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Gold

Gold ended marginally lower by 0.04% at 97,775, pausing their recent gains as profit booking emerged amid ongoing global trade uncertainty. Sentiment remains fragile after US President Trump unveiled a fresh 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, following last week’s sweeping tariff package on over 20 countries. While there is hope these tariffs could soften through negotiations, persistent trade frictions are fuelling broader market volatility, keeping investors cautious ahead of key US economic data releases such as CPI, PPI, industrial output, and retail sales this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. On the physical side, demand in Asia stayed muted due to price swings and seasonal factors. In China, the top consumer, premiums held at $10–$25 an ounce, steady from last week’s $4.2–$33 range. India’s discounts narrowed to $8 an ounce from last week’s $14, reflecting tight local supplies amid lower imports and scrap availability. Typically, Indian gold demand remains quiet during the monsoon season. On the investment front, gold ETFs saw robust inflows of $38 billion in the first half of 2025—the strongest since early 2020—highlighting continued investor interest despite high-rate headwinds last year. Technically, gold is under long liquidation as open interest fell 7.45% to 11,528 while prices slipped 43. Immediate support lies at 97,430, below which prices may test 97,080. Resistance is expected at 98,290, with a breakout likely pushing prices toward 98,800.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 97080-98800.

* Gold pared gains on profit booking after prices gained amid persistent trade uncertainty.

* Trump set a 30% tariff on EU and Mexico, citing large US trade deficits.

* EU and Mexico called the tariffs unfair, with EU extending countermeasure suspensions into August.

Silver

Silver settled marginally lower by 0.06% at 112,936 as profit booking emerged after prices tested recent highs, supported by renewed global trade tensions and robust safe-haven demand. The trigger for last week’s surge came from US President Trump’s announcement of a fresh 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, escalating global protectionist risks. In response, the EU is reportedly engaging other affected nations for a coordinated strategy, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty that continues to underpin safe-haven metals like silver. Traders, however, turned cautious ahead of this week’s key US inflation data, which could influence the Fed’s policy path. Mixed signals on the monetary front also kept markets jittery. Economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s remark that Trump could remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell if “there’s cause” added to speculation about the central bank’s independence. On the physical side, silver remains well-supported by robust retail and ETP inflows. Indian silver ETF investments attracted 39.25 billion in Q2, outpacing gold, while retail demand grew 7% year-on-year. Imports surged 431% in May, underscoring sustained investor interest. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest dropping 4.86% to 21,645, indicating traders are booking profits near highs. Immediate support lies at 111,995, with deeper support at 111,055. Resistance is pegged at 114,505, above which prices could test 116,075.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 111055-116075.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after reaching their highest levels amid renewed global trade tensions.

* Indian retail investment demand rose 7% in the first half of 2025 on the year.

* Silver imports jumped 431% in May on the year to 544.1 tons, while gold imports fell 25% to 30.5 tons.

Crude oil

Crude oil ended lower by 1.87% at 5,771, pressured by renewed concerns that escalating US tariffs could hamper global economic growth and consequently dampen oil demand. President Trump’s announcement of fresh 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, effective August 1, added to the market’s worries, reinforcing trade uncertainty that already weighs on investor sentiment. However, the downside was partially cushioned by signs of tightening global supply. Russia’s seaborne oil product exports dipped by 3.4% in June, and reports of more stringent EU sanctions—including a lower price cap on Russian oil—kept supply risks alive. China’s robust crude import figures also lent support, with June imports climbing 7.1% month-on-month and 7.4% year-on-year to 12.14 million barrels per day as refineries ramped up post-maintenance and restocked Iranian barrels. Meanwhile, the latest EIA data showed an unexpected 7.1 million-barrel build in US crude stocks, countering expectations of a draw, though gasoline and distillate inventories fell, reflecting steady end-user demand. Technically, the crude oil market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by 23.1% to 7,600, indicating traders are unwinding positions amid profit-taking and uncertain cues. Immediate support is seen at 5,689, below which prices may test 5,606. Resistance is placed at 5,924, and a breakout above could push prices towards 6,076 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5606-6076.

* Crude oil dropped amid concerns that US tariffs could weigh on economic growth and curb oil demand.

* Investors eyed further U.S. sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies

* China’s crude oil imports rebounded in June and were up month-on-month and year-on-year.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled sharply higher by 4.79% at 299.6, extending gains as strong LNG export flows and forecasts for persistent heat waves across the US boosted demand expectations. So far in July, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants have averaged 15.6 bcfd, as multiple facilities returned to full capacity following seasonal maintenance and unplanned outages. Robust LNG demand continues to support prices, with the EIA projecting average LNG exports to reach a record 14.6 bcfd in 2025, rising further to 16.0 bcfd in 2026—up from 11.9 bcfd in 2024. Weather forecasts indicate hotter-than-average conditions will linger across the Lower 48 states through late July, implying stronger demand for air conditioning and, in turn, higher gas-fired power generation. On the storage front, US utilities injected 53 bcf into storage for the week ending July 4, in line with the five-year average and slightly below the same period last year, keeping total stocks 6.1% above the seasonal norm at 3.006 tcf. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped sharply by 29.7% to 18,293 while prices surged by 13.7, signaling traders closing out earlier shorts amid stronger fundamentals. Immediate support is pegged at 291.5, with deeper support at 283.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 304.5, and a break above could lift prices towards 309.3 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 283.3-309.3.

* Natural gas rose driven by rising LNG export flows and forecasts for hotter-than-average weather

* Gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants averaged 15.6 bcfd in July so far.

* Warmer weather forecasts across the Lower 48 states suggest higher cooling demand will persist.

Copper

Copper settled marginally lower by 0.12% at 882.45 as renewed global trade tensions weighed on investor sentiment. The slight decline came after US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1, adding to last week’s surprise announcement of a 50% tariff specifically targeting copper imports. While the tariff move aims to bolster domestic copper production and cut reliance on refined imports, analysts caution that it could instead create supply bottlenecks given the US’s heavy dependence on imports and limited refining capacity, with only two smelters operating domestically. On the supply side, Chilean state-run Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, reported a healthy 9% rise in output for the first half of 2025, driven by a 14% jump in production at its El Teniente mine. Despite this, the global refined copper market slipped into a deficit of 50,000 metric tons in April, reversing a surplus in March, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). When adjusted for shifts in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, the market showed a similar deficit. China’s copper imports rose by 8.7% in June after a two-month dip, reaching 464,000 metric tonnes. Technically, the copper market is under long liquidation as open interest fell 6.45% to 6,790 contracts while prices slipped 1.1. Immediate support is seen at 878.5, with further downside possible to 874.5. On the upside, resistance is at 886.6, and a break above could see prices testing 890.7 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 874.5-890.7.

* Copper slipped as renewed global trade tensions dampened risk appetite.

* U.S. President Donald Trump's promised 50% copper tariffs are said to include all refined metal, Bloomberg reported.

* Comex copper speculators raise net long position by 4,743 contracts to 36,287 in week to July 8 - CFTC

Zinc

Zinc settled marginally lower by 0.17% at 258.15 as investors weighed the implications of renewed trade tensions and evolving supply dynamics. The decline came after US President Trump confirmed a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico starting August 1, intensifying global trade uncertainties that have left key trading partners with limited time to negotiate deals. This new tariff threat follows an earlier announcement of a 50% import duty on zinc, adding further pressure on market sentiment. On the domestic front, zinc inventories tracked by the Shanghai Exchange rose 10.2% from last week, reflecting a buildup in stockpiles amid persistent concerns over weak manufacturing demand in China. Buyers in China continue to limit purchases to immediate needs, while production at smelters in South China faced weather-related disruptions. On the supply side, tightness persists with Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine in Alaska reporting a 20% year-on-year drop in mined output for the first quarter, while Australian smelter Nyrstar announced a 25% cut in output due to uncompetitive treatment charges. Globally, the zinc surplus narrowed to 16,000 metric tons in April from 23,400 tons in March, as per International Lead and Zinc Study Group data. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation as open interest edged down by 0.15% to 2,629 lots, while prices eased by 0.45. Immediate support lies at 257, with further downside possible to 255.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 259.6, and a move above could push prices towards 260.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 255.7-260.9.

* Zinc dropped as investors assessed the impact of trade talks between the U.S. and its major partners.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.20% from last Friday

* Production at some smelters in South China was affected by heavy rain.

Aluminium

Aluminium edged lower by 0.16% to settle at 249.35, pressured by renewed concerns over global demand following fresh US tariffs. The announcement by President Trump of higher import duties has triggered fresh fears of an economic slowdown, overshadowing recent signs of steady supply adjustments. On the supply side, inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Exchange rose sharply by 9.1% last week, while LME aluminium stocks have jumped by 47,450 tonnes since June 25 to reach 384,350 tonnes, flipping the cash premium into a discount—a clear signal of ample supply in the market. Production trends remain mixed. China’s aluminium output in June dipped by 3.23% month-on-month as plants in Shandong temporarily shut down capacity for replacement projects, but annual production for May was up 5% year-on-year at 3.83 million metric tons. Year-to-date output stands at 18.59 million metric tons, marking a 4% increase from the same period in 2024. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell to 316,700 metric tons by end-June, down 4.3% month-on-month, suggesting steady port off-take despite subdued consumption. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation with open interest dropping 6.85% to 3,045 lots, as traders lock in profits. Aluminium is now finding immediate support at 248.3, with further downside towards 247.1 if selling pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 250.1; a break above could lift prices towards 250.7 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.1-250.7.

* Aluminium dropped amid worries about economic slowdown and demand growth caused by Trump’s tariffs.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 9.1% from last Friday.

* Global primary aluminium output rose 1.5% year-on-year in May to 6.245 million tonnes, IAI said.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy closed lower by 1.86% at 54,910 as higher closing stock projections and robust domestic output weighed on sentiment. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), the closing stocks for the 2024–25 season are estimated at 55.59 lakh bales—an 84% surge over last year’s 30.19 lakh bales. The upward revision in pressing numbers to 311.40 lakh bales from 301.14 lakh bales, due to better crop sizes in some states, is adding to supply-side pressure. Total supply till end-June stands at 356.76 lakh bales, with domestic consumption at 233.5 lakh bales and exports at 15.25 lakh bales, indicating ample availability. Notably, cotton imports have more than doubled this season, pegged at 39 lakh bales compared to last year’s 15.2 lakh bales, further amplifying supply. On the global front, the US July balance sheet shows higher production estimates and ending stocks for 2025–26, alongside a small cut in average yields due to mixed weather impacts. US production is projected at 14.6 million bales, slightly higher than last year, while the global cotton balance sheet also points to a production increase of 1.43 million bales led by China, the US, and Mexico. World ending stocks are raised by 520,000 bales, highlighting abundant supply despite moderate demand upticks in Pakistan and Mexico. Technically, Cottoncandy remains under long liquidation as open interest fell by 4.41% to 65 lots while prices declined 1,040. Immediate support is pegged at 54,870, below which prices may test 54,830. On the upside, resistance is seen at 54,980, with a move above opening the door for a test of 55,050.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 54830-55050.

* Cotton falls as 2024-25 closing stocks seen 84% higher at 55.59 lakh bales

* CAI cut consumption forecast by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh for the 2024–25 season.

* Cotton exports expected to fall to 15 lakh bales, down 13.36 lakh from last year.

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27267.1 Rupees gained by 0.15 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric slipped by 0.33% to close at 13,468 as traders booked profits amid expectations of increased sowing this season. Favorable rainfall has raised hopes of higher acreage, with early estimates suggesting a 15–20% rise as turmeric remains a more attractive option than other crops under current market conditions. Arrivals in the spot market also rose modestly to 13,660 quintals compared to 11,940 quintals in the previous session, indicating steady market supplies despite the season nearing its end. However, the downside remains limited due to quality and production concerns. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric cultivation has expanded to 3.30 lakh hectares, up from about 3 lakh hectares last year. Yet actual production gains may be muted as untimely rains threaten to lower yields by 10–15%, especially in regions like Nanded, where small rhizomes and crop rots are being reported. The 2023–24 output stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes. At the Duggirala market, buyers continue to pay premiums for new crop arrivals, which are fetching higher prices than older stock due to superior quality. Strong local demand and robust daily trade volumes of 1,000–Technically, turmeric is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 0.82% to 17,525 while prices dropped 44. Immediate support is at 13,334, below which prices may test 13,202. Resistance is seen at 13,674, and a break above could push prices toward 13,882.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13202-13882.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14042 Rupees dropped by -0.3 percent.

Jeera

Jeera closed lower by 0.51% at 19,600, extending losses as weak domestic and overseas demand weighed on prices following the end of the retail season. Market participants attributed the price softness to subdued buying activity from foreign buyers, which, combined with comfortable domestic supplies and sufficient carryover stock, kept sentiment under pressure. Despite easing geopolitical concerns in major jeera-producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan—where supply constraints persist—India’s export momentum remains tepid, limiting any significant upside in prices for now. Currently, farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, implying a sizeable carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for the current season indicate output in line with last year’s levels at around 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than the 1.10 crore bags harvested previously, owing to a reduction in sowing area but supported by good crop conditions. On the international front, April exports fell sharply by 48% year-on-year to 19,719.60 tonnes but rose by 13.74% compared to March 2025, indicating some revival in overseas buying despite cautious sentiment. Global competition from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remains moderate, with adverse weather affecting their production outlooks. Technically, jeera is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 6.33% to 4,989 while prices dropped 100. Immediate support is seen at 19,470, below which prices may test 19,330. Resistance is likely at 19,790, and a break above this could push prices toward 19,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19330-19970.

* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* However downside seen limited on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20152.65 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views