 mln tn, down 7.4% on month, according to the private cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri.

 

Cotton

* Cotton arrivals across India's spot markets were estimated at 207,500 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) yesterday, higher than 205,000 bales on Monday.

* MCX Clearing Corp has de-accredited Origo Commodities India Pvt Ltd at Rajkot in Gujarat for delivery of cotton bales from Wednesday, according to an exchange circular.

* Cotton trade publication Cotlook has adjusted its outlook for world cotton production slightly down this month - placing it at 26.25M metric tons, down 245,000 tons from a month ago. Even so, consumption is still at 25.6M tons, making the cotton surplus still relatively sizable according to Cotlook.

* The Cotton Advisory Board estimated India's 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) cotton production to rise by 9.1% to 36 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) due to an increase in acreage this year. The board pegged this year's imports at 2.5 mln bales as against 3.1 mln bales last year. The board also pegged India's total consumption at 38.1 mln bales, compared with 35.95 mln bales last year. The closing stock has been estimated higher at 4.8 mln bales as against 4.4 mln bales for the previous year, mainly on account of increased output.

* The advisory board pegged cotton exports at 5.0 mln bales as against 4.4 mln bales last year.

* The Foreign Agricultural Service India, an arm of the US Department of Agriculture, has scaled up its estimate for cotton production in India in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) to 38.1 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 37.8 mln bales projected the previous month. India's cotton acreage is at a record high of 13 mln ha. The average yield is also expected to rise to 497 kg per ha from 458 kg last year.

* Cotton Corp of India has procured around 100,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) of cotton so far in season started October. The official said procurement is likely to gather pace from middle of December once good quality cotton enters the markets. Currently, daily cotton arrivals in spot markets of India were estimated at 115,000 bales. The daily supply is seen rising to 200,000 bales from December. The corporation had procured 1.1 mln bales of cotton last year of which 850,000-900,000 bales remain unsold.

* The Cotton Association of India has estimated the country's crop for 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) season at 35.45 mln bales, up 13.6% on year due to an increase in area under the crop, and better yield. India's cotton acreage has increased by 5.3% to 12.71 mln ha. However, the percentage of Bt cotton acreage in the total area has gone up to 94% due to increased area under herbicide-tolerant Bt cotton. This is expected to boost the overall yield over the last year. India's total consumption to 31.5 mln bales, up around 350,000 bales from last year with mills seen consuming 27.6 mln bales, higher than 27.45 mln bales a year ago. The numbers are optimistic, given the slowdown in the textile sector, as indicated by the near 38% decline in cotton yarn exports in Apr-Sep. The yearending stock has been estimated higher at 4.6 mln bales from 2.3 mln bales for the previous year, mainly on account of increased output.

* Cotton sowing across the country was up 5.5% on year at 12.8 mln ha, according to the latest data released by the farm ministry.

* UK-based Cotton Outlook has raised its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production to 6.2 mln tn from 6.1 mln tn seen earlier. The latest estimate, given in the September report of the agency, is also around 8% higher on year. Cotton Outlook, however, has cut its estimate for global production to 26.5 mln tn from 26.7 mln tn seen earlier, mainly due to possibility of lower crop in the US and Pakistan. US crop is seen at 4.8 mln tn, down from 4.9 mln tn projected in August. In 2018-19, global cotton production was at 25.5 mln tn. The agency has also lowered its 2019-20 global cotton consumption estimate to 25.6 mln tn from 25.7 mln tn seen in August. Ending stock levels are now seen at 916,000 tn, compared with 960,000 tn projected earlier.

 

Others

* Farmers in the country have sown chana across 7.2 mln ha as of Wednesday, down 6.2% on year, farm ministry data showed.

* The area under chana in key growing states of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka fell to 28.6%, 18.1%, and 11.4%, respectively, from a year-ago period, data showed. Chana production in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) was aimed at 11.6 mln tn against 10.13 mln tn estimated last year, according to data from the farm ministry.

* Chickpeas production in Canada is expected to decline to 2.63 lakh MT in 2019-20 due to lower area coverage and yield. Kabuli types production would decrease while desi type may increase slightly from last year. Total supply would increase due to higher carryout stock. Export from Canada may touch 1.5lakh MT in 2019-20.

* In Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer of chana in the country, acreage was 532,000 ha, 61% lower on year. In Maharashtra, the second largest producer, chana acreage was more than 80% on year lower at just 46,900 ha as of Wednesday. The acreage in Karnataka was marginally down at 672,000 ha. In Uttar Pradesh, acreage was down by 18% on year at 282,800 ha as rainfall was 43% below average in the state since Oct 1. In Rajasthan, another key producer of chana, the acreage was up more than 85% on year at 1.40 mln ha.

* National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has decided to "tentatively" offload 747,480 tn of mustard and 983,406 tn of chana over the next three months, the agency said in a statement on its website. The agency has about 1.7 -1.8 mln tn chana in stock, of which it wants to offload nearly 1 mln tn to keep prices in check, a NAFED official said.

* The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange has modified tick and lot sizes of guar seed. Lot size of guar seed will be five ton vs 10 tonne earlier and tick size will be 2 rupees vs 50 paise.

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has decreased in the month of September-19. Exports in the month of September-19 are down by around 28.91% compared to previous month. India exported around 2460 tonnes of guar split in the month of September -19 at an average FoB of $ 1425.03 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 1540 tonnes have been exported to China.

* As per trade sources, export of guar gum has increased in the month of September-19 by 13.70 percent compared to previous month. India exported around 21532 tonnes of guar gum at an average FoB of $ 1722.53 per tonne in the month of September-19 compared to 18937 tonnes in August-19 at an average FoB of $ 1729.66 per tonne. Exports are expected to remain at slightly higher in October-19.

 

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