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Gold

yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 59420 as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields gained after traders digested Friday's jobs report, with attention turning to U.S. inflation data later this week. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, data showed, but solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate back to 3.5% pointed to continued tightness in labor market conditions. During the first half of 2023, global central banks achieved a historic milestone by significantly increasing their gold reserves. According to data gathered by the World Gold Council, their combined net gold purchases reached an impressive 387 tons. This figure marks the highest amount ever recorded for a first-half period since the Council began compiling quarterly data in 2000. Venezuela's gold reserves fell by eight metric tons in the year's first half, central bank data showed, continuing a years-long reduction in the reserves amid a prolonged economic crisis. The drop in the first six months of 2023 brought the central bank's total reserves to 61 tons, down from 69 tons in December 2022. The gold reserves were valued at $3.65 billion at the end of June, down $261 million from their value in December. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.82% to settle at 14253 while prices are down -107 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59299 and below same could see a test of 59179 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59553, a move above could see prices testing 59687.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59179-59687.
* Gold steadied as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields gained
* The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, data showed
* The first half of the year saw the greatest demand for gold from central banks ever recorded



Silver

yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 71268 as the dollar gained traction and Treasury yields rose as focus shifted to key inflation readings due this week. While payrolls fell more than expected in July, a surprise dip in unemployment and strong wage growth indicated that the labor market remains tight. Some hawkish comments from Fed member Michelle Bowman were heard over the weekend. She warned more rate hikes "will likely be needed," a contrast with other Fed officials advocating wait-and-see. The governor is "looking for consistent evidence" that inflation continues to moderate. Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee said after slower job growth data that the labor market is becoming better balanced, so the FOMC can afford to be patient. Amid much uncertainty about the outlook for global growth and rates, investors now await China's trade balance figures and inflation readings from the United States and China for direction. The U.S. consumer price inflation report for July is slated to be released on Thursday and the producer price inflation report, as investors seek further clarity on the path of inflation and the health of the world's largest economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.51% to settle at 18071 while prices are down -1210 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70762 and below same could see a test of 70255 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72064, a move above could see prices testing 72859.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70255-72859.
* Silver prices edged lower as the dollar gained as focus shifted to key inflation readings due this week.
* Fed's Williams: rates could come down next year
* Some Fed members still leaning hawkish



Crude oil

yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 6806 on profit booking after prices gained amid pledges by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend supply cuts through September. The world's top exporter Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of September, and said more could follow. In line with production cuts, Saudi Aramco raised on Saturday the official selling prices for most grades it sells to Asia for a third month in September. Russia added to the supply tightness with its announcement it will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. U.S. crude stocks fell the most on record last week as exports topped 5 million barrels per day and refineries processed more crude, the Energy Information Administration said. Most of the fall in crude stocks came from a record drop in stockpiles held in the refining hubs of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Stocks there fell by 15.57 million barrels as refiners in the region processed the most crude since August 2022, the EIA said. U.S. crude inventories fell by 17 million barrels to 439.8 million barrels, compared with expectations in a poll of a 1.4 million-barrel drop. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.46% to settle at 8169 while prices are down -53 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6754 and below same could see a test of 6701 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6856, a move above could see prices testing 6905.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6701-6905.
* Crude oil dips on profit booking after Saudi Arabia, Russia extend supply cuts.
* Saudi Arabia, Russia extend supply cuts
* Supply risks could rise as Russia-Ukraine tensions heighten



Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 7.1% at 227.8 on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter than normal through mid-August, keeping air conditioning demand extremely high, especially in Texas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, the same as in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 19. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold at 104.8 bcfd this week and next before rising to 106.9 bcfd as power generators burn more of the fuel and exports rise. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged around a record of 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in June, driven by hot weather which increased demand in Mexico's electric power sector, the Energy information Administration (EIA) said. The release also noted that exports to Mexico have grown in the recent years as the domestic pipeline network within Mexico continues to expand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -38.41% to settle at 24519 while prices are up 15.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 218 and below same could see a test of 208.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 232.8, a move above could see prices testing 237.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 208.3-237.9.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August
* U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico hit monthly record in June – EIA




Copper

yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 737.45 amid pressure from a steady dollar and investors cautiously waiting for economic data from the U.S. and China this week for more clues on demand outlook. A mixed jobs report showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, but solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate back to 3.5% pointed to continued tightness in labor market conditions. Chile, saw exports of the red metal reach $3.36 billion in July, down 2.8% from a year earlier, the central bank said. In China, market tightness bolstered copper premium in spot market to a one-month high last week at 285 yuan a metric ton. Supply is expected to improve in August as many smelters resume production after summer maintenance. The global refined copper market showed a 65,000 metric tons deficit in May, compared with a 33,000 metric tons surplus in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 287,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 74,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.98% to settle at 5352 while prices are down -2.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 734.9 and below same could see a test of 732.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 741.3, a move above could see prices testing 745.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 732.2-745.
* Copper falls on strong dollar, cautious investors await US-China data for clues.
* Chile saw exports of copper reach $3.36 billion in July, down 2.8% from a year earlier.
* In China, market tightness bolstered copper premium in spot market to a one-month high last week at 285 yuan a metric ton.



Zinc

yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 223.45 as weak manufacturing data and a struggling property sector in top consumer China soured sentiment. The dollar strengthened after a survey from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter, a sign rising interest rates are having an impact on the economy. Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, as both the US and Europe continue to grapple with inflation and tight monetary policies. Simultaneously, global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.08% to settle at 3530 while prices are down -0.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 222.4 and below same could see a test of 221.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 224.5, a move above could see prices testing 225.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 221.3-225.5.
* Zinc dropped amid weak China manufacturing and lack of stimulus measures
* Pledges from the Chinese authorities to boost the country's troubled property sector.
* Global zinc market surplus falls to 53,000 metric tons in May – ILZSG




Aluminium

yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 202.15 as supply in Yunnan increased rapidly, aluminium supply pressure may gradually emerge. Due to floods and other factors in the north during the week, fewer aluminium ingot arrivals were reported, and aluminium social stocks shrank. In order to boost demand, there may be more favorable policies to be poured out in China in the future. China’s favorable policies have promoted real estate, automobile, and other related consumption to gradually pick up. However, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan is speeding up, and it is expected that some large smelters in the region will be able to produce at full capacity by the end of August, potentially fueling the total domestic operating capacity to a record high. At present, the amount of resumed production is mainly liquid aluminum, and there is no large aluminum ingot oversupply pressure. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July to September was set at $127.5 per metric ton, near the previous quarter's levels, as local demand remained sluggish with ample stocks. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports were at 357,490 metric tons at the end of June, according to Marubeni, above the 250,000-300,000 tons that are considered appropriate. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.64% to settle at 3678 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.5 and below same could see a test of 200.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203, a move above could see prices testing 203.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.6-203.6.
* Aluminium steadied as Yunnan supply surges.
* Due to floods and other factors in the north during the week, fewer aluminium ingot arrivals were reported, and aluminium social stocks shrank.
* In order to boost demand, there may be more favorable policies to be poured out in China in the future.



Mentha oil

yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 878.1 on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.11% to settle at 915 while prices are up 0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 875.2 and below same could see a test of 872.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 880.1, a move above could see prices testing 882.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 872.2-882.
* 0
* Menthaoil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.



Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 16534 due to lower sowing acreage and lower ending stocks. Delayed monsoons and inadequate initial rainfall have hampered turmeric cultivation, potentially leading to higher prices shortly. A shortage in present market supply further contributes to this upward trend, with prices witnessing a staggering 60 percent increase over the past two months. Regions like Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, known for their robust turmeric production, have experienced heavy rain-induced crop damage. This unfortunate combination of factors raises concerns about a potential decrease in turmeric production, leading to escalated prices. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14052.1 Rupees dropped -182.25 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.19% to settle at 11320 while prices are up 222 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 15896 and below same could see a test of 15258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16936, a move above could see prices testing 17338.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15258-17338.
* Turmeric gains due to lower sowing acreage and lower ending stocks.
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14052.1 Rupees dropped -182.25 Rupees.



Jeera

yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 63115 on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. However, the cumin market is currently facing slow export and domestic demand. Due to heavy rains impacting cumin quality, there have been disruptions in the cumin business across Gujarat, Rajasthan, and other regions. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -139.4 Rupees to end at 62044.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.76% to settle at 4713 while prices are down -285 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 62740 and below same could see a test of 62370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63740, a move above could see prices testing 64370.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 62370-64370.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited due to the rainy environment.
* However, the cumin market is currently facing slow export and domestic demand.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -139.4 Rupees to end at 62044.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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