Which Pharma Players Will Lead the GLP-1 USD 156 Bn Opportunity? by Choice Broking Ltd
Which Pharma Players Will Lead the GLP-1 USD 156 Bn Opportunity?
GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide 1) has seen a sharp rise in global demand, fueled by its widespread adoption for diabetes management, weight loss, and cardiovascular risk reduction. The global GLP-1 market is projected to reach USD 156 Bn by 2030 (CAGR 30%), while India's market is expected to grow to USD 350 Mn (CAGR 25%)*. The GLP-1 market holds immense growth potential, expected to be driven by:
* Demand for branded formulation from Big Pharma: India players can leverage cost-efficient manufacturing, peptide expertise, and CRAMS to supply high-quality, affordable formulations to regulated markets like the US, Europe, and emerging economies.
* India anti-diabetic/weight loss opportunity: With India leading the world in diabetes (212 Mn cases as of 2022, per WHO) and obesity (70 Mn cases, per The Lancet), demand for GLP-1 drugs is set to surge. Market growth will be driven by combination therapies, longer-acting formulations, and broader treatment applications, making India a key expansion ground. Treatment costs of USD 162–203/month (recent Mounzaro launch) are far lower than the USD 1,086/month in the US, with generics potentially cutting prices by up to 80%, by mid-2026, boosting adoption.
We believe DRRD, SUNP, and DIVI are best positioned to capitalize on India's growing GLP-1 opportunity. DRRD is expected to benefit from an early generic launch by mid-2026, gaining a first-mover advantage in the Indian market. Meanwhile, SUNP, despite a delayed entry, is likely to emerge as the long-term winner due to its novel innovation (Utreglutide) and strong execution capabilities. Additionally, DIVI is set to benefit indirectly as a key API supplier, leveraging its large-scale manufacturing capabilities to secure lucrative CDMO contracts amid rising global demand for GLP-1 drugs. Read next page for more information on GLP-1
Indian Pharma Gears Up for GLP-1 Generic Boom Post-2026
Mounjaro’s India exclusivity ends in January 2026, unlocking a major opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical players to enter the GLP-1 market with generics. We expect the arrival of these generics is expected to cut prices by up to 80%. Several leading Indian pharma companies are already gearing up to launch their own GLP-1 formulations, aiming to capture a significant share of this rapidly expanding market. Key players have already initiated R&D, manufacturing, and regulatory approvals to ensure a timely entry.
GLP-1 The Game-Changer in Diabetes and Weight Loss
GLP-1 agonists are breakthrough drugs that mimic natural gut hormones to regulate blood sugar and appetite. They stimulate insulin release, suppress glucagon, and slow digestion, leading to better glucose control and significant weight loss. Originally designed for diabetes, their powerful weight-management effects have made them a global sensation, redefining metabolic care.
Blockbuster GLP-1 Therapies Dominating the Global Market
The global GLP-1 market is led by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with blockbuster drugs like Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) and Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) driving multi-billion dollar sales. These drugs have demonstrated exceptional efficacy in diabetes and weight loss management, with Tirzepatide emerging as a strong competitor to Semaglutide due to its dual-action mechanism. Below is an overview of the key GLP-1 therapies that have shaped the current market landscape:
Mounjaro Shakes Up India’s GLP-1 Market
Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (Tirzepatide) has officially entered the Indian market as the first GLP-1 and GIP (Glucose-Dependent Insulinotropic Polypeptide) dual agonist, marking a significant breakthrough in the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity. This launch is poised to disrupt the GLP-1 market, intensifying competition and challenging existing players.
* The Battle for Market Dominance: Eli Lilly’s first-mover advantage with Mounjaro puts it ahead in the rapidly growing Indian GLP-1 market. However, the pharma giant won’t hold the throne for long—Indian drug makers like SUNP, DRRD, CIPLA, and LPC are gearing up to launch their own GLP-1 therapies, ensuring a crowded battlefield in the coming years.
* Cost Showdown: Pricing will be a key factor in Mounjaro’s adoption in India. Currently, a 5mg vial costs INR 13,500– 17,000 (USD 162–203) per month, already ~85% lower than the US price of USD 1,086 per month. With generic entry, prices could drop further to USD 101 per month (50% reduction) or USD 41 per month (80% reduction), making treatment significantly more affordable.
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